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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Think most of us in SNE are through Friday. Maybe a front breaks that Friday aftn.

Yeah don't see much going on this week. Maybe some high terrain showers/thunder. Hoping the front Friday can give us a better chance for thunderstorms though we could have some capping issues given how warm it is at H7 but maybe forcing will be enough to break it.

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7 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

No AC gang here. Rise up to the challenge! Strategic window work! Get them double hungs up and in position overnight! Close at peak indoor coolness!

I’ll install tonight when we get back from The Cape.   It’s two window units and a portable, it really only takes me about 20 minutes. Lol.  
Every year I just wait until there is an extended period of upper 80s or 90s in the forecast.   

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17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yeah don't see much going on this week. Maybe some high terrain showers/thunder. Hoping the front Friday can give us a better chance for thunderstorms though we could have some capping issues given how warm it is at H7 but maybe forcing will be enough to break it.

It looks pretty dry for eastern areas even beyond next weekend.  Convection rains will probably help WNE.  

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It looks pretty dry for eastern areas even beyond next weekend.  Convection rains will probably help WNE.  

Looks like for the foreseeable future any precipitation chances are either going to be tied into pop-up showers or thunderstorms or with any approaching cold fronts. Obviously with this some are going to win and some will lose. 

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1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

pretty rare for KCON if that were to come to fruition.

Not happening. 1911 is the only triple digit wave. It may be close a couple of days, but I’ll take the under on them hitting 100°. EC and EPS are thermodynamically funky.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Not happening. 1911 is the only triple digit wave. It may be close a couple of days, but I’ll take the under on them hitting 100°. EC and EPS are thermodynamically funky.

I’m being totally hyperbolic, and mostly sarcastic, but it’s a shame that the Euro model of today borders on worthless in advance of some high impact events. 

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Quick thought on this ...  July 2010 saw a DPs dry out from  somewhere around 70 all the way to the lower 50s between FIT-BED during the course of that afternoon where temperatures were near or over 100 before and after the DP advection took place.  There's obviously other moving parts in the dynamics of the thing... I'm just pointing out that general rules can and do have exceptions yadda yadda

What's the wind direction ?  Curious.  If this is WNW d-slope flow, we may see the in situ "dry line" advection take place.

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Euro run appears to be the warmest of guidance 00z ( 12's are arriving now...)  - I'm sure other's have noted this.. 

I've been off doing other stuff this weekend , but ... some other non traditional model types like the ICON and NOGAPS ...etc, have closed off the 600 dm heights briefly along the upper M/A on some recent cycles.  The GFS at 06z also did so for the first time.

There are two aspects to me in this ... whether we reach historic 2-meter verifications, those heights alone appear to noteworthy worthy of researching whether that specific metric approaches historic.  Also, there is a chance that the multi day "integrated heat" may also be a cumulative type of record too.  Those days are also not 'nicking' or barely making it into the VIP lounge... There'll likely be convincing solid blocks of time in consecutive hours where we're bangin HI's in a near or over dangerous range.

Heat is a very fragile aspect.  4 out of 5 parameters may enter a period supporting 105 F but the 1 off put limits to 94.  The trouble is ... at the ceiling temperatures, the only permutation there can be is less - that makes it hard ( or should ) for records to be broken, or just to push higher at all.   97/67 is a HI of 101 to 103.   

 

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I'm also still at least a little concerned about the "synergistic" aspect.   Those ilk of heat explosions that have been going off around the world with increased frequency over the last 20 years are typically preceded by environmental modeling doing similar super-imposing (constructively interfering ) larger scale parametrics .    

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BOX is all in on the Heat this week

 

 

All the model guidance continues to be very consistent and in
excellent agreement on dangerous heat and humidity beginning
Tuesday...peaking in the Wed through Fri time frame. The models
indicate 500 mb height fields approaching 600 dm...which is rarely
seen in our region and a strong signal for the potential of record
heat. This is also supported by the NAEFS & EPS Situational
Awareness tables...which indicates several parameters outside the
models climatology. That is another strong signal for the potential
of a rare/highly unusual weather event...in this case being heat and
humidity.

The ensemble guidance supports near record highs well into the
90s...perhaps touching 100 degrees in spots. If that were to
occur...we would challenge all time record highs for the month of
June in spots. The only possible relief would be if localized sea
breeze are able to develop along portions of the very immediate
coast. Either way...the main story will be several days of dangerous
heat & humidity. Afternoon Heat Indices will reach into the 95 to
105+ degree range. There will not be much relief at night with heat
indices only dropping into the 70s.
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8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree with Brian that those very low dews and very high temps looks sus.

Contrasting ...the NAM.  

It has 96/73 at Lawrence between 18z and 21z on Wed afternoon , and that's supposedly the best mixed(ing) interval of the diurnal cycle.  

HFD is 93/72 ... 

How about the 2am temps along the Maine coastal plain Wednesday night?  85 at 2am NW of PWM is probably seldom seen up there I'm inclined to guess  heh

Anyway, in fairness, the NAM is typically under-mixed.  Not sure it's the right model for seeing this sort of thing. 

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7 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

No AC gang here. Rise up to the challenge! Strategic window work! Get them double hungs up and in position overnight! Close at peak indoor coolness!

Our below ground basement is always very cool.  We have a large floor vent leading up to our living room.  I positioned a fan near the cellar floor and cold air blows up and does a good job of keeping the house cooler.  It works best this time of year as the soils warm up later in the season thus not as much as a temperature difference.

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28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

How about the 2am temps along the Maine coastal plain Wednesday night?  85 at 2am NW of PWM is probably seldom seen up there I'm inclined to guess  heh

 

Wonder if BTV sees a minimum above 80F during this.

That airport just does not cool off at all in these heaters.  I’ll bet there’s some 80s after midnight at BTV.

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8 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

No AC gang here. Rise up to the challenge! Strategic window work! Get them double hungs up and in position overnight! Close at peak indoor coolness!

MIL arrives Wed. We’re going to have to bite the bullet and install.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Doubt it. Wed night may be the best chance.

Yeah they need a good nocturnal southerly jet to stay well mixed all night.  Usually ends up dipping into the mid/upper 70s.

I do feel like they had an 80+ min in recent years, but then the temp dropped under 80F by midnight the next night.

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