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June 2024


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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice and cool outside

The extremely low humidity is what's the big deal. The dewpoint is 41 here right now! About as low as it gets for this time of year. Sunshine with a high near 80 this afternoon. A top 10 day of the year. I hope everyone can get outside and enjoy it. 

Early next week looks great too, but I wish that timing could have happened for the holiday. Instead by the 4th it will be hot and humid with a t-storm chance. Hopefully it will just be isolated storms so that cookouts and fireworks will be ok for most people, but obviously we have a long way to go on that. 

We need more rain so I'm hoping we get hit Saturday night and Sunday. Looks like pretty good heavy rain potential. 

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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers and thunderstorms that could linger into Sunday. It could burn briefly noticeably warmer on Sunday prior to the arrival of another cooler air mass.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +30.65 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.442 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (3.4° above normal). That would tie June 2024 with June 1966 as the second warmest June on record.

 

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 99 (2021)
NYC: 96 (1991)
LGA: 96 (2021)
JFK: 98 (2010)

Lows:

EWR: 53 (1970)
NYC: 54 (1995)
LGA:  55 (1995)
JFK: 53 (1995)

Historical:

 

1788 - The Battle of Monmouth in central New Jersey was fought in sweltering heat. The temperature was 96 degrees in the shade, and there were more casualties from the heat than from bullets. (David Ludlum)

1892 - The temperature at Orogrande UT soared to 116 degrees to establish a record for the state. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)

1923 - A massive tornado hit Sandusky, OH, then swept across Lake Erie to strike the town of Lorain. The tornado killed 86 persons and caused twelve million dollars damage. The tornado outbreak that day was the worst of record for the state of Ohio up til that time. (David Ludlum)

1975 - Lee Trevino and two other golfers are struck by lightning at the Western Open golf tournament in Oak Brook, IL. (The Weather Channel)

1980 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 117 degrees, their hottest reading of record. Daily highs were 110 degrees or above between the 24th of June and the 3rd of July. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the north central U.S. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced wind gusts to 70 mph and baseball size hail at Arapahoe, and wind gusts to 80 mph along with baseball size hail at Wolback and Belgrade. Six cities in the Ohio Valley reported record low temperatures for the date, including Cincinnati, OH, with a reading of 50 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Showers and thunderstorms brought much needed rains to parts of the central U.S. Madison, WI, received 1.67 inches of rain, a record for the date, and their first measurable rain since the Mother's Day tornado outbreak on the 8th of May. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Evening thunderstorms deluged Winnfield LA with eleven inches of rain in four hours and fifteen minutes, and Baton Rouge LA reported 11 inches of rain in two days. Totals in west central Louisiana ranged up to 17 inches. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Northern High Plains. Two inch hail broke windows in nearly every building at Comstock, NE. Thunderstorms in North Dakta produced two inch hail at Killdeer, and golf ball size hail at Zap. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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After the really comfortable dew points on Friday ,we are headed for our first mid 70s dew points of the season on Sunday. This will push the HX into the upper 90s in NJ. Some spots may approach a 100 HX.
 

IMG_0254.thumb.png.b07597e505eaafd752604aee3569d561.png
 

IMG_0255.gif.c6b7d6d5bd934a8bd07095912453ef68.gif

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48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

After the really comfortable dew points on Friday ,we are headed for our first mid 70s dew points of the season on Sunday. This will push the HX into the upper 90s in NJ. Some spots may approach a 100 HX.
 

IMG_0254.thumb.png.b07597e505eaafd752604aee3569d561.png
 

IMG_0255.gif.c6b7d6d5bd934a8bd07095912453ef68.gif

Watch out for the 78 on the island, lol

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73 / 65 and mainly cloudy.  Clouds as far back as Ohio will limit any heating and keep it a more humid and becoming a steamy, low 80s.   Scattered storms into the area with much of the rain north.  Tomorrow with near / >20C 850 MB temps into the region, should we get some breaks in the clouds and with enough sun low - mid 90s could easily go to mid/upper 90s.  Storms in the morning and again at night as front clear through.  Currently, Mon (7/1) and Tue (7/2) look very nice lower humidity and clear, but the front may be a bit stubborn to clear the coast fully till later Mon and some energy my trigger some showers/clouds monday / Tues looks like the better day.

 

Ridge pushing heights up by the 3rd and heat returns.   A more humid Floridia style pattern for the fourth and into the weekend means hot and humid with storms.   The Wstern Atlantic Ridge west keeping heights elevated and warmer along the coast - southerly /SW flow also means storms / rain chances.  Overall warm/humid to hot at times with rain/storms chances through next weekend.   Watch Beryl and the W.A.R.

 

6/29 - 30 : Humid / storms - hotter Sun (clouds / rain limit heat, if more clear mid- upper 90s)
7/1 - 7/2 : Drier / cooler near normal - watch front if nearby could keep it clodier on Monday
7/3 - 7/7 : Hot/humid - storms chances 5th , 7th especially
Beyond - overall warm / humid 

 

GOES16-NE-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

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