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June 2024


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77 /76 , Cloudy and humid. 0.67 in the bucket.   Mainly cloudy keeping temps capped, with any decent breaks in the clouds and it will touch the low 90s.  Storms fire later this evening as the front clears.  Nice/ sunny and dry Mon - tue, watch for front stubborn and hanging nearby and energy producing showers Mon night, otherwise a gorgeous 2 days.  Ridge builds east with warmer/hotter weather by the 3rd.   Humid and hot with chances for storms, although the fourth looks mainly dry.   Overall ridge west and Western Atlantic Ride keeping the EC heights warm / elevated.  Rain chances up from May-Jun.

 

 

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Mesoscale Discussion 1487
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 301355Z - 301600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase in coverage/intensity through midday. Swaths of damaging wind gusts are expected through afternoon. One or more severe thunderstorm watches will likely be needed in the next couple of hours for portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New England.

DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass is already in place across the region this morning, with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s F noted in observations. Temperatures are already in the upper 70s to low 80s, and even modest heating through broken clouds will aid in further destabilization toward midday. 12z RAOBs from ALB and OKX also indicate a strongly sheared environment, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt present. Early convection is already noted near Binghamton NY along an outflow boundary. Additional convection is developing further west across central PA ahead of an east/southeast-advancing cold front.

As convection gradually increases over the next few hours, bowing segments/clusters are expected given mostly unidirectional deep-layer flow. Large instability, high PW values, and steepening low-level lapse rates amid favorable shear will support swaths of damaging winds across the region through the afternoon into early evening. One or more watches will likely be needed for the region within the next couple of hours.

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I picked up 0.24" last night. Was happy to get that to water the garden just in case this afternoon doesn't work out, but the threat looks very good. The one thing we have going against us is it's cloudy, but obviously we still have a ton of fuel for the storms. Hopefully we'll see something nice. 

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