Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 There's an element of discovery in every entry into a new pattern - which this is... The heights are evolving faster than the surface is catching up. If you look at 12z's initialization on this NAM run ( not saying anything that happens afterword has much value one way or the other ...) we are already over 582+ heights within a recognizable heat -related configuration. I've seen it be 98 like that. Again, the 850 mb is missing from this - or is yet to catch up... etc. Yet it's 75 at 11. Point is, this is coming in like a wall. Bursting forth is probably apropos. I don't think today, lagging as it appears to be, will be of much useful indication or offer much value in the area of "correcting" based on now-cast/present behavior biasing. I was noticing that the 850 mb rise from 13C at dawn to 16 or so by 21 Z... continuing to rise toward 18 or 19 Tues at dawm. We may even have a late high temperature today. Like we creep to 84 not realized until 5:30 pm ...then the lows tonight stay relatively elevated. It may be more like how tomorrow's behavior goes; telling us something about Wed. There's going to be some cumulative effect thereafter. Like the lows Wed night should be higher than the lows Tues night, even though by then...both overnights will be embedded in the same synoptic circumstance. That's just the battery charging from two days -worth of insolation vs just one... Thursday night could be quite impressive for that matter. We'll have to see how the DP advection fits into that. If we get a metalic 74DP in place under a 95 or 96 afternoon, that night may stay 80 in urban layouts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Good post, Tip. It is interesting, it's 68F here at 11am and just doesn't have that feel of big heat coming. But tomorrow's high is 94F from NWS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was just looking around at obs and actual sfc features ( ha) I'm wondering if the NAM isn't as bad as we've been thinking. That warm front has 73 to 76 F DPs west, low to mid 60s east. We may see some drying from DVM associated with rising pig ridge heights... also if the wind can bend into more of a WNW direction..etc, but if the 850s mb is "only" 20C and we turn the air into a theta-e miasma, that would stymie down a Euro look. Actually, the MET has 97 at ASH on Wed so - Euro had Tds of 70-71 over a smaller region that is 72+ right now, but it really mixes it out in the midwest by 18z. So let’s see if that happens over the next few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 37 minutes ago, weathafella said: Temperature notwithstanding imagine not appreciating the long daylight we have now? It’s fleeting but I wish it weren’t. Ironically I also appreciate the nadir 6 months from now. I actually enjoy an evening with temperatures in the mid 70's after sunset. I hated it when we lived in the city but it's more pleasant in the country. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 2 hours ago, dendrite said: CON has never gotten over 102° so I think we’d need more than 20-21C at H85 to pull it off unless we can line up the state police chopper’s exhaust right on the ASOS before it takes off to pull over more Massholes. Don't give them any ideas about a chopper, the Cessna they fly in loops over my house for traffic patrol is loud enough already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Hey Brian, looks like some mixing has commenced as DPS are more 70 to 73 across the southern Lakes and IN/OH. The NAM appears reasonable relative to hr 12z fwiw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 00z euro valid 18z and the current 17z dews. It’s going to have to mix out a lot to match those euro numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 We'll likely recess this positive anomaly we're in ( the models appear too aggressive with fronts over the weekend but MCS activity may also get involved/obfuscate matters...) but the general -PNA scaffold remains in place, so this kind of signal in the operational GFS' extended has more relative merit. Feel higher than model climate confidence for eastern ridging - obviously less so for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Some cloud cover kind of capping temperatures here this afternoon. 78° in Greenfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Lot of mix 60s DPs showing up out in the IN/OH region now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 heh. I look at this as 68-72 and the euro bring too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Contrary to what many might expect it's actually pretty uncommon to get high-end heat in June, outside of maybe the last week of the month. Forget about triple digits, it's hard to even reach the upper 90s in June. The last high-end June heat wave that I can recall was June 8-10, 2008. PVD reached 97F on 6/9; just 1F shy of the all time monthly record. That was in early June which made it even more unusual. I remember they had an early dismissal from schools that day for the kids in many areas which was pretty unprecedented. I would take the under on getting anything past like 95 or 96 for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: heh. I look at this as 68-72 and the euro bring too dry. Leave it up to y'all to quibble but NWS is giving us this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Still looks mostly 68-72 to me with outliers either way? Anyway, 12z euro brought the dews up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Still looks mostly 68-72 to me with outliers either way? Anyway, 12z euro brought the dews up And now they're not that high. LOL ... I mean eastern IN and western OH is exactly where it's dried. weird It's probably not significant to the big picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Turning into a refreshing looking front on Saturday ... nice. I was thinking based on the mid level configuration the models were too aggressive with the inevitable boundary but the Euro's got the back door look at 500 mb now. so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Still looks mostly 68-72 to me with outliers either way? Anyway, 12z euro brought the dews up too bad corn isn't in season yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 3 hours ago, weathafella said: Temperature notwithstanding imagine not appreciating the long daylight we have now? It’s fleeting but I wish it weren’t. Ironically I also appreciate the nadir 6 months from now. I’m the same way. The 9:45 sunsets in Marquette, MI we’re awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: And now they're not that high. LOL ... I mean eastern IN and western OH is exactly where it's dried. weird It's probably not significant to the big picture. Maybe not. Euro looks a couple F cooler Wed. More in line with the gfs. I think it’s lining up to be a 96-98 deal for most in the MRV. Maybe CT-east deals with some LIS/Atl taint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 minute ago, mreaves said: I’m the same way. The 9:45 sunsets in Marquette, MI we’re awesome. It's like that in Kalamazoo, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Just now, dendrite said: Maybe not. Euro looks a couple F cooler Wed. More in line with the gfs. I think it’s lining up to be a 96-98 deal for most in the MRV. Maybe CT-east deals with some LIS/Atl taint. Agreed. Been thinking 97er heh. I think the heights are left sort of gutted. this whole situation would soar/perform better with that 850 mb/sw injection. The pattern isn't over though from what I'm looking at. Looks like the -PNA may send another ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 There is no break this weekend 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There is no break this weekend Yeah, no one in their right mind would see this layout as being different ... 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Some schools (of the few still open) are cancelling on Thursday. No school Wednesday due to the federal holiday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, no one in their right mind would see this layout as being different ... This has always been about the dews. Some got obsessed with 100’s.There is no fresh dry cool airmass is the point As the upper level ridge is suppressed to our south...we do expect the excessive heat to break but it still will be humid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Turning into a refreshing looking front on Saturday ... nice. I was thinking based on the mid level configuration the models were too aggressive with the inevitable boundary but the Euro's got the back door look at 500 mb now. so we'll see. That was my thought originally too…that it’d take until Sunday or Monday for the break to occur, but I suppose we’re trending toward a shorter technical heat wave for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 At 3 PM obs: BAF 83, CEF 83, HFD 84, BDL 89 BDL definitely gets an * during this heat wave. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 It's also not a classic tropical airmass. Look at the modeled TDs and lower theta-e at 925 come into the southeast US and then up the coast. It's not a classic sub-tropical feed as we know it. That may come next week. Been thinking 94-97 for awhile, but looks like some 98s or so for sure coming up. Maybe dews 65-70 overall at peak? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's also not a classic tropical airmass. Look at the modeled TDs and lower theta-e at 925 come into the southeast US and then up the coast. It's not a classic sub-tropical feed as we know it. That may come next week. Been thinking 94-97 for awhile, but looks like some 98s or so for sure coming up. Maybe dews 65-70 overall at peak? I was thinking something similar to myself earlier. I don't know if we'll really see any oppressive dewpoints with this. Now I don't think dews will be low enough or mix low enough for widespread 100+. The plume of richest theta-e air and llvl moisture will be off to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Next week we get round 2 . Each one dewier right into Sept 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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