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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Still unsure about late tomorrow and tomorrow night. The models got a little more aggressive with showers and storms.

The dynamics are pretty impressive for late June and height falls are pretty strong. Not sure how much sfc instability will remain after dark but some decent elevated CAPE to keep things going, especially south of the Pike. Maybe a threat for hail with the strongest storms overnight.

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9 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This makes zero sense. 

However, we all know PWS stations can run warm if baking in sun and not sited properly. Even with a shield it can happen.  In your case BED was a few cooler. I feel like it still happens to yours. Even with a shield my station temps skyrocket when the sun hits my station in the morning, but levels off when it’s more shaded. I can’t help it but fortunately it doesn’t affect my highs.

I deal with the same thing.  My max-min instrument is on the NE side of the house and shielded, but the sun is now rising so far north of due east that it warms nearby surfaces, such that sunny day highs would always occur about 10:30 AM.  On such days I'll look at it about noon while the temp is still rising, and often will see the indicator ~5° above the current reading.  I then shamelessly move the thing down to the current temp, so it will show the true max for that day.

Another 1.68" yesterday, almost all from 5 to 8 PM, for a 2-day total of 3.02", month has gone from quite dry to ahead of the avg since the 19th.  Sandy River rose from 300 cfs to 2500 and is already dropping, due to the localized nature of the downpours.  Flood stage is above 20k cfs, so this was just a blip.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Really good dynamics as you said. Great venting aloft.

The NAM may be overdone a bit but that's some serious 6-hr rainfall totals being spit out over a widespread area. How intense the convection ends up being across S PA and NJ will probably play a significant influence but the signal for flooding is kind of impressive. South coast is also best bet for any strong storms. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

The NAM may be overdone a bit but that's some serious 6-hr rainfall totals being spit out over a widespread area. How intense the convection ends up being across S PA and NJ will probably play a significant influence but the signal for flooding is kind of impressive. South coast is also best bet for any strong storms. 

Could be one of those curled up almost tropical low type biggies on the S coast near triple point.

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20 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

yeah and a few tors on the Cape, the new capital of severe in SNE

I remember growing up in the late 70’s and 80’s that Worcester Cty would get absolutely nailed at least a few times a summer and usually an F1 or F2 tornado as well 

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42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have m yearly physical next month!

I hope all goes well for you. Please make sure to mention it to your PC. It may be nothing at all but it may also be a sign of an underlying medical condition. Hyperthyroidism is a common cause.

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We're getting a summer ...that's all this is.  At least so far.   Last 2 or 3 summers, back to back, were pieces of shit in my opinion. 2020 was smoke miasma prequel to climate change dystopia.  2021 was okay at times...  but a true yuck sticker goes on the next too.

So far we've had not unreasonably rain.  We've had AN T - so more than summer there.  And other than last weekend, we had like 4 in row with utopic temp and sun combos.  Even masturbatory nape massaging breezes -

Last summer was the worst.   Day after day of black mold DP petri dish gloom.   Lot of those days the street lights were popping on by 5:30 because of anvil debris and warm nimbus.   No severe.  Just CC enraged PWAT rainers.

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Maybe some 30% wind probs somewhere? Favored areas look to our south though right now. 

...SUMMARY...
   Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley
   into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday.

   ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

   An upper trough will progress eastward on Wednesday from the
   Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A seasonally
   moist airmass will be in place across much of the Midwest to the
   Mid-Atlantic where strong heating will support moderate to strong
   destabilization. Forcing for ascent associated with the
   eastward-advancing upper trough and one or more MCVs moving across
   the region will support scattered to numerous strong/severe
   thunderstorms through the period. 

   One cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to be focused
   from PA eastward into the NJ/southern NY vicinity ahead of a
   southward sagging cold front. Effective shear magnitudes around
   30-40 kt will support a few supercell and/or bowing structures.
   Steep low and midlevel lapse rates, with mixing to around 1 km,
   suggest damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main
   hazards with this activity. Another cluster of strong/severe storms
   is expected to develop over the higher terrain of eastern KY/WV and
   northern VA. Vertical shear will be weaker with southward extent,
   but deeper mixing with very steep lapse rates is noted in forecast
   soundings. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible
   with this activity. Some potential may exist for higher severe
   probabilities in subsequent outlooks for portions of the
   Mid-Atlantic/Northeast if an organized bowing structure can develop.
   However, confidence in this scenario is too low at this time for
   categorical upgrades.
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