CoastalWx Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 The front is through Boston now. Winds are north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Signal for heat return toward the end of the month is trying to decay. Not sure that means it's really going away. The telecon ( numeric ) spread are still modestly biasing the NAO positive, while the PNA is modestly negative, from the ggem, gefs and eps sources. The concert of those indexes correlates to some warmth penetration to mid latitudes over the eastern continent. It's just a subtly more modest now that previous trend. May not be significant enough to even read this but I've been finding over the last 5 years that whenever I see a very subtle variance, and figure it's too little to mean much it's ended up being the whole story with shockingly creepy high whatthefuckist correlation - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The front is through Boston now. Winds are north. ...I'm wondering if the gradient, albeit very weak, is N and the front is still not through. WPC 10:30z analysis still had it near PWM ... maybe it moved that far S but without a wind pulse that seems odd? It's probably a moot point on the coast anyway. Soon as it starts to hint at heating up in the interior Logan is going to be ENE at 15 flag snapping kts regardless of where the front is so what's the difference - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Running a couple degrees ahead of yeaterday, 82.2/73...off a low of 65 and a high of 95 yesterday. Hopefully some rain today, the ground is quite dry and most of the neighborhoods grass is cooked. My clover/grass combo is holding strong and looks the best, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ...I'm wondering if the gradient, albeit very weak, is N and the front is still not through. WPC 10:30z analysis still had it near PWM ... maybe it moved that far S but without a wind pulse that seems odd? It's probably a moot point on the coast anyway. Soon as it starts to hint at heating up in the interior Logan is going to be ENE as 15 flag snapping kts regardless of where the front is so what's the difference - The models showed a general backing of winds to the north and then north east. Wasn’t necessarily a defined fropa. not much of an air mass change behind it, but whatever it is is pushing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: The models showed a general backing of winds to the north and then north east. Wasn’t necessarily a defined fropa. not much of an air mass change behind it, but whatever it is is pushing south. Let's get the TCU tower machine revved up so cloud geeks can gawk ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Can we maybe call it a dewpoint front But yeah whatever the boundary is it isn't well defined and not particularly uniform. I wonder if it may even wash out some as we crank the mixing and heating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Signal for heat return toward the end of the month is trying to decay. Not sure that means it's really going away. The telecon ( numeric ) spread are still modestly biasing the NAO positive, while the PNA is modestly negative, from the ggem, gefs and eps sources. The concert of those indexes correlates to some warmth penetration to mid latitudes over the eastern continent. It's just a subtly more modest now that previous trend. May not be significant enough to even read this but I've been finding over the last 5 years that whenever I see a very subtle variance, and figure it's too little to mean much it's ended up being the whole story with shockingly creepy high whatthefuckist correlation - We may have a warm but comfortable week of the 4th. A dew down just in time for folks to actually enjoy the outdoors. Nice. 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: ...I'm wondering if the gradient, albeit very weak, is N and the front is still not through. WPC 10:30z analysis still had it near PWM ... maybe it moved that far S but without a wind pulse that seems odd? It's probably a moot point on the coast anyway. Soon as it starts to hint at heating up in the interior Logan is going to be ENE as 15 flag snapping kts regardless of where the front is so what's the difference - There does seem to be a deeper llvl push going through E NH/SW ME now with convection firing NE to SW as it wedges below this airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: There does seem to be a deeper llvl push going through E NH/SW ME now with convection firing NE to SW as it wedges below this airmass. yup...just going to post that COD high res clearly shows some sort of scouring coming into Essex CO down here now. It's probable that our built in non-linear forcing will convert the eastern end of whatever we want to call this boundary ... into a BD and that'll be the final nail in this heat waves coffin. Might even cool off down here over eastern Mass before MHT in the old wrap around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 I'm hoping at some point this summer we get a derecho to take down the trees in front of the house and some of the neighbors trees. The front yard faces west and I don't get good views because of the trees. Hard to take video of lightning and pics of shelfs with trees in the way. Take em down Mother Nature. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I'm hoping at some point this summer we get a derecho to take down the trees in front of the house and some of the neighbors trees. The front yard faces west and I don't get good views because of the trees. Hard to take video of lightning and pics of shelfs with trees in the way. Take em down Mother Nature. They'll probably end up through your living room picture windows (or worse) if they are "west" of you ..um, be careful what you wish for. what you said is akin to sitting out on a tree limb while you saw it off - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I'm hoping at some point this summer we get a derecho to take down the trees in front of the house and some of the neighbors trees. The front yard faces west and I don't get good views because of the trees. Hard to take video of lightning and pics of shelfs with trees in the way. Take em down Mother Nature. I remember you posting your dilapidated steps. If you’re taking down trees hopefully your house is stronger than the stairs or else you’ll have bigger problems than your view. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Just now, dendrite said: I remember you posting your dilapidated steps. If you’re taking down trees hopefully your house is stronger than the stairs or else you’ll have bigger problems than your view. lol I finally did get around to painting the steps haha. But in all seriousness...I do get nervous with the trees. This is a older house and I think needs a bit of work but we plan on moving (hopefully soon). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 79.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Here's my excruciatingly nerdy assessment ... The pressure pattern at the larger synoptic scale observation shows that the high pressure over western and lower Ontario, behind the front, is actually the same as the pressure layout SE of the front associated with the WAR aspect. Normally that's consistent with a stationary front. However, there is a small gap where the boundary is geometrically biased N-W of that axis in between - hence the apparent N wind prior to the frontal arrival. This gap will likely be were the front lays in and goes stationary... Prior to that happening, there is a local pressure perturbation effect as Brian pointed out with the convection over lower Maine... it's giving the boundary a kind of meso scale momentum down the SE NH into NE Mass. It just means for eastern zones, the front arrives several hours earlier. By this evening, the front will likely be somewhere near the Pike... or whatever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 I have to teach my 3 hour class in Worcester today so I did a brisk 3 mile walk. Still hot and humid but obviously it won’t reach 90 today. I came home drenched in sweat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 I’m am going on record. This wil be top 2 hottest summer at all New England sites. Bookmark it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: I have to teach my 3 hour class in Worcester today so I did a brisk 3 mile walk. Still hot and humid but obviously it won’t reach 90 today. I came home drenched in sweat. Yoga? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m am going on record. This wil be top 2 hottest summer at all New England sites. Bookmark it I don’t think it’s much of a stretch. I’d bet top 5 is likely most years now. At least through high minimums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’m am going on record. This wil be top 2 hottest summer at all New England sites. Bookmark it So you’re saying it’s gonna cool down for the rest of the summer after this week? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I don’t think it’s much of a stretch. I’d bet top 5 is likely most years now. At least through high minimums. Definitely, if we end up with a llvl flow which is predominately southwesterly (which of course is quite common for us during the Summer) we are going to be in for stretches of oppressively high dewpoints. I would have to think that perhaps the largest contributor to the high dews we're seeing right now is due to how historically warm the Gulf of Mexico is for this early in the season. The only true relief we're going to get from the oppressive dews is just going to be from fronts moving through and who knows how the pattern sets up moving forward. We could very easily find ourselves in a pattern where FROPAs are few and far between and very weak. So dews go from 70's to upper 60's lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 89.8/76.5...feels like 102 at 10:37 am. That is pretty impressive for here.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Definitely, if we end up with a llvl flow which is predominately southwesterly (which of course is quite common for us during the Summer) we are going to be in for stretches of oppressively high dewpoints. I would have to think that perhaps the largest contributor to the high dews we're seeing right now is due to how historically warm the Gulf of Mexico is for this early in the season. The only true relief we're going to get from the oppressive dews is just going to be from fronts moving through and who knows how the pattern sets up moving forward. We could very easily find ourselves in a pattern where FROPAs are few and far between and very weak. So dews go from 70's to upper 60's lol. Was April the only month sort of like normal in the past like 8 months? Just the baseline right now seems so high. Not sure what needs to change but I’d put my money on high minimums at the very least each summer now… those overnight temps really pump the departures each summer now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Was April the only month sort of like normal in the past like 8 months? Just the baseline right now seems so high. Not sure what needs to change but I’d put my money on high minimums at the very least each summer now… those overnight temps really pump the departures each summer now. Yeah it's pretty wild how much the high minimums are really pumping up the departures. I wish this got referenced more and was a focus locally when you hear climate change being discussed but for some reason it is totally overlooked. In terms of extreme heat (high temperatures) you have to think at some point we may experience that. However, because where we are located geographically compared to the westerlies, it would take one heck of a upper/lower level pattern for it to happen. There are just so many factors which influence the moderation of airmasses as they move across the country. It's like with Elevated Mixed-Layers. They're so difficult to maintain integrity into our region because there is just so much room for airmass moderation and for the integrity of EMLs to become compromised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 Backdoor front through here. Marked wind shift and pickup. Temp is falling 71.7F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 I am really curious to see what happens from the Mass Pike into northern Connecticut later this afternoon. Mesoanalysis is showing 25-30 knots of bulk shear with 30-35+ knots across southeast New Hampshire (right around the vicinity of the boundary). Now mlvl lapse rates aren't as good today and there is capping to contend with but there could be numerous storms along that boundary today. Flash flooding risk may be a bit elevated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 50 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I don’t think it’s much of a stretch. I’d bet top 5 is likely most years now. At least through high minimums. Heh ... he thought he was lobbying a shock jock statement at us, but not being connected to reality so much of the time as he is ( by choice it seems...) left him kind of short on the fact that ... yeah, we're doing that anyway. hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 28 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Was April the only month sort of like normal in the past like 8 months? Just the baseline right now seems so high. Not sure what needs to change but I’d put my money on high minimums at the very least each summer now… those overnight temps really pump the departures each summer now. Not quite 8 - November was 1.6° BN here. 89/66 yesterday, just missing what would've been the first consecutive 90s since September 2002. After 3 near misses, finally got a quiet 0.18" shower 7-7:30 last evening, about 1/4 of what the garden needs. Maybe Sunday-Monday can provide the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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