kat5hurricane Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 4 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: I just like it cause it upsets @MJO812 and @nycwinter and some people seem to get so bothered that people like hot weather. Those same 2 I just tagged always try to gloat about cold and rain (had to listen to them all March and April) so now it's payback time. I also like it for the beach and pool. Unless you have a heated pool it sucks getting in when it's only 75 to 80. When it's 90...its the best. That's been the only negative of it being somewhat "cooler" since Memorial Day weekend is that it's not ideal for beach goers so as an avid beach goer I'm all for some 90 degree days in our future but also as an avid Midtown Manhattan worker that likes to take long walks during lunch and he outside in general not looking forward to the Swamp Ass, as the illustrious @MJO812likes to put it, Days that lie ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 meso models are showing a 2"+ max somewhere over the metro tomorrow 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Timing looks to be tomorrow afternoon for storms west to east. Out of here by early evening on the nam. Hrrr is very different with heaviest at night I have a doubleheader for softball at 6:30pm. Would suck to get rained out. Hope the storms come straight west to east, that's when they usually split to the north and south of me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 59 minutes ago, forkyfork said: meso models are showing a 2"+ max somewhere over the metro tomorrow Need it! Grass is starting to brown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 That was a very comfortable 4 day stretch with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, but now back to the well above average temps. It's 88 degrees here right now. Still feels pretty comfortable though with the dewpoint at 55. Nice day. We definitely want the higher dewpoints for storms tomorrow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Let's see how much of that activity is actually left by the time it reaches the beach communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: That was a very comfortable 4 day stretch with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s, but now back to the well above average temps. It's 88 degrees here right now. Still feels pretty comfortable though with the dewpoint at 55. Nice day. We definitely want the higher dewpoints for storms tomorrow though. Euro is 82 Sat and Upper 70s Sun. Not too bad. It also went from 106 degrees next Thursday here at 00z to now 91 at 12z. Still a hot stretch coming after the weekend. 100s in Maine next Friday, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Current temp 89/DP62/RH 42% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 The 12z Euro is beginning to shift to another over the top warm up for next week like we have often seen in recent years. So like the GFS is showing, the warmest temperatures may initially go to our north. But we’ll have to see if the warmest day ends up being when the warmth begins to shift south before another cold front arrives. That may be the best chance of the locally onshore SSE flow shifting to the SW before the heatwave ends. New run 0z Thu 20 Jun Old run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z Euro is beginning to shift to another over the top warm up for next week like we have often seen in recent years. So like the GFS is showing, the warmest temperatures may initially go to our north. But we’ll have to see if the warmest day ends up being when the warmth begins to shift south before another cold front arrives. That may be the best chance of the locally onshore SSE flow shifting to the SW before the heatwave ends. New run 0z Thu 20 Jun Old run Yes this is one of the things I've mentioned as we watched the different model solutions come in. The over the top can still bring us a few hot days but less likely the 100 degree kind of heat and afternoon onshore winds drop temperatures nearer the coast meaning our daily maximums tend to be at or before 1PM. So while it may be 100 degrees in Burlington Vt Central Park can be 89 or 91 and struggling to get even there. Also this kind of set up can minimize our number of 90+ days. In prior posts I've mentioned I thought we might see this sort of over the top this summer season. WX/PT 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 34 minutes ago, FPizz said: Euro is 82 Sat and Upper 70s Sun. Not too bad. It also went from 106 degrees next Thursday here at 00z to now 91 at 12z. Still a hot stretch coming after the weekend. 100s in Maine next Friday, lol Yeah it's good timing for Father's Day weekend. Comfortable temps and very low humidity. I still think we'll see some mid 90s next week, but the extreme 100 degree heat is looking unlikely for our area. Some of those earlier Euro runs were likely overdone. Bluewave did a good job explaining the reason. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 the euro is probably too amplified and north with the core of the heat 3 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the euro is probably too amplified and north with the core of the heat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 If we can avoid the super high dews, then the nights should allow AC's to catch up overnight. But if we get the high dews it may limit the high 90s/low 100 potential but would keep lows in the upper 70s swamp central. I'd be more than happy with lower 90s with moderate dews, but I feel like our options are lower 90s with 70 dews or upper 90s/low 100s and 60 dews. At least this will take the "chill" out of the swimming pools in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 very unlikely 100's would even verify even before central park grew all that grass.. i am not concerned .... 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Tomorrow will be very warm with a high in the middle and upper 80s. Some hot spots could reach or exceed 90°. A strong thunderstorm is possible during the afternoon or evening as a cold front crosses the region. Any thunderstorm could contain briefly heavy downpours, gusty winds, and possibly some hail. A pleasant weekend will follow. Afterward, the potential exists for a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures. Parts of the region could experience their first heatwave of the summer next week. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was +4.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.950 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (3.2° above normal). That would tie June 2024 with June 1994 as the third warmest June on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 Hight for the day was 90 here. Current temp 84/DP 65/RH 53% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Another decent day here. High was 82 with a nice sea breeze. Now a comfortable 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 19 minutes ago, lee59 said: Another decent day here. High was 82 with a nice sea breeze. Now a comfortable 72 Very comfortable here in Melville as well. 72 and it feels cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Beautiful day. Got 9 holes in after work. 84 high, 71 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14 Author Share Posted June 14 Looks like some spots will get hit pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 The 0z GFS is also initially bringing the 100° heat to our north next Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge is so strong that the surface high is east of New England instead of down near Bermuda like it used to be with these heatwaves in the past. So a large expansion of the subtropical ridge from the days past like we have frequently seen in recent years. We get just enough SSE flow from around NYC and east for a sea breeze influence instead of deep westerly flow at least Tuesday and Wednesday. I think the ensemble means are smoothing the ridge out too much. So these OP runs which show near record 600 dm heights could be correct. It’s possible that the 100° heat could sag south toward our area before the heatwave ends. But those details are still outside the best range of the guidance. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 0z GFS is also initially bringing the 100° heat to our north next Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge is so strong that the surface high is east of New England instead of down near Bermuda like it used to be with these heatwaves in the past. So a large expansion of the subtropical ridge from the days past like we have frequently seen in recent years. We get just enough SSE flow from around NYC and east for a sea breeze influence instead of deep westerly flow at least Tuesday and Wednesday. I think the ensemble means are smoothing the ridge out too much. So these OP runs which show near record 600 dm heights could be correct. It’s possible that the 100° heat could sag south toward our area before the heatwave ends. But those details are still outside the best range of the guidance. I guess now we need to start looking out for Nantucket Highs in the summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 14 hours ago, forkyfork said: the euro is probably too amplified and north with the core of the heat Looks very hot for Montreal and Canada as is typical in the new regime 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 18 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I guess now we need to start looking out for Nantucket Highs in the summer? The GFS shows the SSE flow as the heatwave moves in next Tuesday and Wednesday. It has 100s NW of Boston. There could even be near 100° readings just west of the sea breeze influence in portions of Central NJ near Philly. But you can see the core of the +20C 850mb temperature axis starting out just to our north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14 Author Share Posted June 14 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Hrrr blows everything up east of 95. West of there not much 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS shows the SSE flow as the heatwave moves in next Tuesday and Wednesday. It has 100s NW of Boston. There could even be near 100° readings just west of the sea breeze influence in portions of Central NJ near Philly. But you can see the core of the +20C 850mb temperature axis starting out just to our north. Yep, with that we’d probably reach low 90s IMBY but the south shore would be mid 80s. Of course this makes the humidity worse and will drive the SSTs up faster. Even if it’s a few degrees cooler near the coast doesn’t make it feel any better. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Hrrr blows everything up east of 95. West of there not much That doesn’t look very impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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