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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weekend (Saturday) looking a little dicey. Hopefully it's not #HawkTuah like it was last weekend. 

oh my god :rolleyes:.   it's amazing how fast that's taking over social media

  • Haha 2
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Doesn't seem to be a lot of model consensus as far as today's threat. 

"Given the uncertainty during this timeframe think that SPC Marginal Risk for severe suffices. Think that the WPC ERO Marginal is also fine. Though will note for the severe risk that the Nadocast and CSU ML still really heavily highlightinga wind threat, maximized from CT into portions of the interior.For timing the latest 00Z NCAR HRRR Neural Network really highlights much of our region for a wind threat with the timing being with the night activity. Could end up seeing more seeing more scattered vs isolated risk if these ML guidance sources panout. Stay tuned as this is a tricky forecast and ultimately will boil down to the mesoscale details.

 

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32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like the core of the EML passes just to our south, though may scoot across southern coastal CT and points east

Yeah congrats Philly.
But maybe S coast in play too. HRRR seems like S coast to pike or so.I 'm not a fan of being on the nrn edge of these typically.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah congrats Philly.
But maybe S coast in play too. HRRR seems like S coast to pike or so.I 'm not a fan of being on the nrn edge of these typically.

 

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, I'm thinking southern Pennsylvania into NJ for best severe potential. Not much north of there. 

Agree. NAM was robust but this seems like a southern special to me. 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Agree. NAM was robust but this seems like a southern special to me. 

I wouldn't totally toss the NAM. If the NAM is correct with how far north the strongest instability gets. More so what we want to watch for through the day via mesoanalysis is where the instability gradient resides. 

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