forkyfork Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 1 minute ago, uofmiami said: Trough bias went from SW of country to NW Atlantic now? Haha maybe an amped bias everywhere 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Yes, I have also noticed that the OP Euro can be too amped with closed lows at times near the Northeast coast day 6-10. But I have also seen the ensembles smoothing out the heights at times too much and can miss closed low positions. The ensembles seem to do better when there isn’t a closed low to deal with. The OP GFS and CMC also have a closed low exiting around the same time period but are a little further east than the Euro. So the further east this feature gets the quicker and higher temperatures we will experience. I only bring this up since it has been such a persistent feature since late March. Even a small influence from a low to our east could result in more onshore flow especially east of NYC. This is just the day 6-10 period. So it’s possible the 11-15 means eventually allow the ridge to expand enough into our region for the first major 95°+ heat of the season. I would just like to see the upper low to our east actually get far enough away for a deep SW flow to develop which is possible if the low kicks far enough east. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yes, I have also noticed that the OP Euro can be too amped with closed lows at times near the Northeast coast day 6-10. But I have also seen the ensembles smoothing out the heights at times too much and can miss closed low positions. The ensembles seem to do better when there isn’t a closed low to deal with. The OP GFS and CMC also have a closed low exiting around the same time period but are a little further east than the Euro. So the further east this feature gets the quicker and higher temperatures we will experience. I only bring this up since it has been such a persistent feature since late March. Even a small influence from a low to our east could result in more onshore flow especially east of NYC. This is just the day 6-10 period. So it’s possible the 11-15 means eventually allow the ridge to expand enough into our region for the first major 95°+ heat of the season. I would just like to see the upper low to our east actually get far enough away for a deep SW flow to develop which is possible if the low kicks far enough east. I keep coming back to the difference being this time the strong trough in the W. I think that makes all the difference this time of year allowing the SW flow to be the predominant mechanism. Also keep in mind the AN SST off the E coast will play a factor as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 24 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: I keep coming back to the difference being this time the strong trough in the W. I think that makes all the difference this time of year allowing the SW flow to be the predominant mechanism. Also keep in mind the AN SST off the E coast will play a factor as well. Whenever we start seeing those deep troughs out West big wam ups usually follow. But sometimes it can take time when there is a persistent upper low east of New England. So at least in the initial phases of the pattern there could be more of an onshore flow pattern especially east of NYC. If that low gets out of the way completely day 11-15, then it’s off to the races especially when the source region has been setting record after record in recent months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 In Hauppauge, looks like something’s trying to pop out east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 85 degrees with a dewpoint of 52 here right now. Very comfortable today ... perfect weather for outdoor activities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 A period of generally dry weather will commence tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will be limited during this period. Through early next week, temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend could commence after midweek. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. The first week of June was the 14th warmest on record for New York City and 10th warmest on record for Philadelphia. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -26.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.139 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (3.0° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 50 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A period of generally dry weather will commence tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will be limited during this period. Through early next week, temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend could commence after midweek. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. The first week of June was the 14th warmest on record for New York City and 10th warmest on record for Philadelphia. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -26.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.139 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (3.0° above normal). We'll see where it ends up but no way June is going to finish below normal that's for sure. Question is do you take the over / under on the opening bid of 3 degrees above? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Just had the outflow boundary evident on radar move through here a minute ago. Only lasted a few seconds, but it was wild on an otherwise quiet evening. The storms it originated from to the north didn't look very impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Fantastic evening. Decent breeze, no humidity. 68 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 18 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Fantastic evening. Decent breeze, no humidity. 68 degrees. Yes, strong north breeze and very comfortable. 72 degrees and wind NNW gusting to 25. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Highs: ACY: 89 EWR: 88 PHL: 87 New Brnswck: 85 BLM: 85 TEB: 85 LGA: 85 TTN: 85 ISP: 84 JFK: 83 NYC: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (1999) NYC: 96 (1925) LGA: 97 (1999) JFK: 92 (1999) Lows: EWR: 48 (1945) NYC: 47 (1879) LGA: 50 (2000) JFK: 50 (2000) Historical: 1816 - A famous June snow occurred in the northeastern U.S. Danville VT reported drifts of snow and sleet twenty inches deep. The Highlands were white all day, and flurries were observed as far south as Boston MA. (David Ludlum) 1816: The following is found on page 31, from the book, "History of the American Clock Business for the Past Sixty Year, and Life of Chauncey Jerome," written by Chauncey Jerome. The book was published in 1860. "The next summer was a cold one of 1816, which none of the old people will ever forget, and which many of the young have heard a great deal about. There was ice and snow in every month of the year. I well remember on the seventh of June, while on my way to work, about a mile from home, dressed throughout with thick woolen clothes and an overcoat on, my hands got so cold that I was obliged to lay down my tools and put on a pair of mittens which I had in my pocket. It snowed about an hour that day." This bitter cold event occurred in Plymouth, Connecticut. 1972 - Richmond VA experienced its worst flood of record as rains from Hurricane Agnes pushed the water level at the city locks to a height of 36.5 feet, easily topping the previous record of thirty feet set in 1771. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in the Laramie Mountains of eastern Wyoming produced golf ball size hail, and up to five inches of rain in just one hour. Half a dozen cities in the Upper Mississippi Valley reported record high temperatures for the date, including La Crosse, WI, with a reading of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data) 1988 - Snow whitened some of the mountains of northern California and northwestern Nevada. Twenty-six cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Rapid City SD with a reading of 104 degrees, and Miles City, MT, with a high of 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from southern Oklahoma and eastern Texas to northwestern Florida through the day and night. Thunderstorms spawned 22 tornadoes, including a dozen in Louisiana, and there were 119 reports of large hail and damaging winds. A strong (F-2) tornado at Gross Tete LA killed two persons, injured thirty others, and another strong (F-2) tornado injured 60 persons at Lobdell LA. Softball size hail was reported at Hillsboro TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Some evening shots during the passage of a distant thunderstorm near sunset: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 a sliver of a dark red moon on the western horizon, an inauspicious sign 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 with how humid it been last few days tonight temps in the 60's dewpoint low 50's it feels kinda chilly.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 87 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: a sliver of a dark red moon on the western horizon, an inauspicious sign Good evening Will. Forky’s next avatar will look like Nosferatu. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 wow 63 in the city cooler then i thought i will go out in a hour with a jacket on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: wow 63 in the city cooler then i thought i will go out in a hour with a jacket on... I have shorts on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Ensembles beginning to pick up on the stronger blocking lingering with more low pressure east of New England which the OP runs have been showing for mid-June. New run Old run 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 68 / 54 off a low of 53. Gorgeous day ahead - low 80s. Overall near normal and dry the next 5 days, still would watch Tue pm and into Wed for trend for showers but latest forecast keeps much or all rain well south. Ridging builds in spurts with signal for a fast push and surge of heat into the area Fri (6/14) and next Sat (6/15) before a brief trough/front moves in. Then much warmer by 6/17 - the extent of ridging to be determined - tendency for weakness into the NE may persist a bit longer and keep the heat in / out rather than sustained but overall warmer / hotter once to mid month. Ridge should bounce back much of the second half for a day or 2 of heat before sustained heat etsablishes late int he month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Jun temp dep :Through the first week (6/7) EWR: +6.8 JFK: +6.4 PHL: +6.3 LGA: +5.4 TTN: +5.4 NYC: +4.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Just now, SACRUS said: Jun temp dep :Through the first week (6/7) EWR: +6.8 JFK: +6.4 PHL: +6.3 LGA: +5.4 TTN: +5.4 NYC: +4.9 How many 90s for those locations? Minimal right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Just now, FPizz said: How many 90s for those locations? Minimal right 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 Looks to me that we might see 90 degrees as early as Thursday. For people that don't like the heat, enjoy the very comfortable 5 day period that we have before then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 8 Author Share Posted June 8 9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Looks to me that we might see 90 degrees as early as Thursday. For people that don't like the heat, enjoy the very comfortable 5 day period that we have before then. And ewr is already nearly +7 for the month. It's also looking very dry the next 10 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 24 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Jun temp dep :Through the first week (6/7) EWR: +6.8 JFK: +6.4 PHL: +6.3 LGA: +5.4 TTN: +5.4 NYC: +4.9 Insane given all this blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 35 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Looks to me that we might see 90 degrees as early as Thursday. For people that don't like the heat, enjoy the very comfortable 5 day period that we have before then. i always tell myself if we can get through the spring with comfortable temps i will take it and we did this year so it's summertime you expect heat ...now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 4 hours ago, nycwinter said: wow 63 in the city cooler then i thought i will go out in a hour with a jacket on... Good morning nycw, Anthony. There is always room for all. Stay comfortable, as always … 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I have shorts on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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