June 2024

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Euro took highs down last night 

It’s heat bias is awful

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Euro took highs down last night 

The GFS has been doing much better than the Euro recently. The Euro had the core of the heat focused over our area last week. Now the new Euro takes the core of the heat to our north into upstate New York and New England. Plus the 850 mb to surface temperatures have been running too high. This matches our pattern of recent years with a further north subtropical ridge into New England allowing more SSE flow at times. We will probably see our warmest temperatures later in the week and possibly into the weekend as the flow turns more SW. 

New run 0z JUN 20

Old run ridge axis and core of heat too far south

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS has been doing much better than the Euro recently. The Euro had the core of the heat focused over our area last week. Now the new Euro takes the core of the heat to our north into upstate New York and New England. Plus the 850 mb to surface temperatures have been running too high. This matches our pattern of recent years with a further north subtropical ridge into New England allowing more SSE flow at times. We will probably see our warmest temperatures later in the week and possibly into the weekend as the flow turns more SW. 

New run 0z JUN 20

Old run ridge axis too far south

 

 

 

 

You have been all over this the past few days. Good job 

[qg_omega]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The GFS has been doing much better than the Euro recently. The Euro had the core of the heat focused over our area last week. Now the new Euro takes the core of the heat to our north into upstate New York and New England. Plus the 850 mb to surface temperatures have been running too high. This matches our pattern of recent years with a further north subtropical ridge into New England allowing more SSE flow at times. We will probably see our warmest temperatures later in the week and possibly into the weekend as the flow turns more SW. 

New run 0z JUN 20

Old run ridge axis and core of heat too far south

 

 

 

 

This always looked north

[Rtd208]

Current temp 88/DP 67/RH 51%

[SACRUS]

 

86 / 64

[the_other_guy]

One thing you have to appreciate is the stability of our new weather regime since the super El Niño.

 

The highest departures to our north is a very common theme. It’s been incredibly stable summer and winter in these types of set ups.

[jm1220]

Noticeably more humid but S winds are kicking up as expected so we can’t go much over 80. Islip and JFK gusting over 20. The beaches are probably gusting to 30+ or will soon. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

We'll see if the over the top heat scenario doesn't repeat throughout this summer. I do not often remember this from way back in the 50s and 60s and only on rare occasions in the 1970s. Could it be partly a function of climate change that has almost permanently relocated summertime ridges further north that they would have been years ago? If this continues it will have the effect or reducing the overall number or 90+ days at Central Park. Maybe the park ends up with 5-11 90+ days rather than the 25+ which might have been while Burlington Vt notches the 25+.

WX/PT

[psv88]

Stuck at 82 here, stiff breeze 

[HailMan06]

3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

We'll see if the over the top heat scenario doesn't repeat throughout this summer. I do not often remember this from way back in the 50s and 60s and only on rare occasions in the 1970s. Could it be partly a function of climate change that has almost permanently relocated summertime ridges further north that they would have been years ago? If this continues it will have the effect or reducing the overall number or 90+ days at Central Park. Maybe the park ends up with 5-11 90+ days rather than the 25+ which might have been while Burlington Vt notches the 25+.

WX/PT

An extension of the trades reaches our region perhaps?

[winterwx21]

It's up to 90 here right now as we get the heat wave started! Even though the temps don't look terribly impressive with this being an over the top warmup, I still think we won't have any trouble hitting at least 90 here every day this week. So this should still be a very long heat wave here just west of the city.

And as bluewave said, we'll probably see some higher temps at the end of the week. The other day I said I didn't see any extreme 100 degree heat coming, but probably some mid 90s which obviously is still pretty impressive. I still think we'll see 95-96, maybe as high as 97 at the end of the week in warm spots. 

Maybe some storms as early as Friday? It won't be widespread, but some models are showing some activity on Friday now. We'll really be desperate for rain by the end of the week, so hopefully that'll happen.

I'll be going outside to water the garden shortly. It's really dry out there and this is gonna be a rough week for gardens. Lots of watering will be needed. Let's hope we see at least some isolated storms for Friday and the weekend to help out some spots. 

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

We'll see if the over the top heat scenario doesn't repeat throughout this summer. I do not often remember this from way back in the 50s and 60s and only on rare occasions in the 1970s. Could it be partly a function of climate change that has almost permanently relocated summertime ridges further north that they would have been years ago? If this continues it will have the effect or reducing the overall number or 90+ days at Central Park. Maybe the park ends up with 5-11 90+ days rather than the 25+ which might have been while Burlington Vt notches the 25+.

WX/PT

This ridge pattern in the summer started maybe 5 years ago so it’s hard to say if it’s permanent but I’d argue we’ll pay for it later in the summer since this will also drive SSTs up and humidity on the southerly flow and opens up a lane for more tropical systems to the US. There no relief when we get hot in August and DP hits 75+ which is also a lot more common now. 

[FPizz]

86 currently.  I wonder if my pool by Saturday will be near 90. It is 85 now, so I'm guessing yes.  

[SACRUS]

28 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

We'll see if the over the top heat scenario doesn't repeat throughout this summer. I do not often remember this from way back in the 50s and 60s and only on rare occasions in the 1970s. Could it be partly a function of climate change that has almost permanently relocated summertime ridges further north that they would have been years ago? If this continues it will have the effect or reducing the overall number or 90+ days at Central Park. Maybe the park ends up with 5-11 90+ days rather than the 25+ which might have been while Burlington Vt notches the 25+.

WX/PT

Not sure if the park cold get to 25+ days even  in a pattern like 2010, 1993 these days with the overgrowth which was the last time the park had more than 25 90 days. 

[Rtd208]

Current temp up to 90 here now.

[Allsnow]

90 

[Allsnow]

KPHL saying the excessive heat watch won’t be needed on Wednesday 

 

get.

No changes made to the excessive heat watch at this point as we
still have time to evaluate model trends. Agree with the
previous shift that impacts on Wednesday seem to be trending to
falling short of warning levels (especially given that overnight
lows will still in the 60s, should have a little relief during 
the overnight hours), so may have an advisory that day, but will
leave it for later shifts to further evaluate.

[qg_omega]

44 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

We'll see if the over the top heat scenario doesn't repeat throughout this summer. I do not often remember this from way back in the 50s and 60s and only on rare occasions in the 1970s. Could it be partly a function of climate change that has almost permanently relocated summertime ridges further north that they would have been years ago? If this continues it will have the effect or reducing the overall number or 90+ days at Central Park. Maybe the park ends up with 5-11 90+ days rather than the 25+ which might have been while Burlington Vt notches the 25+.

WX/PT

Agreed, south shore of Hudson Bay was 95 other day

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Really started to rip at jones beach. Constant gusts to around 30 and the wave hight has doubled since this morning. Almost a bit chilly sitting in the life guard stand with such a strong wind. Still not on par with some Ambrose jet events I have witnessed over the years, with gusts to 50+ and the whole beach being a sand storm. 

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

It's up to 90 here right now as we get the heat wave started! Even though the temps don't look terribly impressive with this being an over the top warmup, I still think we won't have any trouble hitting at least 90 here every day this week. So this should still be a very long heat wave here just west of the city.

And as bluewave said, we'll probably see some higher temps at the end of the week. The other day I said I didn't see any extreme 100 degree heat coming, but probably some mid 90s which obviously is still pretty impressive. I still think we'll see 95-96, maybe as high as 97 at the end of the week in warm spots. 

Maybe some storms as early as Friday? It won't be widespread, but some models are showing some activity on Friday now. We'll really be desperate for rain by the end of the week, so hopefully that'll happen.

I'll be going outside to water the garden shortly. It's really dry out there and this is gonna be a rough week for gardens. Lots of watering will be needed. Let's hope we see at least some isolated storms for Friday and the weekend to help out some spots. 

Might see tropical development in the gulf. Who knows if any of that makes it up here

[Rtd208]

Current temp 91/DP68/RH 48%

[Brian5671]

where's all the heat?

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

where's all the heat?

Euro giveth & euro taketh. 

[bluewave]

I remember something like this several years ago after they did an upgrade to the GFS. The model developed a warm bias right after one of the upgrades and they eventually fixed it. Now it’s looks like they did an upgrade to the OP Euro that has given it a warm bias beyond 3 -4 days out and especially after 120 hrs. So I have been mostly relying on the GFS, GEFS, and EPS means for the high temperatures beyond 72-96 and especially 120 hrs. We didn’t have much heat last summer so not sure exactly when this error began. The Euro did pretty well with the record heat during the summer of 2022. 
 

New run

 

Old run

 

[FPizz]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I remember something like this several years ago after they did an upgrade to the GFS. The model developed a warm bias right after one of the upgrades and they eventually fixed it. Now it’s looks like they did an upgrade to the OP Euro that has given it a warm bias beyond 3 -4 days out and especially after 120 hrs. So I have been mostly relying on the GFS, GEFS, and EPS means for the high temperatures beyond 72-96 and especially 120 hrs. We didn’t have much heat last summer so not sure exactly when this error began. The Euro did pretty well with the record heat during the summer of 2022. 
 

New run

 

Old run

 

Another board I'm on tracks 100° forecast days for Philly for all 4 runs per day.  Last year the gfs forecast 100 over 90 times, the euro never did.  This year, maybe they flip flopped

[lee59]

We may get hot later in the week but not today. Another pleasant day here with a high of 81 and nice sea breeze. Curently 76.

[doncat]

Made it to 90° here on the west shore of si.

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Another board I'm on tracks 100° forecast days for Philly for all 4 runs per day.  Last year the gfs forecast 100 over 90 times, the euro never did.  This year, maybe they flip flopped

When have had our actual 100° days at Newark in recent years both the GFS and Euro agreed with each other and the HRRR came on board once within its 48 hour range. The Euro and GFS would have highs forecast in the upper 90s and then the warmth usually overperformed by a few degrees. 

[jm1220]

Ambrose Jet certainly wasn’t a bust. JFK gusting to 40 last hour. Might want to avoid the S Shore beaches especially late afternoon this week.