June 2024

[Allsnow]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nice bow echo along 78 with 70 mph winds

Would think we get some rain from that line 

[Tatamy]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nice bow echo along 78 with 70 mph winds

This feature is coming straight at me.  We’ll see if it outdoes the one from a couple of days ago.

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Would think we get some rain from that line 

Maybe. Hrrr weakens it

[WestBabylonWeather]

Appears a line of storms coming in sooner than expected provided it holds together. I’m hoping it falls apart I want to chill on the deck 

[lee59]

75 degrees here and winds gusting to 30mph.

[Tatamy]

This is what the leading edge of that bow echo looks like as of a few minutes ago at exit 40 on I78.  The traffic cam was shaking like crazy.  It’s like a wall of rain.

[Allsnow]

37 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe. Hrrr weakens it

Areas affected...Southeast PA...NJ...far northern MD/DE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...

Valid 292238Z - 300015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe wind gusts from 50-65 mph will remain possible, mainly focused across southeast Pennsylvania and adjacent states. How far downstream this extends east of the Delaware Valley is uncertain, with forecast expectation of weakening farther east into New Jersey.

DISCUSSION...A surging accelerated portion of a short-line segment has bowed across a part of east-central to southeast Pennsylvania. Its current eastward track will result in movement into a more weakly unstable air mass. But given its organization, a damaging wind threat will probably spread east of WW 484 into NJ before diminishing. Meanwhile, supercell structure exists within the tail-end robust updraft in south-central PA. With a plume of low 90s surface temperatures emanating north over central MD, it is plausible the lagging portion of the convective line may undergo a similar acceleration and bowing surge. This could potentially impact parts of far northern MD/DE, adjacent to WWs 482/484.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Damnit. This line is coming isn’t it 

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Damnit. This line is coming isn’t it 

Just some rain

[Dark Star]

9 hours ago, Allsnow said:

This will be the way it plays out 

I wonder who is going to be right, StormWeather74 & All Snow or the Wx Channel Future Radar?

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Damnit. This line is coming isn’t it 

A few drops if we’re lucky. 

[Picard]

Looks like things weakened.  Just some light to moderate rain.  Looks like that's over shortly.

[BxEngine]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nice bow echo along 78 with 70 mph winds

Effing storm split around me in Hershey.

[Allsnow]

Light rain currently 

[SRRTA22]

Tomorrow looks good

[Allsnow]

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Light rain currently 

.20 

[winterwx21]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Light rain currently 

Mostly light but was on the moderate side for a little while. I got 0.11" from that line of showers.

Radar in PA looks decent to me. Hopefully it'll hold together and be a decent batch of rain for our area. Maybe we can pick up around a quarter inch from that batch. 

[dmillz25]

Coming down pretty good here

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

.20 

Let's see if that activity in PA holds together for us

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

PHL: 88
TTN: 86
EWR: 85
New Brnswck: 85
ACY: 81
TEB: 81
LGA: 81
BLM: 81
JFK: 80
NYC: 79
ISP: 77

[winterwx21]

12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Let's see if that activity in PA holds together for us

Looks as if some areas in central and northern Jersey could get a quarter to half inch out of it. 

[SRRTA22]

30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Let's see if that activity in PA holds together for us

I think it will. I don't think it'll be severe but definitely has to be monitored with boundaries all over the place. 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (2021)
NYC: 101 (1934)
LGA: 98 (2021)
JFK: 99 (1959)


Lows:

EWR: 58 (1968)
NYC:  52 (1919)
LGA: 59 (1995)
JFK: 55 (1995)


Historical: 

 

1826: Thomas Jefferson made his last entry in his weather observation log on this date, just six days before he died. The weather held a fascination for Jefferson as he made regular weather observations. He bought his first thermometer while working on the Declaration of Independence and his first barometer shortly after that.

1931 - The temperature at Monticello FL hit 109 degrees to establish an all-time record for the state. (The Weather Channel)

1954 - Hurricane Alice dumped as much as 27 inches of rain on the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. The Rio Grande River at Laredo reached a level 12.6 feet above its previous highest mark, and the roadway of the U.S. 90 bridge was thirty feet below the high water. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region, with reports of large hail and damaging winds most numerous in Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Michigan. A tornado near Clare MI was accompanied by softball size hail. In Colorado, an untimely winter-like storm blanketed Mount Evans with six inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Alpena, MI, reported a record low of 39 degrees while Jackson, MS, equalled their record for the month of June with an afternoon high of 105 degrees. Thunderstorms in the central U.S. soaked Springfield MO with 3.62 inches of rain, a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Southern and Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms in Colorado produced softball size hail at Kit Carson, while pea to marble size hail caused ten million dollars damage to crops in Philips County, CO. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: "The Corn Belt Derecho of 1998" in the following states NE, IA, IL, IN, KY. A derecho which originated in far southeast South Dakota moved across Illinois during the afternoon and evening and continued as far east as Ohio the next morning. Every county in central Illinois sustained some damage, as these severe thunderstorms passed. Winds gusted in the 60 to 80 mph range, with some localized microbursts producing winds more than 100 mph. Significant damage occurred in the microburst areas, including the towns of Morton, McLean, LeRoy, and Tolono. In Tolono, 22 cars of a southbound 101-car Illinois Central freight train were blown off the tracks. It was unknown how many vehicles were picked up by the wind, but 16 cars were turned over, and another six derailed but remained upright. The train was en route to Centralia from Chicago with a load of mixed freight, including plastic pellets and meal. The freight cars empty weighed about 60,000 pounds, while a full one weighs about 260,000 pounds. Overall, 12 people were injured, and damage was estimated at around $16 million.

 

 

 

[winterwx21]

It weakened, but at least light to moderate rain is falling again. Pretty similar to the first round, so it'll probably be another tenth to quarter of an inch. Enough to water the garden between these 2 rounds tonight, but hopefully we'll get a strong storm during the afternoon/evening that gives us much more significant rain. 

[Snowlover11]

absolutely disgusting outside

[the_other_guy]

what a warm front! Im up early for work and its like a freakin steam bath outside!

 

75F

[Allsnow]

.41 overnight 

[winterwarlock]

About a 1/4 inch yesterday and overnight..meh

 

What time today for the rains. Im headed down the shore for a few hours and want to leave before it hits

[weathermedic]

KOKX AFD from this morning:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For this morning, weak shortwave energy may continue to produce
some showers mainly across Long Island and southeast Connecticut.
The support for the showers should push south and east shortly
after 12z as middle level energy passes. There may then be a
relative min in showers for the rest of the morning. Some clouds
will likely linger and there may be some patchy fog along the
coast.

Attention then turns to the potential for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the
region. A pre-frontal trough will move in ahead of the front
early this afternoon and will likely be the convergence
mechanism to initiate convection around 1-3pm well north and
west of the NYC metro. The convection should continue to develop
and organize into a line of storms that will move south east
across the area through the rest of the afternoon and early
evening. The actual cold front will follow quickly behind the
pre-frontal trough and could initiate a few more showers and
storms early in the evening before any lingering convection
pushes offshore.

The main threat from the thunderstorms will be from damaging
wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. There is also a risk of hail
and an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. SPC has
continued to highlight a slight risk across the entire area. The
timing of the highest risk for severe thunderstorms appears to
be between about 3pm and 9pm based on the SPC experimental
timing graphics. The main uncertainty with the timing is whether
or not the pre-frontal trough convection will be predominate
and have the greatest chance at being severe or will it be with
the actual cold front. In either case, the earlier timing in the
aforementioned range favors the interior with the later
afternoon and early evening for locations closer to the coast
including the NYC metro and Long Island.

The ingredients for potential severe thunderstorms include an
unstable environment with MLCAPE values 1500-2500 J/kg and
SBCAPE values 2000-3500 J/kg. Some CAMS even indicate SBCAPEs
pushing 4000 J/kg, especially away from any maritime influence.
Bulk shear values increase through the day with an approaching
middle and upper level shortwave. There looks to be about an
average of 35-45 kt of 0-6 km shear, especially in the afternoon
and evening. Winds are mostly unidirectional, but enhanced
surface convergence from storm outflow could support a few
rotating updrafts and an isolated or brief tornado. The region
will also lie in the right entrance of a jet streak over
northern New England and southeast Canada, which should help
support the convection into the early evening.

Cloud cover to start the day should diminish in coverage late
morning and early afternoon, but there may some lingering low
clouds close to the coast. Even just a few breaks in the clouds
will bring quick surface heating and quick destabilization with
surface dew points in the lower 70s.

PWATs look to range from around 1.75 to around 2 inches with
subtropical moisture pooling along the approaching boundary.
While locally heavy downpours are likely, the flash flood risk
is low and isolated due to the relatively fast steering flow
and progressive nature of the convection. Minor urban and poor
drainage flooding is most likely.

Another concern with the convection will be from frequent
cloud-to-ground lightning. Forecast soundings show a decent
amount of CAPE in the -10C to -30C region of the profile which
typically is a sign that once the convection organizes there
will likely be frequent lightning. The CAPE in this zone also
supports the risk of hail.

Highs today will be in the middle to upper 80s for most with
potential of hitting 90 in urban NE NJ. Heat indices should
reach around 90 for much of the area with close to 95 in the
NYC and urban NE NJ corridor. The cold front will push south and
east of the area this evening and should be offshore after
midnight. Some showers/storms may linger near the coast after
9pm, but most of the activity should be ending thereafter. Much
drier and cooler air will begin working in behind the front with
dew points falling into the 50s and low 60s by early Monday
morning.

&&

[bluewave]

Most unstable sounding of 2024 so far with over 4000 CAPE forecast around lunchtime. Also the highest dew points around 78°. So storms should quickly become severe with torrential downpours which such high moisture content.