Stormlover74 Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 20 minutes ago, MANDA said: Exactly. Same for those of us with vegetable and flower gardens. Water tables and reservoir levels are not the issue, drying top soils are. Especially with peak sun angle in progress. Five to ten days with little or no rain this time of year means almost daily irrigation for those with agriculture interests. Tough on local farmers and will increase the costs to the consumer if they have to do long term steady irrigation. Drought monitor already shows some abnormally dry conditions creeping into south jersey. Hot and dry for 10 days will easily see that spread across the whole area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 23 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Been watering for only 10 minutes in the morning for about 2 weeks. "Conventional Wisdom" would say to water less often but to make sure to water at least 1" every few days. Based on observations of lawns with sprinkler systems watering everyday for short periods, these seem to do the best. Grass always seems to like rain water vs. potable water. I'm assuming the chlorine is not appreciated by the grass. Funny you mention about rain water vs. potable water for lawns. I have noticed that for years but never heard anyone else mention it. I also thought perhaps is was about chlorine. A crisping lawn will green up better and faster after a rain than with a sprinkler, at least that is what I have noticed. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 26 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Been watering for only 10 minutes in the morning for about 2 weeks. "Conventional Wisdom" would say to water less often but to make sure to water at least 1" every few days. Based on observations of lawns with sprinkler systems watering everyday for short periods, these seem to do the best. Grass always seems to like rain water vs. potable water. I'm assuming the chlorine is not appreciated by the grass. It all depends on how people/businesses set their systems really. Some do it everyday, some do the 1" every few days. I have a system and go with 1" every few days. Maybe the rain water just does a better job on some lawns since it is more evenly dispersed vs watering? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 38 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Drought monitor already shows some abnormally dry conditions creeping into south jersey. Hot and dry for 10 days will easily see that spread across the whole area That won't last very long but sure top soils will dry out, not unusual in the summer...especially early summer when sun is very strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 18 minutes ago, MANDA said: Funny you mention about rain water vs. potable water for lawns. I have noticed that for years but never heard anyone else mention it. I also thought perhaps is was about chlorine. A crisping lawn will green up better and faster after a rain than with a sprinkler, at least that is what I have noticed. I've always noticed the same thing with the vegetable garden. Rain water is a lot better than potable water. Obviously potable water will keep the garden going and in decent shape during dry periods, but it's not the same as getting rain. Especially during the spring when the garden is trying to get going, I always notice how much better the vegetable plants look in the couple days after a good rainfall. There's a significant growth spurt and they look much healthier. That doesn't happen after watering with potable water. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 So this is going to end up being a very long stretch without rain if Friday doesn't work out. Models still showing storms with the front Friday, so hopefully we'll get a decent soaking. We're really gonna need it. Father's Day Weekend weather looks great. Nice warm temps in the low-mid 80s and very comfortable with low humidity. Dewpoints could fall to the high 40s. Enjoy that before the hot pattern settles in next week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 70 / 50 with variable cloudy (coolest day of the next while). Warmer Wed (6/12) and by Thu (6/13) upper 80s to perhaps a 90/91 in the warmer spots if sunnier with recent dryness. Fri (6/14) near 90 and for some the first 90s, again depending on clouds and showers. Trough in /out Sat - Sun before warming. Overnight models are just hot vs near records heat next week with low - mid 90s and >17c 850MB with the +19C a bit south. Overall warming trend beings Wed with hotter period starting Mon (6/17). We'll see if the ridge centers more west or east and more southerly flow returns some rains with the heat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EWR757 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Heat wave cancel. Never ending pattern of shotgun grey strartocumulus, cyclonic rot and NW winds. 3 2 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 Cyclonic rot would make a great death metal band name 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 11 Author Share Posted June 11 Biggest negative departure at ewr since may 13th. -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with temperatures reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend will commence after midweek. Afterward, following a weekend with near normal temperatures from a brief push of somewhat cooler air, the potential exists for a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -11.88 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.039 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.3° (3.3° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Records Highs: EWR: 96 (2000) NYC: 95 (1973) LGA: 96 (1984) JFK: 93 (1984) Lows: 46 (1980) NYC: 46 (1972) LGA: 46 (1972) JFK: 48 (1980) Historical: 1842 - A late season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg VT. Berlin NH was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. (David Ludlum) 1842: A late-season snowstorm struck New England. Snow fell during the morning and early afternoon, accumulating to a depth of ten to twelve inches at Irasburg, Vermont. Berlin, New Hampshire was blanketed with eleven inches of snow during the day. Snow whitened the higher peaks of the Appalachians as far south as Maryland. The latest date for the occurrence of a general snowstorm in our period over northern New England and northern New York came in 1842 on the morning of 11 June. Zadock Thompson, a professor of natural history and the Queen City's longtime weatherman, commented: "Snow during the forenoon's boards whitened and the mountains as white as in winter." 1877 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, reached 112 degrees during a heatwave. It would have been the all-time record for Los Angeles but official records did not begin until twenty days later. (The Weather Channel) 1972 - Heavy showers brought 1.64 inches of rain to Phoenix AZ, a record for the month of June. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - South Texas endured another day of torrential rains. Up to twelve inches of rain drenched Harris County, and nearly ten inches soaked Luce Bayou, mainly during the afternoon hours. Thunderstorm rains left seven feet of water over Highway 189 in northern Val Verde County. Flooding caused nine million dollars damage in Real County. A thunderstorm at Perryton, TX, produced golf ball size hail and 70 mph winds, and spawned a tornado which struck a mobile killing one person and injuring the other four occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thirty cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including El Dorado, AR, with a reading of 48 degrees. Canaan Valley WV and Thomas WV dipped to 30 degrees. Flagstaff AZ was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 30 degrees. Coolidge, just 180 miles away, was the hot spot in the nation with an afternoon high of 105 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central and southeastern U.S. during the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes, including one which tore the roof off a restaurant at Bee Branch, AR, injuring six persons. The tornado tossed one car into the restaurant, and another car over it. Temperatures soared into the 90s across much of Florida. Lakeland reported a record high of 99 degrees for the second day in a row. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990: One of the most expensive hailstorms in U.S. history occurred as $625 million of damage was caused along the Colorado Front Range from Colorado Springs to Estes Park. Golf to baseball sized hail fell along with heavy rain. 60 people were injured in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 maybe we can get a nw flow event when the ridge flattens 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: maybe we can get a nw flow event when the ridge flattens beautiful weekend coming up.. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 All 3 models have the first 95° or higher temperatures of the season next week for the usual warm spots. But only the Euro goes over 100° and has a much stronger ridge. I like to wait and see if the other models come on board before knowing if the Euro is correct or overdone like it sometimes is beyond 120 hrs. Need to get the flow more SW and have the weak front further north for the Euro to be closer. The GFS has more convection and the CMC somewhere in middle. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: All 3 models have the first 95° or higher temperatures of the season next week for the usual warm spots. But only the Euro goes over 100° and has a much stronger ridge. I like to wait and see if the other models come on board before knowing if the Euro is correct or overdone like it sometimes is beyond 120 hrs. Need to get the flow more SW and have the weak front further north for the Euro to be closer. The GFS has more convection and the CMC somewhere in middle. Yep, I’d think we want a flatter ridge to keep the flow westerly and downslope for the high end heat. A steep ridge might cause it to be too southerly and promote daily convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 12 Author Share Posted June 12 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 70 / 57 and partly sunny. Opposite of other days where calling for mostly sunny was greeted with clouds Mon and Tue, today may see more sun than forecasted clouds w/ wsw flow. Back to near / 80s and the start of a warming trend. Near or to 90 in the warmer spots tomorrow withh sunny conditions and again Fri ahead of clouds / storms - if they come earlier Fri it my fall short of 90. The weekend looks dry as trough in / out 80s. Mon (6/17) start of a warm to hot period with ridging into the east - first heatwave of the season and perhaps strong heat mid/upper 90s by 6/19. Overall warm to hot persisting. We'll see where and how the ridge sets up if storms can keep it from becomming very dry. Jun looks to end +5 or more on the departure side. https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eus/02/GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMCNA_0z/test8.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 I'm looking for historic heat next week because the Euro has been hinting at it but the GFS is not showing it. Normally the GFS is the model that would go nuts with this kind of heat. But it's showing winds too southerly, looks like for coastal sections and the big cities relatively typical lower 90s if that and cooler at the shore. But Euro suggest the more westerly winds and higher temperatures. We'll see. The map below would be low-mid 90s for most of us big cities and closer to the coast. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 Situation where backdoor fronts can make it hotter because there is little if any genuinely cooler air behind them and they force the winds to go more west-northwesterly out ahead of them downsloping and compression making it hotter. Now I'm seeing some 100s. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 36 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: I'm looking for historic heat next week because the Euro has been hinting at it but the GFS is not showing it. Normally the GFS is the model that would go nuts with this kind of heat. But it's showing winds too southerly, looks like for coastal sections and the big cities relatively typical lower 90s if that and cooler at the shore. But Euro suggest the more westerly winds and higher temperatures. We'll see. The map below would be low-mid 90s for most of us big cities and closer to the coast. WX/PT If we really heat up for a while, by Aug if anything we’d want the westerly winds near the coast because the onshore flow just jacks up the humidity with little/any cooling. 93/75 or higher is worse than 98/68. Up here on the N shore is the worst of both worlds. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 40 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If we really heat up for a while, by Aug if anything we’d want the westerly winds near the coast because the onshore flow just jacks up the humidity with little/any cooling. 93/75 or higher is worse than 98/68. Up here on the N shore is the worst of both worlds. Yea there’s a 3 week period in there where we really suffer. Sea breeze fronts don’t cool us down and simply add to the humidity. Those days where we get storms popping on the sea breeze front. Late July to mid August 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 This is interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 The heat and boomers are coming soon 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 12z Euro has 100s area wide late next week. Even has 100 on LI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 On 6/4/2024 at 9:24 AM, Wxoutlooksblog said: Most of the heat this season IMO is likely to go over the top or be very short-lived. The jet stream is going to set up and already is set up further south of normal, the Bermuda HP further south and east of normal. This in combination with the recurrent upper low over eastern Canada and the nw Atlantic wrapping b-door fronts and the like, days of cyclonic flow and of course the blocking. I'm projecting 5-11 90+ days mostly from mid July to mid August. Of course overnight minimums will keep us above normal overall on temps. But I'm not seeing an extremely hot summer incoming. WX/PT This isn’t going to age very well looking at the long term. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 On 6/11/2024 at 11:14 AM, MANDA said: Funny you mention about rain water vs. potable water for lawns. I have noticed that for years but never heard anyone else mention it. I also thought perhaps is was about chlorine. A crisping lawn will green up better and faster after a rain than with a sprinkler, at least that is what I have noticed. I always chalked it up to God or nature being able to “water” much better than man can. Your 10-15 mins of water is nothing compared to a 10 minute downpour simply because you are watering a patch of grass but all the plants alongside that patch are pulling water from the soil with their roots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 32 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 12z Euro has 100s area wide late next week. Even has 100 on LI. No thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 12 Share Posted June 12 32 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: This isn’t going to age very well looking at the long term. EPS 5-day 850 temp anomalies has bulk of extreme heat NW of us into Ontario Canada FWIW. Eventually drops S into Ohio valley area later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now