tdp146 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 2 hours ago, bluewave said: These over the top wam ups have become more common in recent years as the shore of Hudson Bay reached 95° before Newark did this year. So I guess Canada will be our source region for heat now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Forecast is now 94 for friday..ewr 95 Yeah and as I mentioned yesterday, it appears that the heat will start on Thursday with low 90s. The timing of the heat moved up with Thursday and Friday the hot days, and then a little cooler with lower humidity for next weekend. We can hope for a storm with the front late Friday too. That looks like our only chance in this dry pattern over the next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9 Author Share Posted June 9 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah and as I mentioned yesterday, it appears that the heat will start on Thursday with low 90s. The timing of the heat moved up with Thursday and Friday the hot days, and then cooler with lower humidity for next weekend. We can hope for a storm with the front late Friday too. That looks like our only chance in this dry pattern over the next week. Saturday could be one of those hot dry post frontal days with temps still reaching 90 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Saturday could be one of those hot dry post frontal days with temps still reaching 90 Yeah that's certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9 Author Share Posted June 9 Would be our first heatwave if that occurs with Sunday dropping back to mid 80s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 With the showers coming through this morning Newark has had at least a T of rain on every weekend since the beginning of March. Newark Jun 8-9……….T Jun 1-2……….T May 25-25…..T May 18-19…..0.04 May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Clouds breaking and partly sunny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 9 Author Share Posted June 9 41 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Clouds breaking and partly sunny Should be a nice mid and late afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 jacket weather this time of day nice breeze cool temps not bad at all.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 7 hours ago, bluewave said: These over the top wam ups have become more common in recent years as the shore of Hudson Bay reached 95° before Newark did this year. Overall jet stream has shifted north, It effects us differently in different seasons. That stuff happening again screams ridge up into NE this Winter imo, as the base state. We would need a -EPO to break it. -NAO probably won't be able to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 4 hours ago, bluewave said: With the showers coming through this morning Newark has had at least a T of rain on every weekend since the beginning of March. Newark Jun 8-9……….T Jun 1-2……….T May 25-25…..T May 18-19…..0.04 May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31 Weekend rule is crazy! I remember in the early 2000s it was 30-40% more likely to rain on the weekend for some time. Would love to see some long term stats vs mathematical anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 After some showers, the clouds broke making for a partly sunny and pleasant afternoon with readings in the 70s. The pleasant temperatures will continue for several more days. Through Tuesday, temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Minimum temperatures will be in the lower 60s in New York City and 50s outside the City. A warming trend will likely commence after midweek. Afterward, the potential exists for a long stretch of above normal temperatures. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -20.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.348 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (3.1° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 3 hours ago, nycwinter said: jacket weather this time of day nice breeze cool temps not bad at all.. 5 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 5 hours ago, nycwinter said: jacket weather this time of day nice breeze cool temps not bad at all.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Highs: PHL: 82 EWR: 80 ACY: 79 BLM: 79 New Brnswck: 78 JFK: 78 TTN: 78 TEB: 76 LGA: 76 ISP: 74 NYC: 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Records: Highs: EWR: 102 (2011) first 100 NYC: 97 (1933) LGA: 99 (2008) JFK: 96 (1984) Lows: EWR: 47 (1957) NYC: 47 (1980) LGA: 49 (1980) JFK: 48 (1980) Historical: 1953 - A tornado hit the town of Worcester MA killing ninety persons. The northeastern states usually remain free of destructive tornadoes, however in this case a low pressure system, responsible for producing severe thunderstorms in Michigan and Ohio the previous day, brought severe weather to New Hampshire and central Massachusetts. The tornado, up to a mile in width at times, tracked 46 miles through Worcester County. It mangled steel towers built to withstand winds of 375 mph. Debris from the tornado fell in the Boston area, and adjacent Atlantic Ocea. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1966: Hurricane Alma made landfall over the eastern Florida panhandle becoming the earliest hurricane to make landfall on the United States mainland. 1972 - A cloudburst along the eastern slopes of the Black Hills of South Dakota produced as much as 14 inches of rain resulting in the Rapid City flash flood disaster. The rains, which fell in about four hours time, caused the Canyon Lake Dam to collapse. A wall of water swept through the city drowning 237 persons, and causing more than 100 million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Lightning struck Tire Mountain near Denver CO, destroying two million tires out of a huge pile of six million tires. Thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes around Denver, and a man was killed at Conifer CO when strong thunderstorm winds lifted up a porch and dropped it on him. A thunderstorm near Compton MD produced two inch hail, and high winds which destroyed twenty barns and ten houses injuring five persons. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina to the Central Gulf Coast Region. Hail in North Carolina caused more than five million dollars damage to property, and more than sixty million dollars damage to crops. Hail three and a half inches in diameter was reported at New Bern NC. Thunderstorms in the Central High Plains produced eighteen inches of hail at Fountain CO. The temperature at Del Rio TX soared to an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Severe weather abated for a date, however, showers and thunderstorms continued to drench the eastern U.S. with torrential rains. Milton, FL, was deluged with 15.47 inches in 24 hours. Record heat and prolonged drought in south central Texas left salt deposits on power lines and insulators near the coast, and when nighttime dew caused arcing, the city of Brownsville was plunged into darkness. (The National Weather Summary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 20 hours ago, tdp146 said: So I guess Canada will be our source region for heat now? There have been a few scenarios that we have been experiencing in recent years with these over the top warm ups. The first one is that heat builds from Mexico to the Western US and moves into Canada and the Northern Tier but never really gets here. This happens when the ridge is so strong to the north that it leaves a weakness underneath. This is where we get onshore flow here keeping the highs lower. Then the other is when this pattern is accompanied with enough height rises here that the warmth starts out in the West and travels into Canada and then southeast down to our area. Our traditional heatwaves from the past would start out in the Southern Plains and move across Chicago and the Great Lakes into our area a few days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 58 here this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 hotter trend on the eps 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 1 hour ago, bluewave said: There have been a few scenarios that we have been experiencing in recent years with these over the top warm ups. The first one is that heat builds from Mexico to the Western US and moves into Canada and the Northern Tier but never really gets here. This happens when the ridge is so strong to the north that it leaves a weakness underneath. This is where we get onshore flow here keeping the highs lower. Then the other is when this pattern is accompanied with enough height rises here that the warmth starts out in the West and travels into Canada and then southeast down to our area. Our traditional heatwaves from the past would start out in the Southern Plains and move across Chicago and the Great Lakes into our area a few days later. In the winter, we had the Pacific Jet pumping warmer air almost directly into Canada, so at times, western and central Canada was not a source for cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 66 / 51. Overall dry and near normal the next 72 hours. Warmth and some heat build in by Thu (6/13) / Fri (6/14) some 90s especially in the warmer spots. Turn to hotter by the 17th where a sustained ridge into the east with heat and potential first heatwave in the cards. Monthly departures pushing +5 or more the 20th. Beyond there the close of the month looking overall warm - hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Euro is the hottest in the 7 day and beyond http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMCNA_0z/test8.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 If you like rain - head to Southern Florida 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 54 this morning. Crisp morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 1 hour ago, psv88 said: 54 this morning. Crisp morning Yep. I had to put on a… wait for it…. Hoodie! 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: hotter trend on the eps 95+ here we come It's been dry too which could help boost temps further. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 easy 100 if that pattern verifies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Start watering now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 32 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep. I had to put on a… wait for it…. Hoodie! I went out for a garden walk with shorts on. Turned around and went back in to put on jeans. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 95+ here we come It's been dry too which could help boost temps further. The first time we get a deep westerly flow like that many of us will see 100s. We’ve been spoiled with SW or S wind heatwaves the last few summers. I guess we’re fortunate that there’s no major drought that westerly wind would come from but that’s a downslope flow that would heat up big time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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