weatherwiz Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: when will the northeast get its first below average month since last november? probably next April 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 I think the 12z NAM has beefed things up for tomorrow. I may start a thread but I'm playing SNES right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 32 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks pretty wet for you guys the next few weeks And less dews. Guess that relentless heat and dew summer without breaks forecast is falling apart… 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 19 minutes ago, forkyfork said: when will the northeast get its first below average month since last november? It’s pretty impressive. We keep bumping the normals up every 10 years yet we still find a way to keep these AN streaks going. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 With that said…there’s no torch here today. 62° at 1030 with drizz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Violence tomorrow 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Other than Tuesday no break in dews next few weeks 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Definitely a break in many areas yesterday and today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Cool graphical look at how wild that 96/80 max/min was at BTV compared to the record books. Red dot is Wednesday’s temps compared to the data set going back to 1883. The purple dot next to it is 7/2/2018 when it was 97/80. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 8 hours ago, Snowedin said: I tell ya the poor beech trees have really taken a beating these last few years with that disease going around and of course all this moisture up until recently has been decimating a good number of them in our area. Thankfully, we have a pretty good variety of trees in our heavily wooded area but I feel for those who aren’t as lucky. I can’t help but wonder if that dreaded term climate change is playing a role in some of these anomalies or if perhaps people are just more aware of their surroundings due to social media and those observations are being relayed at an ever faster pace, creating the illusion of doom and gloom. I’ll let the actual experts around here fill in the rest of the devilish details. Beech in NNE are already stressed by beech bark disease, a combo of fungus and scale insect (both imported) which can destroy timber and beechnut value and eventually kill the tree. The leaf disease is another straw on the camel's back. Beech is the key species for bear in Maine, as oaks are sparse to absent in the state's northerly 2/3 where most bears live. The sows breed at 2-year intervals and following a big beechnut crop they produce lots of triplets and quads, some quints. Few beechnuts, twins at best. Low 60s with light rain, perfect garden watering though .75-1" would be nicer than the 1/4" so far today. Grandkids in SNJ are facing mid-upper 90s with HI 105+. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Violence tomorrow The way the SPC was talking tomorrow looks higher end somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The way the SPC was talking tomorrow looks higher end somewhere. I don't know if we will see this with the new D2 but if the trends continue, I think we will see a 10% TOR somewhere. Now, it is important to note mlvl lapse rates aren't great which is going to scale things back to some degree. But what that probably means is the threat for higher-end, widespread severe is diminished. What we need to watch for, however, is dewpoint pooling. If we can pool dewpoints to 74-76 that will compensate some for the weak lapse rates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 55 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s pretty impressive. We keep bumping the normals up every 10 years yet we still find a way to keep these AN streaks going. In 2019 here 11 of 12 months were below my average, all but July. In the 54 months since then, including this one as only a week of 50° RA could drag the temp BN, 43 (79.6%) have been AN. If we had the full 1991-2020 averages for our site instead of May 1998 forward, the imbalance would've been even greater, as 92-94 (the Pinatubo years) and 96 were all BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 15 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: The way the SPC was talking tomorrow looks higher end somewhere. Just need an EML haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Just need an EML haha. An EML would’ve locked it in 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 2 hours ago, kdxken said: https://x.com/NWSBoston/status/1804469387531022608 Hubbardston tornado in 81 I remember this day pretty well. Was part of a squall line that roared through most of the state. Remember when we used to get squall lines? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 22 Author Share Posted June 22 An Eml tomorrow would probably result in a capped shutout , take the typical lapse rates in that case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: It says winchendon got it also but looking at the track it doesn't even look close to there.. might have been a different tornado, but a wall at the high school in Winchendon came down. 15 homes in Hubbardston were damaged or destroyed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...central into eastern NY...CT...RI...western and central MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221611Z - 221815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage to increase with a corresponding uptick in intensity expected 1-4pm EDT (17-20 UTC). Widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary threat. Marginally severe hail (0.75 to 1.25 inches in diameter) may occur with the strongest cell. An upgrade to Slight Risk is forthcoming in the 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...The 12 UTC (8am EDT) Albany, NY raob showed a very moist profile with PW 1.94 inches and weak lapse rates. Around 500 J/kg MLCAPE was noted in this observed sounding. Visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over central and eastern NY to the south of a few ongoing thunderstorms. A stratus deck is observed over the eastern half of MA into RI, and this stratus loosely corresponds with the placement of a west-northwest to east-southeast oriented stationary front. Additional heating since this morning's raob at Albany (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE likely at midday) has contributed to a destabilizing airmass from central NY east-southeast into CT to the south of the stationary front. Of particular note compared to yesterday, slightly stronger 1-6 km westerly flow (20-35 kt) is observed at the WSR-88D KENX VAD (Albany). This slight enhancement to westerly flow coupled with MLCAPE rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg range and near 2 inches PW, will probably favor a small cluster or two developing over the next several hours. As this thunderstorm cluster matures, it seems plausible a focused area for 50-65 mph gusts and potential widely scattered wind damage may occur from the Hudson Valley into MA/CT and perhaps as far east as RI. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Doesn't look like this stratus layer is budging anytime soon. 68/66 .29 last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Mesoscale Discussion 1371 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Areas affected...central into eastern NY...CT...RI...western and central MA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221611Z - 221815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storm coverage to increase with a corresponding uptick in intensity expected 1-4pm EDT (17-20 UTC). Widely scattered 50-65 mph gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary threat. Marginally severe hail (0.75 to 1.25 inches in diameter) may occur with the strongest cell. An upgrade to Slight Risk is forthcoming in the 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook. DISCUSSION...The 12 UTC (8am EDT) Albany, NY raob showed a very moist profile with PW 1.94 inches and weak lapse rates. Around 500 J/kg MLCAPE was noted in this observed sounding. Visible-satellite imagery shows an agitated cumulus field over central and eastern NY to the south of a few ongoing thunderstorms. A stratus deck is observed over the eastern half of MA into RI, and this stratus loosely corresponds with the placement of a west-northwest to east-southeast oriented stationary front. Additional heating since this morning's raob at Albany (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE likely at midday) has contributed to a destabilizing airmass from central NY east-southeast into CT to the south of the stationary front. Of particular note compared to yesterday, slightly stronger 1-6 km westerly flow (20-35 kt) is observed at the WSR-88D KENX VAD (Albany). This slight enhancement to westerly flow coupled with MLCAPE rising into the 1500-2000 J/kg range and near 2 inches PW, will probably favor a small cluster or two developing over the next several hours. As this thunderstorm cluster matures, it seems plausible a focused area for 50-65 mph gusts and potential widely scattered wind damage may occur from the Hudson Valley into MA/CT and perhaps as far east as RI. ..Smith/Hart.. 06/22/2024 Still cloudy here in E CT, only 78, think the main action could be further SW from here unless we see some clearing soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Just now, Modfan2 said: Still cloudy here in E CT, only 78, think the main action could be further SW from here unless we see some clearing soon Wow, we're up to 86 down here. Granted the sun was out in full force from 9 until noon (right when I was out weeding the garden). High clouds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 22 Author Share Posted June 22 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: And less dews. Guess that relentless heat and dew summer without breaks forecast is falling apart… only 26 short weeks left until our annual Christmas cutter. excited? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Just now, metagraphica said: Wow, we're up to 86 down here. Granted the sun was out in full force from 9 until noon (right when I was out weeding the garden). High clouds now. I am probably 25 miles to your NE and they are hanging in pretty good, suns trying to break through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 -1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Cool graphical look at how wild that 96/80 max/min was at BTV compared to the record books. Red dot is Wednesday’s temps compared to the data set going back to 1883. The purple dot next to it is 7/2/2018 when it was 97/80. Wild now…probably notsomuch going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 2 hours ago, dendrite said: It’s pretty impressive. We keep bumping the normals up every 10 years yet we still find a way to keep these AN streaks going. I think that's referred to in physical parlance as 'acceleration' LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 just kidding there but sort of true ... anyway, someone mentioned warm frontal thunder - looks like that's a good call along Rt 2 at present hour Was down just east of ORH at Indian Meadows between 9 and noon ... humid and cloudy at 68 with hints of mist. I get home to see that 20 minutes west it's 80s. This is a BD invasion into a heat wave pure and simple. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 KORE getting whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: just kidding there but sort of true ... anyway, someone mentioned warm frontal thunder - looks like that's a good call along Rt 2 at present hour Was down just east of ORH at Indian Meadows between 9 and noon ... humid and cloudy at 68 with hints of mist. I get home to see that 20 minutes west it's 80s. This is a BD invasion into a heat wave pure and simple. West of Ayer? 60s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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