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June 2024


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18z HRRR gives us a decent batch of rain late at night, well after the storm threat this afternoon. Who knows, but I hope we can pull off a decent soaking whether it's from a storm this afternoon or moderate rain at night. 

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14 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Storms are approaching my location now.  Lightning activity with these storms is quite minimal currently.  Only 6 strikes detected in the past three hours according to my Tempest.

Will see what happens with the batch heading in now but the showers here earlier today looked more impressive on radar then they were thru the tipper. We shall see. 

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24 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Will see what happens with the batch heading in now but the showers here earlier today looked more impressive on radar then they were thru the tipper. We shall see. 

We picked up a quick 0.25” with this feature with minimal lighting.  Temperature has dropped 18 degrees and is now down to 64.

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Following this evening's showers and thunderstorms, a pleasant weekend lies ahead. In New York City, highs will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s tomorrow and the middle and upper 70s on Sunday. Morning lows will be in the lower 60s in the City and 50s outside the City.

Afterward, a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures will develop. Parts of the region could experience their first heatwave of the summer next week. The most anomalous heat will affect the Great Lakes region, Upstate New York, southern Canada, and northern New England. The potential exists for Burlington to make a run at 100° at the height of the heat.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall.

The SOI was +4.22 yesterday.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.220 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.4° (3.4° above normal). That would tie June 2024 with June 1966 as the second warmest June on record.

 

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