Stormlover74 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 CT is finishing one hell of a severe weather month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: CT is finishing one hell of a severe weather month Crazy two week stretch for them. We have mainly missed out down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Areas affected...southern New England, southern New York State, eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 301744Z - 302344Z Summary...Bands of scattered thunderstorm activity were moving quickly to the east, but also merging/training locally to produce spots of 1+ inch/hr rain rates at times. These rates could cause flash flood potential to increase through the early evening. Discussion...Storms have deepened and expanded in coverage within a strongly unstable airmass across the discussion area over the past hour. The storms are aligned along and just ahead of a surface cold front across central PA/southern New York and were embedded in deep westerly flow, promoting 30-40 kt storm motions. Of particular concern, however, is the alignment of convection across Connecticut and southern New York favoring training, which has boosted rain rates into the 1-1.5 inch/hr range, threatening local FFG thresholds. Models/observations are in general agreement that storms will continue to train/expand eastward while propagating southward/eastward toward more populated locales (including New York/northern New Jersey, Providence RI, and Boston). Not only are FFGs locally lower in some of these areas, but urban/hydrophobic surface may promote a local flash flood risk especially where rain rates exceed 1 inch/hr. Flash flooding is possible given the aforementioned scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 85 / 75 some breaks in the clouds, storms firing north NJ - HVlley , CT. More sun by 2;30 - 4:00 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 85 / 75 some breaks in the clouds, storms firing north NJ - HVlley , CT. 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Looks like HRRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 3 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 85 / 75 some breaks in the clouds, storms firing north NJ - HVlley , CT. Yikes. Might not clear out in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yikes. Might not clear out in time Yeah it's a very close call whether our area will clear out. Northern NJ clearing out but central NJ looks to stay pretty cloudy. We're near the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah it's a very close call whether our area will clear out. Northern NJ clearing out but central NJ looks to stay pretty cloudy. We're near the edge. Wasn't that pretty much expected though? I didn't think we were supposed to see much sun today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Wasn't that pretty much expected though? I didn't think we were supposed to see much sun today Yep that's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Yep that's correct. It does seem to be brightening a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's annoying how wildly inconsistent the HRRR is. It's a crap model more times than not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It does seem to be brightening a bit Yeah we won't completely clear out, but at least we'll have breaks. Some cells starting to pop up further to the south in PA. We should have a decent shot at seeing something later today, but obviously it's far from a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah we won't completely clear out, but at least we'll have breaks. Some cells starting to pop up further to the south in PA. We should have a decent shot at seeing something later today, but obviously it's far from a guarantee. Parts of extreme snj got 8-10 inches of rain this morning. Crazy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Parts of cape may county received almost 11 inches of rain since this morning! Rockland and orange county now getting trained on! Hoping we get in on the action soon in Bergen County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 I'm under a warning now. Cell looks nasty, maybe bowed out a bit too. Time to move the truck again. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 NWS Upton still all in for this afternoon severe threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Wow! Areas affected...northern NJ into western Long Island/NYC Metro vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489... Valid 301826Z - 302000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 continues. SUMMARY...An intense bowing segment will move across northern New Jersey into western Long Island and the New York City metro vicinity over the next 1-2 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected with these storms. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has rapidly intensified and developed into a bowing segment near the northern NJ/PA state line this afternoon. This activity will spread east/southeast over the next 1-2 hours into the axis of strong instability oriented over the northern Mid-Atlantic region. These storms have already produced gusts to near 50 kt and areas of wind damage. This activity is likely to continue producing severe/damaging wind gusts as storms spread across northern NJ and the New York City metro vicinity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 Sun is out now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Sun is out now Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Wow! Areas affected...northern NJ into western Long Island/NYC Metro vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489... Valid 301826Z - 302000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489 continues. SUMMARY...An intense bowing segment will move across northern New Jersey into western Long Island and the New York City metro vicinity over the next 1-2 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected with these storms. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has rapidly intensified and developed into a bowing segment near the northern NJ/PA state line this afternoon. This activity will spread east/southeast over the next 1-2 hours into the axis of strong instability oriented over the northern Mid-Atlantic region. These storms have already produced gusts to near 50 kt and areas of wind damage. This activity is likely to continue producing severe/damaging wind gusts as storms spread across northern NJ and the New York City metro vicinity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Our area might get missed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Getting in on it now. Absolute deluge, with thunder and lightening, but no wind yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 30 Author Share Posted June 30 Just now, Allsnow said: Our area might get missed That line isn't making it here unless it builds further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Just now, Stormlover74 said: That line isn't making it here unless it builds further south Yup. See no evidence of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Current temp 86/DP 78/RH 78% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Warning just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 1 minute ago, FPizz said: Warning just issued Don’t see the south trajectory of that storm currently 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Quarter inch of rain in 4 minutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Rain train for CT shore wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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