Allsnow Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Euro keeps the weekend rain event north and west. Always a fear for those wishing for rain near the metro in that type of set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 it looks like the initial storms lay down a boundary which serves as a focus for the next round 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said: Wow 9 days already...7 of those in a row. Impressive for June. I'm assuming that Monday 90 was the first 90 of the season? Yes that was the first 90. Now up to 96 Very dry here...just .57 in 3 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Latest HRRR has everything missing north until midnight Yep but that 18z run of HRRR does hit our area with an inch of rain. 18z 3km NAM does as well. Like I said I don't like the late timing of this event as it will limit severe potential, but hopefully we'll get heavy rain out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 3k nam hits us around 8pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Mesoscale Discussion 1429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Areas affected...much of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southeast New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 262002Z - 262200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...At least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail may occur this afternoon, with a greater potential for more widespread thunderstorms this evening. DISCUSSION...The air mass continues to destabilize south of an east-west oriented boundary from the PA/NY border eastward into southern New England. Visible satellite shows increase CU fields, with a few thunderstorms now extending from south-central PA into northern VA. As the main upper wave continues east, storms over northern PA along the front may organize further with damaging winds over much of northern PA possible. Isolated activity over southern PA has outflow associated with it currently, and this may support further development across the remainder of southeast PA, and eventually into NJ and southern NY. As such, the area is being monitored for further intensification or increase in coverage of the existing activity, and another watch may be considered over the next few hours south and/or east of WW 464. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yep but that 18z run of HRRR does hit our area with an inch of rain. 18z 3km NAM does as well. Like I said I don't like the late timing of this event as it will limit severe potential, but hopefully we'll get heavy rain out of it. We need the rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 56 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro keeps the weekend rain event north and west. Always a fear for those wishing for rain near the metro in that type of set up Don’t worry, very used to NW of I-95 getting soaked, S Jersey getting slammed and a few drops make it east of the Hudson this time of year. We keep watering. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 96 with heat index of 101 thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 26 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yep but that 18z run of HRRR does hit our area with an inch of rain. 18z 3km NAM does as well. Like I said I don't like the late timing of this event as it will limit severe potential, but hopefully we'll get heavy rain out of it. no one needs any severe but getting some heavy showers of about an inch would be welcome 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Today was another hot day in the northern Mid-Atlantic region except in coastal sections where a sea breeze brought some relief. Highs reached 93° in New York City and 98° in Newark. Farther south, Atlanta, Richmond and Raleigh reached 100° while Atlanta experienced its June record 5th consecutive 97° or above high temperature. A cold front will cross the region tonight. The potential exists for strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds. Following the frontal passage, somewhat cooler air will arrive and remain in place through the weekend. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.3°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +15.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.200 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.6° (3.6° above normal). That would make June 2024 the second warmest June on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: Sheesh! 33 days a year average last 10 years? Crazy. The 10 year average high at Newark in July has been 88.2°.So all it takes these days to reach 90° is a +1.8 max departure. Monthly Mean Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 88.2 88.2 2023 89.1 89.1 2022 92.1 92.1 2021 87.5 87.5 2020 89.3 89.3 2019 89.5 89.5 2018 87.0 87.0 2017 85.5 85.5 2016 88.9 88.9 2015 87.5 87.5 2014 86.0 86.0 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0 2 5 13 9 3 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 6 0 29 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2019 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 27 2018 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 36 2017 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 22 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 2015 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 35 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 Hrrr at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: 3k nam hits us around 8pm I am watching the line segment near Harrisburg. Looks healthy currently and is moving EB at 55 mph according to the SWS put out by State College for that area. Timing on it would have it approaching the Delaware River bordering western NJ around 7PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 97 for high so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 The line out by Harrisburg looks good for north of 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Topped out at 94 here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 26 Author Share Posted June 26 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The line out by Harrisburg looks good for north of 78 Yeah.. might clip us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 3 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: Sheesh! 33 days a year average last 10 years? Crazy. It's newark. Chill out. They reach 90 when bluewave farts at his house. They are equally as bad in the opposite way of central park. Take the 2 sites, adds the highs together, and divide by 2, that's probably more reasonable 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Hrrr kinda misses me in HPN, but the line out west doesn’t look like it will do that. I could use the rain and wouldn't mind some boomers. Still a couple hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 PDS severe thunderstorm warning in PA for observed 70mph winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Some future casts show a bow echo thru the area, especially around lower Westchester, we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 33 minutes ago, FPizz said: It's newark. Chill out. They reach 90 when bluewave farts at his house. They are equally as bad in the opposite way of central park. Take the 2 sites, adds the highs together, and divide by 2, that's probably more reasonable This is very true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Was worried about the NE movement but it seems to have more of an eastern component now as the bow matures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Reasonable looking roll cloud as it comes on in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 If the timing was earlier in the day this would have been a great event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: The line out by Harrisburg looks good for north of 78 Yup. Line looks strong for that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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