June 2024

[SACRUS]

 

73 / 66 and winds now more NE, partly cloudy. Not as warm as Mon with highs upper 70s to low 80s.   Cloudy on Wed with PM showers, Thu more rain before clearing out Fri (6/7) as trough builds in and front clears. The weekend is still a bit of an unknown as trough cuts off and placement could bring clear or clouds and rain.  Beyond that trough is in/near the NE through the middle of next week.  Overall near normal and no signs of heat through 6/9.  Beyond there warmer / ridging by mid month.

 

Low clouds moving E - W

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Wouldn't take much to get 95+

If the pattern flips in late June we'll see 100s. 

Most of the heat this season IMO is likely to go over the top or be very short-lived. The jet stream is going to set up and already is set up further south of normal, the Bermuda HP further south and east of normal. This in combination with the recurrent upper low over eastern Canada and the nw Atlantic wrapping b-door fronts and the like, days of cyclonic flow and of course the blocking. I'm projecting 5-11 90+ days mostly from mid July to mid August. Of course overnight minimums will keep us above normal overall on temps. But I'm not seeing an extremely hot summer incoming. 

WX/PT

[SACRUS]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Newark is on track for only the 3rd year since 2010 with no 90° readings between 5-25 and 6-7. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2024-06-07	89	4
2023-06-07	91	0
2022-06-07	98	0
2021-06-07	97	0
2020-06-07	91	0
2019-06-07	90	0
2018-06-07	92	0
2017-06-07	82	0
2016-06-07	96	0
2015-06-07	91	0
2014-06-07	88	0
2013-06-07	94	0
2012-06-07	92	0
2011-06-07	95	0
2010-06-07	95	0

Can you pull the means for those periods?

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Most of the heat this season IMO is likely to go over the top or be very short-lived. The jet stream is going to set up and already is set up further south of normal, the Bermuda HP further south and east of normal. This in combination with the recurrent upper low over eastern Canada and the nw Atlantic wrapping b-door fronts and the like, days of cyclonic flow and of course the blocking. I'm projecting 5-11 90+ days mostly from mid July to mid August. Of course overnight minimums will keep us above normal overall on temps. But I'm not seeing an extremely hot summer incoming. 

WX/PT

I'd be happy with that.   If that's true with the Bermuda high it would keep alot of the tropical activity offshore too...however I'll believe it when I see it-last truly cool summers were 13-14 and 14-15 with the -EPO

[uofmiami]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

I'd be happy with that.   If that's true with the Bermuda high it would keep alot of the tropical activity offshore too

Yes, a lot of fish canes.  Those that slide further S of course will have GOM most likely in the crosshairs. 

[bluewave]

23 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Can you pull the means for those periods?

The means are in 9th place for warmest. But the 90° heat has been muted by all the onshore flow, clouds, and showers. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1991-06-03	78.6	0
2	2011-06-03	76.4	0
3	2007-06-03	76.0	0
4	2016-06-03	75.8	0
5	2010-06-03	74.4	0
6	1986-06-03	73.9	0
7	2012-06-03	73.6	0
8	1989-06-03	73.3	0
9	2024-06-03	72.8	0
-	1999-06-03	72.8	0

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Most of the heat this season IMO is likely to go over the top or be very short-lived. The jet stream is going to set up and already is set up further south of normal, the Bermuda HP further south and east of normal. This in combination with the recurrent upper low over eastern Canada and the nw Atlantic wrapping b-door fronts and the like, days of cyclonic flow and of course the blocking. I'm projecting 5-11 90+ days mostly from mid July to mid August. Of course overnight minimums will keep us above normal overall on temps. But I'm not seeing an extremely hot summer incoming. 

WX/PT

I don't buy it. Ensemble and seasonal models show the pattern changing after mid month to a more classic summer pattern. 

El Nino to Nina transitions are hot. Our SST cold pool is gone too

[Allsnow]

 

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Most of the heat this season IMO is likely to go over the top or be very short-lived. The jet stream is going to set up and already is set up further south of normal, the Bermuda HP further south and east of normal. This in combination with the recurrent upper low over eastern Canada and the nw Atlantic wrapping b-door fronts and the like, days of cyclonic flow and of course the blocking. I'm projecting 5-11 90+ days mostly from mid July to mid August. Of course overnight minimums will keep us above normal overall on temps. But I'm not seeing an extremely hot summer incoming. 

WX/PT

I'm definitely taking the under on this. El Niño to La Niña are typically very hot summers and even with a "cool" pattern we are still solidly above average (many of our highs as well have been just above normal). Back door fronts also tend to disappear by the time we get to late June. I think once the humidity kicks on, it is wall to wall 80s-90s all summer. Models are already hinting at this. 

[Pellice]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

This guy was in Long Island over last weekend.  It will be interesting to see what the NY Rare Birds Committee decides - whether it will be accepted into the state records or not.  Flamingoes do not wander like roseate spoonbills do, and it isn't the right time of the year for "post-breeding dispersal."  I can't think of any storm with strong enough south winds last week to carry it northwards.  The Committee will consider the winds, prior sightings of flamingoes, whether the bird is banded (though some wild Florida birds are also banded), whether any collections have reported one missing, etc.  Very exciting!

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The means are in 9th place for warmest. But the 90° heat has been muted by all the onshore flow, clouds, and showers. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1991-06-03	78.6	0
2	2011-06-03	76.4	0
3	2007-06-03	76.0	0
4	2016-06-03	75.8	0
5	2010-06-03	74.4	0
6	1986-06-03	73.9	0
7	2012-06-03	73.6	0
8	1989-06-03	73.3	0
9	2024-06-03	72.8	0
-	1999-06-03	72.8	0

 

Despite the lack of higher maximums and 90 degree heat we are riding means closer to the hotter summers.  When we get ridging (assuming we stay fairly close to normal rainfall or below) look for heat to overperform.    This cutoff coming later this week and weekend still a bit tough to forecast  if we have a few unsettled rainy days or ner normal/cooler dry days.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Despite the lack of higher maximums and 90 degree heat we are riding means closer to the hotter summers.  When we get ridging (assuming we stay fairly close to normal rainfall or below) look for heat to overperform.    This cutoff coming later this week and weekend still a bit tough to forecast  if we have a few unsettled rainy days or ner normal/cooler dry days.

It will be interesting to see what happens going forward. I posted earlier on the lack of 90° days during the last week of May since 2010 at Newark and fewer total annual 90° days than the years with 90°+ heat. This pattern continuing into the first week of June is running counter to the other El Niño to La Niña transition summers. These summers have traditionally featured very high 90° day counts. Either the pattern turns around during the 2nd half of June or the competing marine heatwaves around the world are interfering with the traditional El Niño to La Niña summer pattern this year. We probably will need more time to sort things out. 
 

 

[Stormlover74]

Thursday afternoon looking like the better opportunity for heavier rain now though the hrrr does have some decent activity tomorrow night

[SACRUS]

 

Highs

PHL: 89
TEB: 84
TTN: 84
EWR: 82
New Brnswck: 82
LGA: 81
ACY: 80
NYC: 79
JFK: 78
BLM: 76
ISP: 74

[SACRUS]

Records

Highs:

EWR:  97 (1943)
NYC: 99 (1925)
LGA: 96 (1943)
JFK: 91 (1971)


Lows:

EWR: 48 (1964)
NYC: 48  (1926)
LGA: 51 (2023)
JFK: 49 (2023)

 

Historical :

 

 

1825 - A hurricane struck Long Island NY leveling trees and causing damage to ships. The early season hurricane, which originated around Cuba, caused major damage along the Atlantic coast from Charleston SC to New York City. Many were lost at sea. (David Ludlum)

 

1825: A severe storm of tropical origin swept up the Atlantic Coast during the first week of June 1825 with reports of significant damage from Florida to New York City. Shipping logs told of a disturbance at Santo Domingo on May 28th and Cuba on June 1st. Gales were reported at St. Augustine, Florida on the 2nd. The Norfolk and Portsmouth Herald reported "undiminished violence" from the gale force winds for 27 hours, ending on June 4th. The effect of the storm reached well inland. Washington had cold, heavy rain all day on the 4th with high winds laying the crops in the vicinity. The wind also tore up trees by the roots in front of the State House in Philadelphia. This storm impacted the New Jersey Coast and the Long Island area as well with high winds and a two-foot storm surge. A Columbian frigate was driven ashore as were many smaller boats. The largest loss of life occurred along the Long Island shore when a schooner capsized. The entire crew of seven was lost.

1860 - Iowa's Commanche Tornado , with wind speeds estimated in excess of 300 mph, was unquestionably one of the worst experienced by early settlers, with nearly a million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

1877: A tornado of estimated F4 intensity touched down just west of Mt. Carmel, Illinois and moved east-northeast, devastating the town. 20 businesses and 100 homes were damaged or destroyed. At least 16 people and as many as 30 were killed, with 100 others injured.

1982 - A four day storm began over New England which produced up to 14 inches of rain in southern Connecticut breaching twenty-three dams and breaking two others. Damage was estimated at more than 276 million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Early morning thunderstorms in south Texas produced 6.5 inches of rain at Hockheim, and five inches at Hallettsville, in just a few hours. Afternoon thunderstorms in Virginia deluged northern Halifax County with 5.5 inches of rain in two hours. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 76 mph at Dusty WA, and wind gusts to 88 mph at Swanquarter NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A dozen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temp- eratures for the date, including Atlantic City NJ with a reading of 40 degrees. Fifteen cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Glasgow MT and Havre MT with readings of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from the Southern Plains Region and the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southern Atlantic Coast Region during the day and into the night. Just four tornadoes were reported, but there were 87 reports of large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Showers, thundershowers, and periods of rain will likely arrive tomorrow night or Thursday. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall is likely. In the wake of the system, temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s into the weekend.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall.

The SOI was -2.18 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.189 today.

 

[forkyfork]

pretty impressive hrrr run for thursday

[Stormlover74]

[psv88]

79 today

[forkyfork]

16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

wish we had a little more cape with the warm front

[lee59]

79 here today, now 65.

[SnoSki14]

You know it's bad when blocking is still leading to AN temperatures. 

Wait til some ridging starts showing up which ensembles are now pointing to. It's gonna get very hot. 

[bluewave]

The next week to 10 days will feature a strong  +PNA -NAO pattern which would be welcomed during the winter. But we are getting some hints of a pattern change to warmer approaching the 20th. The +PNA pattern weakens along with the -NAO. So it will be interesting to see if we finally start getting the Nino to La Niña transition warmer summer pattern as we approach the 20th. 
 

[jm1220]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

You know it's bad when blocking is still leading to AN temperatures. 

Wait til some ridging starts showing up which ensembles are now pointing to. It's gonna get very hot. 

If we get a sustained westerly wind heat event (which might be hard with the ridge poking so far north, we’d be prone to more of a southerly flow) it’ll get well into the 100s for most. 

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The next week to 10 days will feature a strong  +PNA -NAO pattern which would be welcomed during the winter. But we are getting some hints of a pattern change to warmer approaching the 20th. The +PNA pattern weakens along with the -NAO. So it will be interesting to see if we finally start getting the Nino to La Niña transition warmer summer pattern as we approach the 20th. 
 

We'll be cooking if that happens. Peak sun angle too

[forkyfork]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll be cooking if that happens. Peak sun angle too

that's a big change over the n pac. it's probably coming

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We'll be cooking if that happens. Peak sun angle too

The models look like they will have a dueling ridge pattern. One ridge anchored to the record heat and drought in Mexico. And another ridge near the Northeast. But we may continue with enough high pressure just east of New England for onshore flow especially east of NYC. 
 

 

[SACRUS]

 

69 / 65 and some low clouds over the area.  Mainly cloudy today with some breaks in the clouds - humid and upper70s / low 80s. Showers / rain - storms overnight and into tomorrow.   Clears out Fri (6/7) and the weekend looks dry - near normal but still have suspicion it could turn unsettled - heres hoping to be wrong.   Overall near normal as ridge - west - weakness East continues through the next week or so.  Mid month step to warmer with perhaps a hotter close to the month. 

[SACRUS]

Just now, bluewave said:

The models look like they will have a dueling ridge pattern. One ridge anchored to the record heat and drought in Mexico. And another ridge near the Northeast. But we may continue with enough high pressure just east of New England for onshore flow especially east of NYC. 
 

 

Saw that which leads to a tendency for cut offs - we;ll see how the progression goes - also key is if we can gain some water in the bucket or remain overall near / drier than normal the next 2 weeks.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Saw that which leads to a tendency for cut offs - we;ll see how the progression goes - also key is if we can gain some water in the bucket or remain overall near / drier than normal the next 2 weeks.

The Euro seasonal just updated about an hour ago and is going wet this summer with plenty of tropical moisture input. So it looks like a warm and wet pattern rather than dry heat. Onshore flow and higher dewpoints with a drought feedback ridge near the Rockies and ridge near the Northeast. With very active tropical cyclone tracks undercutting the ridge.