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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Again, I post this tirade every year, but why are people such fans of high dewpoints?

Sunny with highs in the 70’s and 80’s with dew points in the 50’s is what I would consider perfect summer weather, even for this winter fan. It’s good for just about every outdoor activity imagined.

Yet I don’t get the rooting for 85/72? Who wants to be sweaty and uncomfortable? Do you enjoy the crotch rots and the swamp ass? Are you a nudist that doesn’t want to catch a chill at the twigs and berries solstice festival?

I understand enjoyment of almost all kinds of weather except for the ones that like high temps and dew points. They must have stock in deodorant companies and air conditioner manufacturers. 
 

That is all.

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15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wind 7mph…horrible.

Gotta get near the shore down there to make it enjoyable. SRQ to MKY is where it’s at.

Tolerable. Usually when I go to Florida I visit friends in Tampa right on the Bay. Way better than Orlando but I still wouldn't want to be there for the summer.

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31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

91/80 for APF at 18z. WSW 10G20mph.

Yes please.

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I feel like a breeze is a game-changer at those temps/dews.  Like stagnant air at those levels, god that must be awful.  Which sort of makes me curious to experience it at the same time, ha.

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Over 2” in the past 3 days… occasional showers over a long duration.

The vegetation has loved it.  Still that light green of new/young growth in the trees.

Moody day in the mountains.

IMG_9844.jpeg.3812098a8b0ad68029e66045c4c4d360.jpeg

Multiple days of cyclonic NW flow.  This is what that looks like when it’s cold aloft and there’s topography as a barrier.

IMG_9851.jpeg.08e46d4b9f1c71095dccd7ae43e75ec5.jpeg

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I feel like a breeze is a game-changer at those temps/dews.  Like stagnant air at those levels, god that must be awful.  Which sort of makes me curious to experience it at the same time, ha.

Rained on and off all the way in the drive here to North Bay. 53° and windy when we got to the hotel. Looks like it got to 64° at home. There is a lot of woods between Ottawa and here. The Trans Canada drops down to a two lane road not that far west of Ottawa, maybe 50 miles?  Tomorrow we drive to Sault st Marie. Wish the weather was going to be better but I’m still excited to see the big lakes. 

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6 hours ago, bristolri_wx said:

Again, I post this tirade every year, but why are people such fans of high dewpoints?

Sunny with highs in the 70’s and 80’s with dew points in the 50’s is what I would consider perfect summer weather, even for this winter fan. It’s good for just about every outdoor activity imagined.

Yet I don’t get the rooting for 85/72? Who wants to be sweaty and uncomfortable? Do you enjoy the crotch rots and the swamp ass? Are you a nudist that doesn’t want to catch a chill at the twigs and berries solstice festival?

I understand enjoyment of almost all kinds of weather except for the ones that like high temps and dew points. They must have stock in deodorant companies and air conditioner manufacturers. 
 

That is all.

IMG_1485.jpeg

When I think of summer, dps in the 50s and comfortable temps don’t come to mind. If I want that boring, stale crap I wait for the darkening, depressing fall months to descend upon me. It may sound a little strange but a big part of me enjoys the dank, sweaty days of the summer season. If I want, I can simply drive 15 minutes to the beach or even just run around like a madman in a sprinkler without an ounce of shame. And when that’s all set and done, I can walk around in shorts and a tee shirt late in the evening and feel the lightness and pure blissfulness of the warm air around me. Because that’s what a season that I wait nearly 9 months for is all about. And you know what, I wouldn’t have it any other way baby. :pepsi:

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3 hours ago, Snowedin said:

When I think of summer, dps in the 50s and comfortable temps don’t come to mind. If I want that boring, stale crap I wait for the darkening, depressing fall months to descend upon me. It may sound a little strange but a big part of me enjoys the dank, sweaty days of the summer season. If I want, I can simply drive 15 minutes to the beach or even just run around like a madman in a sprinkler without an ounce of shame. And when that’s all set and done, I can walk around in shorts and a tee shirt late in the evening and feel the lightness and pure blissfulness of the warm air around me. Because that’s what a season that I wait nearly 9 months for is all about. And you know what, I wouldn’t have it any other way baby. :pepsi:

You can’t do any of those things when it’s 82/55? You gotta be kidding me.

Again I’m not prescribing cold autumn Canadian air here. We have had a number of beautiful COC days as of late here it’s been in the 80’s with lower dew points. Not the Mojave Desert dry air either. Just pleasant. It’s nice to walk outside and not break out into a sweat as soon as you get out of a shady spot.

Maybe you like danky and sweaty, but the people around you sure don’t!

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15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Sweet looking week incoming. Very brief mild up Thursday and Friday then right back into it. Doesn't get much better!

 

Screenshot_20240610_073714_Google.jpg

It’s 44° with a “feels like” of 38° where I am. Not exactly the weather I wanted to start our tour of the Great Lakes with!

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

90 and humid Friday and then early portion of next week and beyond is a huge week of HHH. Get ready 

Late next week may cool off a bit. But big Ricky for 2-3 days anyways.

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Warmest implication as provided by the foreign operational models I've personally seen in several years ...

The op GFS is blocky up over Greenland, driving a polar jet down through the middle Maritimes.  This is an aspect that it wasn't engaging with prior to last nights runs.  We'll see, but that's an outlier comparing to its ensemble mean, which does not engage in nearly as much (if any) +anomalies over the N NAO domain.  The model is in fact an outlier to every model source technology there is, fwiw.  This model seems to go out of its way to engineer heat suppression, I've noticed, as one of it's bias charms - it's not a good choice for ferreting out heat departures in the longer ranges because of that. That said ... it doesn't make it wrong every time. 

The ensemble means are impressive from all three sources; though they vary some with particulars, the principle sell by all three is for a class in +PNA --> -PNA instructive SW expulsion of kinetic air layer, into a highly coherent eastern positive anomaly.  Pretty text book... doing so on the solstice is just an eerier bit of another impressive timing bonus....  

This is all going back a week or more with broadly applicable techniques, and now ...the last three day's worth of runs with coherence.  It's really more about being this clearly signaled, this far in advance.. We're still talking about beyond D7 or 8.

 

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32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

90 and humid Friday and then early portion of next week and beyond is a huge week of HHH. Get ready 

We've been hearing these tales of unrelenting heat since the beginning of March. Maybe it'll actually happen this time lolz...

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22 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

high end heat potential day 9/10 on the 0z EURO 

would like to see this within D7 on modeling to feel more confident 

It's funny ( perhaps in a not so ha-ha way ...) how if anything, I've noted the 2-meter temperature renditions for all operational models in the D4+ range, are almost always NOT representing the actual 2-meter temperature. They seem to stop the extrapolations short of the real surface, stranding the high temperatures as much as 4-6 below what the synoptic metrics would arguably support.  < D4 this is less obviously so, but they are always too cold at the surface in winter cold loading events, and too cold in the summer during heat loading for time periods beyond.  Not sure why...

The Euro has 23.5C over NYC D9 or around then, with WSW wind coming from Pheonix AZ, under a 850 mb Sonoran thermal shock ...          97      Okay.  I mean that's plenty hot. LOL.  But that's like a 810 mb tall  BL mixing depth and probably a 104 if all that other juggernaut sets up like that.   It does put up a 102 on D10 tho, which is the haha because the above vitals are still bangin away.  

Obviously, we're not talking about a prediction from this time range - we're just running over the parametric gunk.

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