Allsnow Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Need the heat and boomers 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Top 10 today, we need massive troughs just to do average with CC 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (2011) NYC: 95 (1933) LGA: 97 (2011) JFK: 96 (1999) Lows: EWR: 44 (1932) NYC: 47 (1932) LGA: 50 (1977) JFK: 50 (1997) Historical: 1951: A tornado was captured on motion pictures for the first time in the USA. 1953 - The worst tornado of record for the state of Michigan killed 116 persons. Flint MI was hardest hit. The tornado, half a mile in width, destroyed 200 homes on Coldwater Road killing entire families. (The Weather Channel) 1966 - A tornado ripped right through the heart of the capitol city of Topeka KS killing sixteen persons and causing 100 million dollars damage. The tornado, which struck during the evening, cut a swath of near total destruction eight miles long and four blocks wide. It was the most destructive tornado of record up until that time. (David Ludlum) 1974 - Severe thunderstorms spawned at least twenty-three tornadoes in Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening hours. One of the tornadoes struck the town Drumright killing sixteen persons and injuring 150 others. A tornado struck the National Weather Service office in Oklahoma City, and two tornadoes hit the city of Tulsa. Thunderstorms in Tulsa also produced as much as ten inches of rain. Total damage from the storms was around thirty million dollars. It was the worst natural disaster of record for Tulsa. (Storm Data) 1987 - Thunderstorms in the northeastern U.S. produced large hail and damaging winds in Vermont injuring two persons. Thunderstorms in Ohio produced wind gusts to 75 mph near Akron, and deluged Pittsfield with two inches of rain in thirty minutes. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Overnight thunderstorms in Iowa produced 5.20 inches of rain at Coon Rapids. Thunderstorms in the Florida Keys drenched Tavernier with 7.16 inches of rain in 24 hours. Eleven cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Central Gulf Coast Region during the day and evening. Severe thunderstorms spawned 17 tornadoes, including one which injured ten persons and caused a million dollars damage at Orange Beach, AL. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 90 mph killed three persons and injured four others at Mobile AL. Thunderstorms also deluged Walnut Hill and Avalon Beach, FL, with eight inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 2001: Tropical Storm Allison hits Houston, Texas, for the second time in three days. Louisiana and southern Texas were inundated with rain. Baton Rouge received 18 inches over just a couple of days. Some portions of Texas racked up 36 inches by June 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Pretty horrendous short term fail by models here re clouds. Zero sun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 We are still feeling the effects of the major stratospheric disruption back in March. That is pretty much the one thing holding back the arrival of any major 95°+ heat at this point. It has been such a strong pattern recently that the only cool patch in a record sea of warm Atlantic is to our east. New run Old run 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: And ewr is already nearly +7 for the month. It's also looking very dry the next 10 days Yeah obviously this month is gonna end up WAY above average. Looks like finally a couple slightly below average days Monday and Tuesday, but consistent well above average temps after that. Thankfully we got that good soaking the other day, but we're really gonna be in need of rain by late next week. As you said, it's not looking good with the very dry pattern ahead. Lots of watering will be needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: And ewr is already nearly +7 for the month. It's also looking very dry the next 10 days First time that Newark started June in the top 5 warmest with no 90s. Newark June 1-7 warmest averages and maximum temperature 2010….77.9….94 1999…75.9….99 2024…75.8….89 1989….75.7….94 2021….75.4….97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Update on LaNina from DT (WxRisk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: First time that Newark started June in the top 5 warmest with no 90s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending top 5 warmest first weeks of June and maximum temperature 1 2010-06-07 77.9 94 2 1999-06-07 75.9 99 3 2024-06-07 75.8 89 4 1989-06-07 75.7 94 5 2021-06-07 75.4 97 Last below normal daily departure at EWR was May 13th (-5) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: First time that Newark started June in the top 5 warmest with no 90s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending top 5 warmest first weeks of June and maximum temperature 1 2010-06-07 77.9 94 2 1999-06-07 75.9 99 3 2024-06-07 75.8 89 4 1989-06-07 75.7 94 5 2021-06-07 75.4 97 It's been consistently well above normal. You don't even need extreme heat to get a top 5 month anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 1 hour ago, BxEngine said: Pretty horrendous short term fail by models here re clouds. Zero sun. Clouds splitting the area NJ in half 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's been consistently well above normal. You don't even need extreme heat to get a top 5 month anymore Another over the top warm up which allows for enough onshore flow to reduce the 90° potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Under brilliant sunshine, a refreshing breeze, and an active breeze, the New York Botanical Garden is about as picturesque as it gets. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 3 hours ago, bluewave said: We are still feeling the effects of the major stratospheric disruption back in March. That is pretty much the one thing holding back the arrival of any major 95°+ heat at this point. It has been such a strong pattern recently that the only cool patch in a record sea of warm Atlantic is to our east. New run Old run Already psyched for a flip to a SE ridge and Greenland vortex just in time for ‘snow’ season! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Tomorrow will be another refreshing day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few spots could see a shower or thundershower. Through early next week, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend will likely commence after midweek. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -18.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.584 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (3.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will be another refreshing day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few spots could see a shower or thundershower. Through early next week, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend will likely commence after midweek. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -18.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.584 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (3.1° above normal). Don, does NYC take a warm to hot turn around June 20 and beyond? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 21 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Don, does NYC take a warm to hot turn around June 20 and beyond? I suspect that NYC is 2 or 3 weeks away from the onset of a significantly hot period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 5 hours ago, bluewave said: We are still feeling the effects of the major stratospheric disruption back in March. That is pretty much the one thing holding back the arrival of any major 95°+ heat at this point. It has been such a strong pattern recently that the only cool patch in a record sea of warm Atlantic is to our east. New run Old run looking forward to a exciting tropical season.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 CPC Week 3-4 Outlook: 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Highs: ACY: 84 EWR: 83 PHL: 82 BLM: 81 JFK: 81 New Brnswck: 79 TEB: 79 ISP: 79 LGA: 79 TTN: 79 NYC: 76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I suspect that NYC is 2 or 3 weeks away from the onset of a significantly hot period. thank goodness i live near central park to escape the high heat... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjr Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 5 hours ago, nycwinter said: thank goodness i live near central park to escape the high heat... Probably should not get carried away with prospective 90+ readings at NYC as we now seem to be well into the "Central Park Foliage " season during which the NWS has abandoned any pretense of caring about accurate afternoon temperature readings at NYC. Below is for 2024. Average High Temperature Feb Mar Apr May May 20-31 June 1-8 EWR 47.4 56.5 63.6 75.2 81.7 85.4 LGA 45.6 54.3 60.8 72.3 79.1 82.9 NYC 46.2 55.7 63.8 72.5 78.4 80.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 18 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It's been consistently well above normal. You don't even need extreme heat to get a top 5 month anymore This pattern has been especially noticeable in the winter in the last seven years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 These over the top wam ups have become more common in recent years as the shore of Hudson Bay reached 95° before Newark did this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 69 / 60 , a bit more humid than yesterday. Cloudy and showers around in the northern sections and passing through NJ. Should get breaks in the clouds to make way for a very nice part of the day between 11M - 1PM with upper 70s / low 80s. The trough and UL in the GL was bound to send some clouds / showers this way. Overall dry and near normal through Wed with chance for showers / storm on Tue PM (6/11) - Wed (6/12). Heat for the warmer spots by Thu (6/13) before all areas get there Fri (6./14) - maybe the park too. Looks like a quick black of >18C 850 MB temps. May see showers storms Sat (6/15) before hotter by Fathers day Sun (6/17). Beyond there looking overall warm to hot as heights reman elevated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Euro now with less troughing NE in the 7- 10 day 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9 Author Share Posted June 9 Forecast is now 94 for friday..ewr 95 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 looks like midwest centered heat with pieces coming east which would be good for storms 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: looks like midwest centered heat with pieces coming east which would be good for storms Yes, please 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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