June 2024

[winterwx21]

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Start watering now 

Yep I'm starting the watering today. Sucks that we're going into such a dry pattern. Hopefully we'll see storms with the front on Friday ... that looks like our only chance. We'll really be desperate for rain if that doesn't work out. 

[Stormlover74]

39 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep I'm starting the watering today. Sucks that we're going into such a dry pattern. Hopefully we'll see storms with the front on Friday ... that looks like our only chance. We'll really be desperate for rain if that doesn't work out. 

Yeah barely an inch the next 2 weeks. Of course depending on storms could end up higher or lower than that by a good amount 

[Allsnow]

The euro op today brings the heat 

 

Thur and Friday close to 90

The following week 100’s 

 

 

[FPizz]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The euro op today brings the heat 

 

Thur and Friday close to 90

The following week 100’s 

 

 

Wow, day 10 looking hot 

[MANDA]

A crisping lawns and wilting flowers watch is in effect.  Going to take some daily watering to keep things going later this week into next.  We've been lucky up until now but time is running out.  If things pan out as it appears it is a classic hot and dry pattern.  Humidity will be tolerable with west to northwest flow.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another comfortable day with the temperature topping out in the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Minimum temperatures will again start in the lower 60s in New York City and 50s outside the City. A warming trend will commence after midweek. Afterward, the potential exists for a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -19.47 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.933 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (3.2° above normal).

 

[ForestHillWx]

The past three days have been phenomenal; if I could bottle them up and open when needed, I would gladly do so. 

You cannot stop the match towards summer, but personally I can do without the HHH; oh well, I haven’t figured out how to control the weather yet. 

[Roger Smith]

With discussion of potential heat records later in June, here are daily records: 

 

<<< DAILY RECORDS NYC for JUNE >>>

 

Date ___ hi max ___ hi min _______ low max ____ low min ________ rain (24h)_ (48h)

Jun 01 ___ 96 1895 ___ 77 1895 _______ 58 1945,2015_44 1945 ___________ 2.60 1887 __3.13 1940 

Jun 02 ___ 96 1895 ___ 76 1895, 1918__ 52 1907,46__48 1880,1907,29,45.46 _ 2.79 2006 __3.78 2006 

Jun 03 ___ 95 1895 ___ 75 1943 _______ 53 1945 _____45 1929 (68) _______ 3.01 1996 __3.55 2006 

Jun 04 ___ 99 1925 ___ 78 1943 _______ 52 1945 _____48 1926 (58 5th) ___ 2.75 2003 __3.91 2007 (1.62+2.29)

Jun 05 ___ 99 1925 ___ 78 1925 _______ 55 1945 _____47 1945 ____________ 2.80 1992 __2.80 1992*

Jun 06 ___ 98 1925 ___ 77 1925 _______ 56 1894 _____47 1945 (70) _______ 2.62 2000 __2.90 1992 

Jun 07 ___ 96 1925 ___ 76 2021 _______ 61 1891,1905_47 1879 (64)_______ 4.16 2013 __ 4.29 2013 

Jun 08 ___ 95 1933 ___ 77 1984 _______ 56 1947 _____47 1932 ____________1.02 1900 __ 4.64 2013 

Jun 09 ___ 97 1933 ___ 77 1984 _______ 57 1916 _____47 1980 (63) _______ 2.55 1989 __2.63 1989 _ also 2.36" 2dR 1897

Jun 10 ___ 96 2008 ___ 79 1984 _______ 55 1881 _____49 1881, 1972 _____ 2.07 1881 ___2.85 1881 

 

Jun 11 ___ 95 1973 ___ 78 1984 _______ 57 1916 _____46 1972 (69) _______ 1.14 1911 ___2.09 1881 

Jun 12 ___ 93 1933,73,2017_76 2017 _____62 1924 _____48 1979 (69 11th) _ 2.18 1903,10_2.47 1910 (1903 2.26", 1911 2.04")

Jun 13 ___ 96 1961 ___ 77 2017 _______ 55 1982 _____51 1953 (63) _______ 1.71 1941 ___2.86 1998 (1.29+1.57)

Jun 14 ___ 99 1956 ___ 78 2005 _______ 59 1907 _____49 1875 (64 13th) __ 2.54 1917___2.54 1917*__ also 2.38" 1896 (1d)

Jun 15 ___ 96 1891,1988,94_76 1899,1945,56_60 1916,71__48 1933 ____________ 1.13 1915 ___2.57 1917 

Jun 16 ___ 97 1891 ___ 78 1891 _______ 62 1965 _____52 1927 ____________ 1.31 1972 ___1.36 1985 (.17+1.19)

Jun 17 ___ 96 1957 ___ 77 1957 _______ 61 1959 _____51 1926 ____________ 1.82 2011 ___1.82 2011*

Jun 18 ___ 95 1929 ___ 76 1957,2014 __63 1920 _____48 1950 (63 19th) __ 2.33 1871___2.33 1871*__ also 2.30" 2009 (1d)

Jun 19 ___ 98 1994 ___ 76 1993 _______ 59 1935 _____52 1920 ____________ 1.93 1934___3.18 1967 (2.15+1.03)

Jun 20 ___ 98 1923 ___ 76 1892 _______ 59 1958 _____49 1914 ____________ 1.39 1919___1.93 1934**

Jun 21 ___ 97 1953,88_ 79 2012 _______ 63 1958,2003_49 1897 (67)_______1.70 1902 ___1.70 1902*

Jun 22 ___ 98 1988 ___ 76 1941 _______ 62 1928,52 __ 52 1897, 1940 ______1.96 1887 ___2.54 1887 

Jun 23 ___ 96 1888 ___ 77 1888 _______ 59 1918 _____49 1918 ____________ 1.75 1887 ___3.71 1887 

Jun 24 ___ 96 1888 ___ 79 1909 _______ 59 1940 _____52 1881, 1932 ______ 1.46 1984 ___1.75 1887**

Jun 25 ___ 99 1943,52_ 78 1909 _______ 63 1974 _____53 1873 (62 24th)___1.19 1925 ___1.52 1984 

Jun 26 ___100 1952 ___ 81 1952 _______ 63 1893 _____56 1893, 1974,79 ___4.29 1884 ___4.74 1884 

Jun 27 ___101 1966 ___ 76 1943 _______ 61 1968 _____55 1940 ____________ 2.11 1932 ___4.29 1884** __ also 1.99"R 1919

Jun 28 ___ 96 1969,91 _ 77 1876,1943__ 60 1938 ___ 54 1888,93,1915,95 _ 1.69 1938 ___2.76 1938 

Jun 29 ___101 1934 ___ 78 2021 _______ 65 1903 _____52 1888, 1919 ______ 2.57 1903 ___2.57 1903*

Jun 30 ___ 99 1964 ___ 79 1945,59 _____65 1967 _____ 53 1919 ____________ 3.07 1984 ___3.07 1984*

____________________________________

* 48h rain record is set by same day's 24h record (no rain previous day)

** 48h rain record is set by previous day's 24h record (no rain on date listed)

Temps listed in brackets after low min (e.g. 67F 21st) are same day max not qualifying for low max record in adjacent column. On occasion a next-day or previous-day low max is listed. 

(June 29)_ 101 1934 replaced 98 1874. 

Note three day interval separating record low max and high max in 1952 (22nd-25th).

[JetsPens87]

Ensembles are now showing full on furnace potential.

 

There *appears to be a relaxing towards the last week of June but that's only temporary as a longer term WAR driven pattern is now being hinted at LR on the ensembles.

@nycwinter @MJO812 tagging the heat fans on this 

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, Mexico just had its hottest and driest May on record. So the Euro brings a piece of that record heat to the Northeast next week. The CMC is on board also. The only thing that has been holding back major heat for us since May has been the 50/50 low position near and to the east of New England. But it looks like the pattern will probably begin to shift next week as the Southeast ridge finally flexes enough to push the 50/50 low far enough east. 
 

 

Did you see this? Haha. 
 

 

[Rtd208]

[gravitylover]

57 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

The past three days have been phenomenal; if I could bottle them up and open when needed, I would gladly do so. 

You cannot stop the match towards summer, but personally I can do without the HHH; oh well, I haven’t figured out how to control the weather yet. 

Talk to LB

14 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Ensembles are now showing full on furnace potential.

 

There *appears to be a relaxing towards the last week of June but that's only temporary as a longer term WAR driven pattern is now being hinted at LR on the ensembles.

@nycwinter @MJO812 tagging the heat fans on this 

You forgot the extreme heat king @LibertyBell

 

I had .28 yesterday with a little bit of that overnight so didn't have to water today but the wind did a pretty good job of drying out the surface today. I'm sure the hanging plants will need watering tomorrow with the ground stuff probably good for another day or two. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 99 (2008)
NYC: 96 (2008)
LGA: 100 (2008)
JFK: 94 (1959)


Lows:

EWR: 49 (1972)
NYC: 49 (1972)
LGA: 48 (1972)
JFK: 51 (1988)

Historical:

 

1752 - It is believed that this was the day Benjamin Franklin narrowly missed electrocution while flying a kite during a thunderstorm to determine if lightning is related to electricity. (David Ludlum)

1957 - A dust devil at North Yarmouth, ME, lifted a 600 to 1000 pound chicken shelter into the air and carried it 25 feet. It landed upright with only slight damage. It is unknown whether any eggs were scrambled. (The Weather Channel)

1958 - A woman was sucked through the window of her home in El Dorado, KS, by a powerful tornado, and was carried sixty feet away. Beside her was found a broken phonograph record entitled Stormy Weather . (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced 2 to 4 inch rains in southern Texas. Two and a half inches of rain at Juno TX caused flooding and closed a nearby highway. Flooding on the northwest side of San Antonio claimed one life as a boy was swept into a culvert. Thunderstorms in the north central U.S. produced an inch and a half of small hail at Monida Pass MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Three dozen cities, mostly in the eastern U.S., reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins, WV, with a reading of 33 degrees. Unseasonably hot weather continued in the Northern High Plains Region. The record high of 105 degeees at Williston, ND, was their seventh in eight days. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather through the day and night across much of the southern half of the Great Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned 14 tornadoes, and there were 142 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Hail three inches in diameter caused three millions dollars damage at Carlsbad, NM. Hail four inches in diameter was reported at Estelline TX and Stinnett, TX. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 80 mph at Odessa TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1997: Flash Flooding occurred in many locations in Mississippi. Highway 80 and many other streets were flooded in and around Vicksburg. Water engulfed one person's car, but the person was rescued. This event caused $300,000 in property damages. Over 6 inches of rain fell in Lexington in a little over 3 hours. The torrential rains caused Bear Creek to overflow and flood much of the town of Lexington. 45 businesses were affected by the flooding and 30 of these suffered major losses. As many as 300 homes had water damage. This event caused 10 million dollars in property damages. Portions of Jones County experienced flash flooding as 3 inches of rain fell in just 1.5 hours over saturated ground.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Did you see this? Haha. 
 

 

 

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

Ensembles are now showing full on furnace potential.

 

There *appears to be a relaxing towards the last week of June but that's only temporary as a longer term WAR driven pattern is now being hinted at LR on the ensembles.

@nycwinter @MJO812 tagging the heat fans on this 

May all hoodies and coats be thrown outdoors and spontaneously combust. 

[the_other_guy]

You guys crying for rain make me laugh.

If it didnt rain a drop for the month, we would still be well ahead for the year.

May you never know a real drought like out west.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

ACY: 83
EWR: 78
BLM: 78
New Brnswck: 77
JFK: 77
ISP: 77
PHL: 77
TEB: 76
LGA: 76
NYC: 75
TTN: 75
 

[lee59]

57 degrees here this morning.

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, Allsnow said:

The euro op today brings the heat 

 

Thur and Friday close to 90

The following week 100’s 

The 0z Euro was more suppressed to the south with the major heat. We will need to see this period get within the 120 hr window for details. The GFS hasn’t been as warm. We have seen the models initially go really warm day 6-10 and 11-15 before dialing it back as we got closer. But even a compromise between the models could give the warm spots their first 95° of season. 

[nycwinter]

i snuck in one last hoodie morning. and i was pleasantly surprised at how many people were wearing hoodies at least 20...by my count...

[psv88]

55 this morning. One last cool night tonight and that’s it for a while. We’ve probably seen the last 50s until September 

[Stormlover74]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 0z Euro was more suppressed to the south with the major heat. We will need to see this period get within the 120 hr window for details. The GFS hasn’t been as warm. We have seen the models initially go really warm day 6-10 and 11-15 before dialing it back as we got closer. But even a compromise between the models could give the warm spots their first 95° of season. 

Even this week's heat is looking less impressive. Low 90s at ewr meaning probably only upper 80s for central park on Friday 

[Stormlover74]

Forecast for today 

.TODAY...Partly sunny early, then becoming partly sunny.

[JetsPens87]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

i snuck in one last hoodie morning. and i was pleasantly surprised at how many people were wearing hoodies at least 20...by my count...

Creepy

[Gravity Wave]

If it's going to be hot then let it be dry as well. I'm not trying to spend $350 cooling my apartment this month.

[wishcast_hater]

12 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

You guys crying for rain make me laugh.

If it didnt rain a drop for the month, we would still be well ahead for the year.

May you never know a real drought like out west.

For those of us who take pride in our lawns we wouldnt mind some rain twice a week to keep it looking green and cut down on the water bill. 

[Sn0waddict]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

55 this morning. One last cool night tonight and that’s it for a while. We’ve probably seen the last 50s until September 

Sunday morning looks pretty cool.

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

For those of us who take pride in our lawns we wouldnt mind some rain twice a week to keep it looking green and cut down on the water bill. 

Exactly. Same for those of us with vegetable and flower gardens.  Water tables and reservoir levels are not the issue, drying top soils are. Especially with peak sun angle in progress.  Five to ten days with little or no rain this time of year means almost daily irrigation for those with agriculture interests.  Tough on local farmers and will increase the costs to the consumer if they have to do long term steady irrigation.

[Dark Star]

21 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah barely an inch the next 2 weeks. Of course depending on storms could end up higher or lower than that by a good amount 

Been watering for only 10 minutes in the morning for about 2 weeks. "Conventional Wisdom" would say to water less often but to make sure to water at least 1" every few days.  Based on observations of lawns with sprinkler systems watering everyday for short periods, these seem to do the best.  Grass always seems to like rain water vs. potable water.  I'm assuming the chlorine is not appreciated by the grass.   

[Dark Star]

13 hours ago, FPizz said:

 

Average, that seems pretty safe?