Damage In Tolland Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: GFS is an absolute furnace next week. Special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 13 Author Share Posted June 13 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can see it coming even this far out. A lot of posters here will lose power for a few day period during hottest period of lives. Maximized w/ torch sun angle 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Just seeing both ensembles with a mean 597 overhead in June is incredible. How likely would it be that the ridge is significantly weaker in amplitude? It’s full frontal female nudity .. all of it just swinging in our faces . Shake shake.. bounce bounce 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted June 13 Share Posted June 13 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You can see it coming even this far out. A lot of posters here will lose power for a few day period during hottest period of lives. wat 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 68° on the water in Falmouth. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Every time I check in on the next model iteration the signaled heat gets more extreme. It’s interesting that this 18z operational GFS is both increased the ridge vertical and horizontal amplitude but is actually less height (vertically) than the GEFS mean, which for the first time is closing off five 596 dam between NJ and Boston. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 earliest a winter storm watch was ever issued? 4 days ahead National Weather Service Great Falls MT 159 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 MTZ322-327-330-141200- /O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0015.240618T0000Z-240619T0600Z/ Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County- Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains- Including the following locations: Wisdom, Clancy, Montana City, Big Hole Pass, Big Sky, Targhee Pass, Elk Park Pass, Dewey, Wickes, Wise River, Boulder, Raynolds Pass, Chief Joseph Pass, Homestake Pass, Corbin, and West Yellowstone 159 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: 68° on the water in Falmouth. Man .. that hair gonna be brutally hot next week and rest of summer . Good luck bro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s full frontal female nudity .. all of it just swinging in our faces . Shake shake.. bounce bounce Someone got into the liquor cabinet. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 I’m seeing multiple forecasts of 95-97 here for a couple of days next week. Those are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man .. that hair gonna be brutally hot next week and rest of summer . Good luck bro Looks like a cool down after a few days of high heat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 12 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Looks like a cool down after a few days of high heat. I mean it will be a cool down from 100s, but still above average. I suppose once you have been that warm mid 80s will feel chilly. My AC tuneup was going to be tomorrow, they rescheduled for the 22nd because of the number of emergency calls they are already getting as people turn on their ac for the first time this season. I am hoping mine is fine, but I am worried the refrigerant might be a bit low (hopefully no coil leak). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 looks like the 2nd window unit gets installed this weekend. also gonna make ice blocks in my freezer before the grid goes down 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 18 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Looks like a cool down after a few days of high heat. Brief mild up. The roosters will be crowing again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 23 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Looks like a cool down after a few days of high heat. Where?I mean sure going from 101/71to 93/ 76 is a cool down. But man.. this summer is shaking up to be one for the heater records for all of us . Even I may be ready for fall after 3 months of it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Man .. that hair gonna be brutally hot next week and rest of summer . Good luck bro Don’t you worry, I will go samurai man bun! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 I’m still punting those 2m temps. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 53 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: earliest a winter storm watch was ever issued? 4 days ahead National Weather Service Great Falls MT 159 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 MTZ322-327-330-141200- /O.NEW.KTFX.WS.A.0015.240618T0000Z-240619T0600Z/ Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Northwest Beaverhead County- Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains- Including the following locations: Wisdom, Clancy, Montana City, Big Hole Pass, Big Sky, Targhee Pass, Elk Park Pass, Dewey, Wickes, Wise River, Boulder, Raynolds Pass, Chief Joseph Pass, Homestake Pass, Corbin, and West Yellowstone 159 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. Doesn’t the season end 6/30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Doesn’t the season end 6/30? I think he meant earliest in terms of lead time? But I think I've seen some watches hoisted in the Sierra's like 5 days out before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Wondering how much the seabreeze will affect temps down here next week? Northern CT into Mass has the best shot of higher temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think he meant earliest in terms of lead time? But I think I've seen some watches hoisted in the Sierra's like 5 days out before. Yeah that must be it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 28 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m still punting those 2m temps. 105 here is an easy punt a week out but it’s becoming harder to imagine how we escape something high end. 97/71 for 2-3 maybe 4 days is still big time. (As you mentioned earlier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 48 minutes ago, kdxken said: Brief mild up. The roosters will be crowing again soon. Roosters are gone in this new climo regime. They’ll be back in time for winter. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 105 here is an easy punt a week out but it’s becoming harder to imagine how we escape something high end. 97/71 for 2-3 maybe 4 days is still big time. (As you mentioned earlier) I’m not sure we get 97/71 without an assist in the 850 mill bar Only the euro has been willing to cast a plume exceeding 22°C… I’d like to see other models join in. Heights are high ( in fact, that may be historic in and of itself) , but we need to see the lower tropospheric parameters more convincing. That may yet be the destination … we’ll have a better handle probably starting tomorrow - 95/71 is a HI if 103 anyway. it should be noted that with heights approaching 600 dam … the the ceiling is exceptionally high. The concern should the ‘unknown length’ of the correction vector … which is pointed higher 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: I mean it will be a cool down from 100s, but still above average. I suppose once you have been that warm mid 80s will feel chilly. My AC tuneup was going to be tomorrow, they rescheduled for the 22nd because of the number of emergency calls they are already getting as people turn on their ac for the first time this season. I am hoping mine is fine, but I am worried the refrigerant might be a bit low (hopefully no coil leak). Same thing happened to me twice they rescheduled due to emergencies, but they keep taking $50 off for the inconvenience, they keep doing it I'll get it done for free. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 50 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think he meant earliest in terms of lead time? But I think I've seen some watches hoisted in the Sierra's like 5 days out before. I wonder if the time of year and amount of outdoor tourists there are factor into the lead time. West Yellowstone and Big Sky areas... that place is teeming with people in the "warm" season. And most of them are not prepared for a wet snow... from those camping, hiking, etc. Even some road impacts in the higher areas? I guess hundreds of thousands of people visit Yellowstone each month from June-Aug. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Roosters are gone in this new climo regime. They’ll be back in time for winter. You should see my bamboo in the run this year after not going below 0F. It looks like Shanghai in there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I’m not sure we get 97/71 without an assist in the 850 mill bar Only the euro has been willing to cast a plume exceeding 22°C… I’d like to see other models join in. Heights are high ( in fact, that may be historic in and of itself) , but we need to see the lower tropospheric parameters more convincing. That may yet be the destination … we’ll have a better handle probably starting tomorrow - 95/71 is a HI if 103 anyway. it should be noted that with heights approaching 600 dam … the the ceiling is exceptionally high. The concern should the ‘unknown length’ of the correction vector … which is pointed higher That’s helpful, thanks. So basically: 1) It’s pretty clear that if this verified or even if we saw heights of 594-597dm we’d have a significant heat wave (while the heights are historic to near historic in their own right) but by itself it’s not enough for a truly historic 3 day 99+ high heat wave because as you said the other day it’d take time for the heights to expand and fill (?). That results in a sort of step ladder increase in daily highs so rather than 99, 99, 101 it’s more 92, 93, 95. 2) For historic potential, we really should see anomalously warm 850mb temperatures eject from the SW to our area. So far, guidance has been lukewarm on balance about it. This is a snapshot of Wednesday. Obviously the nuclear 850s in the desert SW would moderate our way but we need ~22-25°C for the big temps and can get them on our historic days. 3) For now some of the guidance ejects the highest 850s to our west, but the euro does try to pull in some higher numbers later in the week. 4) GFS still brings big heat on lower 850s, but that’s more dubious as over mixing could limit true high temperature potential. Is that the gist of it? Do we also care about 700 or 925mb temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 14 Author Share Posted June 14 95-102, it is what it is""" congrats all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Feels like summer tonight but still fairly comfortable. Next week I go from 2 to 3 daily showers. We’ve arrived. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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