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June 2024


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The high of 97° at Newark beat the guidance by a few degrees. More westerly flow than forecast verified. So we are back to the old pattern from the past. With increasing heat through Sunday Newark and other warm spots in NJ should get closer 100° with record highs possible especially on Sunday. The record was 98° today and came up one degree short. The expansion of D0 drought conditions into NJ helped out today. Also look at the growth of drought conditions to our SW which will be the source region for the heat. The core of the heat next few days over +20C at 850 mb will go directly through the area instead of over the top like last few days. 

 

 

IMG_0196.thumb.png.93c682dc609903066c4177b12d324087.png
https://threadex.rcc-acis.org

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2024-06-19DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record

6/20 98 in 2012 97 in 2024 97in 1953
6/21 100 in 1953 99 in 2012 99 in 1949
6/22 101 in 1988 97 in 1943 96 in 2012
6/23 97 in 1965 94 in 1994 93 in 2015+
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A long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. That temperature regime will likely persist through much of the remainder of June. A brief push of cooler air is possible toward the end of the month.

New York City reached 90° for the first time this season. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC are currently experiencing heatwaves.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -13.01 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.795 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.7° (3.7° above normal). That would make June 2024 the second warmest June on record.

 

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I don't bother watering the lawn. All the water goes for the vegetable garden which obviously is much more important. Sucks that we're in such a dry pattern. 

Yup. Lawns will look like mid August by next week. I don’t see significant rain anytime soon 

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43 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Lawns will look like mid August by next week. I don’t see significant rain anytime soon 

I’m pretty confident that we’ll more than make up for this in a couple months with excessive rainfall and flooding. Would definitely be on par with our recent weather trend of small dry periods followed by deluges.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

A long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. That temperature regime will likely persist through much of the remainder of June. A brief push of cooler air is possible toward the end of the month.

New York City reached 90° for the first time this season. Baltimore, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC are currently experiencing heatwaves.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, it is very likely that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was -13.01 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.795 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.7° (3.7° above normal). That would make June 2024 the second warmest June on record.

 

Don, i always follow your daily summations. Just going off memory, we just had a period of smaller positive SOI results but otherwise it seems for weeks the SOI has been a bit more negative than positive and once again past few days we are negative again. Does this indicate a problem with the current La Nina taking off as much as it was expected or more an immaterial statistical anomaly in this short period ? I would normally think we want that index positive in anticipation of an incoming moderate or greater La Niña. 

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7 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

I’m pretty confident that we’ll more than make up for this in a couple months with excessive rainfall and flooding. Would definitely be on par with our recent weather trend of small dry periods followed by deluges.

Yep last year we flipped around the 4th of July 

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1 hour ago, MANDA said:

First day of Summer in Barrow, AK.

Temperature 34 degrees.  Sun above the horizon until 8/3.

Looks like a nice place to visit for a day or two but you gotta be a hardy soul to live there permanently.  Looks primitive.

Screenshot 2024-06-20 at 4.44.37 PM.jpg

They actually have a Subway there

E1A128B9-7CC0-4AB9-9D9C-5CCA6DE20648.jpeg

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53 minutes ago, HailMan06 said:

I’m pretty confident that we’ll more than make up for this in a couple months with excessive rainfall and flooding. Would definitely be on par with our recent weather trend of small dry periods followed by deluges.

I hope you’re correct but so far this severe season has been a disappointment. Which is odd for a Nina and contradictory to some of the discussion here the past few months 

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Records:

Highs:


EWR: 98 (2012)
NYC: 98 (1923)
LGA: 98 (2012)
JFK: 94 (2012)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1956)
NYC: 49 (1914)
LGA: 55 (1959)
JFK: 55 (2005)

 

Historical:

1682 - A major tornado ripped through southwestern Connecticut, passing through Stratford, Milford, and New Haven, and then into Long Island Sound. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1921 - Circle, MT, received 11.5 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state. The town of Circle received a total of 16.79 inches of rain that month to establish a rainfall record for any town in Montana for any month of the year. (The Weather Channel)

1928 - A farmer near Greensburg, KS, looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound . (The Weather Channel)

1964 - A squall line producing large hail swept through central Illinois. A second squall line moved through during the early morning hours of the 21st, and a third one moved through shortly after dawn. The series of hailstorms caused nine million dollars damage. Hailstones as large as grapefruit caused heavy damage to trees, utility lines, crops and buildings. The thunderstorms also produced as much as five inches of rain in an eight hour period. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Thunderstorms prevailed east of the Rockies, producing severe weather in the Central High Plains Region. Thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes in Colorado, and produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Goodland, KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-eight cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, and 104 degrees at Chicago, IL, equalled records for the month of June. Thunderstorms in North Dakota produced baseball size hail near Kief, and wind gusts to 100 mph near McGregor. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - An early morning thunderstorm produced wind gusts to 61 mph at Pierre, SD, and the hot thunderstorm winds raised the temperature from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 degrees by 1 AM, and 104 degrees by 2 AM. Butte, MT, and Yellowstone Park, WY, reported snow that afternoon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989:A meteorological "hot flash" hit Pierre. Descending air from collapsing thunderstorms caused the temperature in Pierre to warm from 86 degrees at midnight to 96 at one a.m. and to 104 at 2 a.m. Pierre's record high for the date of 105 degrees in 1974.

2001: Large hail driven by strong thunderstorm winds raked Denver International and front-range airports. Wind gusting to 54 mph along with hail as large as 2 inches in diameter punched at least 14 thousand holes and cracks in the flat roofs of several buildings at Denver International Airport. Also, 93 planes and hundreds of cars were damaged. About 100 flights had to be canceled stranding 1500 travelers. The Airport was completely shut down for about 20 minutes. The storm also damaged ground avoidance radar used to track planes on the ground to prevent collisions. Damage was estimated at 10 million dollars not counting the cost to the 93 airliners. The storm moved south and struck Watkins Colorado with hail as large as 2 1/2 inches in diameter and winds gusting to 60 mph. 

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10 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

my highs for the 4 day heatwave...expecting higher the next 3 days

 

Monday: 90

Tuesday: 95

Wednesday: 93

Thursday: 95

 

Clouds or shower,  pop up storms only issue for higher on Sat / Sun,most model keep the bulk of the activity north but we'll see.  Surge of >20C 850 MB temperatures late Saturday and Sunday.

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