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June 2024 Obs/Disco


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21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This doesn’t look that impressive down here in southern CT.  Seems like low 90s for maxes with moderate humidity which happens every year. Longevity might be what makes this a bit more memorable. 

Yea. No one will remember summeh details though. Unless there is a cane, it’s summeh…it gets hot. 

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MOS is mostly 96-98 in the S NH hot spots…CON/MHT/ASH. If you add 2-3° to the 18z valid NAM temps you get similar. Haven’t seen euro max 2m maps yetz, but based on 18z temps I assume they’re still hitting 101-103 which I’m still tossing. Maybe one of the ASOSes gets a little heat spike one day and ends up 100-101 but I don’t think we’re seeing widespread 100s. 

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. No one will remember summeh details though. Unless there is a cane, it’s summeh…it gets hot. 

The media will run wild with it though..."the heat dome of death" is coming!

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The media will run wild with it though..."the heat dome of death" is coming!

 

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The media will run wild with it though..."the heat dome of death" is coming!

..it's already begun...

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The media will run wild with it though..."the heat dome of death" is coming!

ehhh as much as I hate how the media hypes up weather I don't mind the big hype with the heat/humidity. Sure it's not that big of a deal to some but it is extremely dangerous. Unfortunately, there are idiots who leave kids or pets in the car and not realizing how extreme temperatures can get inside vehicles, paved surfaces are very dangerous for dog walking, and of course you have the vulnerability to the elderly, homeless population, and children. 

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9 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, I'm not sure anyone in SNE breaks records.  Maybe CNE or NNE?  I don't love high heat but I understand the "might as well break a record".   I would be right there rooting for records but Greenfield has a big music festival in town this weekend that we are involved in. Any moderation would be welcome.  At the end of the day I've survived mid 90's in the past and will do so again this week.

That's one small step for man. One giant leap for mankind.” 

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

MOS is mostly 96-98 in the S NH hot spots…CON/MHT/ASH. If you add 2-3° to the 18z valid NAM temps you get similar. Haven’t seen euro max 2m maps yetz, but based on 18z temps I assume they’re still hitting 101-103 which I’m still tossing. Maybe one of the ASOSes gets a little heat spike one day and ends up 100-101 but I don’t think we’re seeing widespread 100s. 

Just checked the NBM percentiles for CON and you have to get into the 99th percentile to get highs in the 101-103 range. So unless we get the big mixing widespread 101-103 does seem difficult to obtain. Also, not even factoring in any potential high clouds...haven't looked into this potential yet.

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CON has never gotten over 102° so I think we’d need more than 20-21C at H85 to pull it off unless we can line up the state police chopper’s exhaust right on the ASOS before it takes off to pull over more Massholes.

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We don't have the "edgy" 850 mb thermal inject into the ridge, that's why.

That's been a concern from the get go in the modeling.  The Euro did offer 22.5 on a couple of runs a couple of days ago, but has since been shirking 1/4 degree per run and as of last night's 00z it seems to have come back to the pack ... capping 20 or 21 C...  That's not outrageous.

It's perhaps unusual in and of its self to have non hydrostatic heights so high - I pointed this out that it's possibly historic for that metric alone, though quite unknowable.

We've observed 24C waft over the region over the decades at one time or another, and every time that has happened, something interfered from fuller realization.  In 2018, we had a magnificent ridge expression and only manufactured 20 or 21C in the 850s, too.   The single day of near or at outrageous heat in 2011 July took place at < 590 non hydrostatic heights.  Heights alone are not enough - we need the thermal seeding.

Not that we're complaining.. heh.  I mean, we really don't want 24 C at 850 mb injected into a 596+ dm heights, then worked over for 3 consecutive days of solar leading to aggregation. 

Think we can drain the concern for synergistic event at this point and go with high end seasonal heat wave. 

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

CON has never gotten over 102° so I think we’d need more than 20-21C at H85 to pull it off unless we can line up the state police chopper’s exhaust right on the ASOS before it takes off to pull over more Massholes.

Massholes huh? Live free and sweat this week. 

 

Screenshot_20240617_094507_Chrome.jpg

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25 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Typically New Mehgland, nothing extreme ever happens anymore. Only in days of yore.

Ha ha...  are you looking for the excitement and dystopia fun over the headline status?  

We have better luck with blizzards - although ... yeah, those seem to be a dying art form around here because you know,  climate change is not real ( while makin' 'merica great agin' )   lol

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Yeah I remember having this discussion several months ago about how it seems like our record high maxes are moderating. Not sure if it's just a cycle that we are in or if it's related to climate change. Seems like more moisture in the air and higher dews leading to more records mins and fewer record maxes. There are many other factors of course but that is a big part of it.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

As the days shorten, the heat worsens.

Imagine having hours and hours of evening sunshine and warm temps outside and longing for the months long soul crushing period of chasing phantom snowstorms and having just enough cold for the mix line to reach Portland rather than Quebec City.

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Imagine having hours and hours of evening sunshine and warm temps outside and longing for the months long soul crushing period of chasing phantom snowstorms and having just enough cold for the mix line to reach Portland rather than Quebec City.

I've had it with the last two winter seasons. Greta won. Enjoy the heat folks.

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

May see some thunderstorms develop across the higher terrain tomorrow, though perhaps some better coverage across NY/PA. Both the NAM/GFS have some vorticity across Michigan which all so ever slowly progresses east and doesn't even move across our region until tomorrow afternoon. 

Absorbed in the +D(hgt) suppression. 

Just my take ...

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We'll get a snow chance between the 20th of October and December 3rd... lubing up the nostalgia no doubt.  But ultimately a time span featuring whiplash variance between 'air smells like snow' (and actually can if there's a synoptic injection) then back to 83 F near or at records...  

Then, as the winter gradient ( hemispheric scale ) really sets up ...this will expose the butt banging that's become mid latitude winters ... dominated by strong mid level latitude height compression --> velocity saturation, which tends to limit blocking ...   43F winter results.  

Sometime in February, we start backing out of that regime by passing back through that autumn variance.  This will last through April ... a time in which we'll have a couple of historic warm bursts chances, interceded by late season blocking that gives hope for an exit blue consolation storm.

----

That above characterization appears to have become the predominating Oct-Apr signal, regardless of any ENSO this or solar that, or blah blah-blah blah-blah ism we can articulately muster to explain why that winter will actually be winter.

Because climate change is forcing this new paradigm (what ever it is...), subsuming the Rockwellian impression of what seasons mean.

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11 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

If it's going to be HHH I'd rather set records. We've done mid 90s before, no big deal. I remember golfing in 98 with high humidity a couple years ago, got one of those towels you dip in water and wrap it around your neck, worked well.

Reminds me of building a picnic table with my SIL (and new father, or why we were in SC) at 99°.  Of course, we were always within 10 feet of AC, and could pop in for some iced tea and cooling off.
 

A very unique and special summer is set to begin tomorrow, One none of us have evert experienced. Be ready, be excited, be nervous. 

You're too young to remember 1966, the hottest (until topped in 2010) and driest met summer in NYC's 155 years of record.  Four days of 100+, only 1953 had done that and none since.  LGA reached 107 on July 3, NYC a modest 103.  The long holiday weekend highs were 100/103/98.  (BDL cooled down to 90 on the 4th after 99/102 on 2-3.)

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This doesn’t look that impressive down here in southern CT.  Seems like low 90s for maxes with moderate humidity which happens every year. Longevity might be what makes this a bit more memorable. 

I looked at the 6z NAMs and they had like low to mid 80s as the max down here on both Tuesday and Wednesday lol

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

MOS is mostly 96-98 in the S NH hot spots…CON/MHT/ASH. If you add 2-3° to the 18z valid NAM temps you get similar. Haven’t seen euro max 2m maps yetz, but based on 18z temps I assume they’re still hitting 101-103 which I’m still tossing. Maybe one of the ASOSes gets a little heat spike one day and ends up 100-101 but I don’t think we’re seeing widespread 100s. 

I was just looking around at obs and actual sfc features ( ha)

I'm wondering if the NAM isn't as bad as we've been thinking.

image.png.e020f487de06242e7cb617a15bd0ed8f.png

 

That warm front has 73 to 76 F DPs west, low to mid 60s east.  We may see some drying from DVM associated with rising pig ridge heights... also if the wind can bend into more of a WNW direction..etc, but if the 850s mb is "only" 20C and we turn the air into a theta-e miasma, that would stymie down a Euro look.

Actually, the MET has 97 at ASH on Wed so -

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Temperature notwithstanding imagine not appreciating the long daylight we have now?  It’s fleeting but I wish it weren’t.  Ironically I also appreciate the nadir 6 months from now.

Yeah it’s one of those things where I truly love the balance the seasons provide. Climate stuff aside we still have four distinct times of year and of course daylight length ebbs and flows. It’s ok to appreciate the moment you’re in. 

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just looking around at obs and actual sfc features ( ha)

I'm wondering if the NAM isn't as bad as we've been thinking.

image.png.e020f487de06242e7cb617a15bd0ed8f.png

 

That warm front has 73 to 76 F DPs west, low to mid 60s east.  We may see some drying from DVM associated with rising pig ridge heights... also if the wind can bend into more of a WNW direction..etc, but if the 850s mb is "only" 20C and we turn the air into a theta-e miasma.

Actually, the MET has 97 at ASH on Wed so -

What do you make of this discrepancy?

Do you think temperatures over or underperforming today speak to the rest of the week as the ridge continues to build? Caveats about clouds, etc., aside?

 

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5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Temperature notwithstanding imagine not appreciating the long daylight we have now?  It’s fleeting but I wish it weren’t.  Ironically I also appreciate the nadir 6 months from now.

This may be earn me some googly eye emoji's but ... you know, when it's 52 F on Sunday mornings with no snow on the ground and not particularly muddy, that is a terrific time to engage in outdoor sports.   It's not hot. It's not cold. I've grown to appreciate the opportunities outside of home, too.

Doesn't mean I don't want big winter expression.  I still dork out for that too.  But just sayn' ... activities like disc golf and tennis me and crew like to do doesn't get shut down that way.

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