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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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2 hours ago, kdxken said:

You put the bug in my ear to measure some of my trees. Can you please repost your measurements. Biggest / oldest seems to be a white oak at around 12 ft in circumference. Using the growth rate charts I found puts it at around 190 years. Although I couldn't find the growth rate for black locust. Have one a little over 12 ft. 

 

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Awesome project.  I have a Shagbark Hickory that has a 154" circumference.  That one is about 360 years old.  A friend from Cornell came to look at it and he said it is one of the oldest in the area.  I'll email him and see what he suggests for a Black Locust for calculation.  

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22 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

Awesome project.  I have a Shagbark Hickory that has a 154" circumference.  That one is about 360 years old.  A friend from Cornell came to look at it and he said it is one of the oldest in the area.  I'll email him and see what he suggests for a Black Locust for calculation.  

That's awesome! Take a picture sometime when you get a chance.

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40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rain over. .25 total . Gonna really Stein hard next 10 days. Sun should be out next hour or two . Grad pool party later this afternoon at daughter’s friends. Looking forward to furnace later this week thru months end 

Not sold on prolong furnace. More like Midwest

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

59 and rain. This blows.

may be able to salvage mid afternoon on...  

yesterday the fast moving convective/CAA clouds diminished at 6ish pm, and we had an 1.5 solid hours of warm sun.  This 4 week window in the solar calendar can do that.

Sat has a rapid motion with thinning already approaching the west side of ORH hils

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Good to have a sleepy rainy midday.  It should clear and be pretty nice by late afternoon.   Fairly typical beginning of June with an occasional washout embedded.  Should be warm by late week but it does seem big heat stays west awhile longer.  We may get some over the top heat though before it settles in.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rain over. .25 total . Gonna really Stein hard next 10 days. Sun should be out next hour or two . Grad pool party later this afternoon at daughter’s friends. Looking forward to furnace later this week thru months end 

Enjoy the father’s day coc-k. 
 

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Good to have a sleepy rainy midday.  It should clear and be pretty nice by late afternoon.   Fairly typical beginning of June with an occasional washout embedded.  Should be warm by late week but it does seem big heat stays west awhile longer.  We may get some over the top heat though before it settles in.

The latter is probably the best way to go for now.  

Climate would infer heat false alarms in June modeling is probably more common than they are actually realized.  We sometimes do get big heat numbers in May and June ( 1976 freak April).  Obviously you know this...  but the return on that doesn't match the frequency of model signal selling during this time of year.  [enter reasons here ] our big numbers more apt to verify after the 4th of July

Right now the the +PNA is scheduled to at least neutralize really this week.  In fact, all the telecon sources are nose diving the index from an impressive +3 SD ... all the way to neutral by Wed?  yeah, holy shit.   But it stops descending around -.5 and then bounces around neutral-negative for a week.  That's technically some kind of mode switch, but is it enough?    The spatial layout(synoptic) of the ensemble means from all three, GGEM/EPS/GEFS, have +hgt anomalies N-NE of HA, with concomitant -hgt anomalies encroaching on the Pac NW and eventually western N/A.  The natural telecon down stream is +hgt anomalies erupting over the eastern mid latitude continent.  But this latter aspect ... for some reason the models are being coy with that.  Some of them even attempting to not raise heights once in awhile which highly suspect.  

The operational versions of these have varied from shunted heat to more signficance with poor continuity.  

Yet again... after backing off, the 12z GFS comes right back with a textbook SW U.S. to NE conveyor torch ... This 200 hr outlook was originally supposed to be by this Friday, so we're also observing some can kicking too

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30 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In CT yesterday was mostly cloudy windy and cool until late afternoon after a few hours of morning sun. Around here it was not a nice day overall . Certainly not Coc k

Yeah wasn’t bad here. Maybe like 2 hours of mostly cloudy. Was windy though. Would have preferred it 10 degrees warmer. But any Saturday with sun is a good Saturday.

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Hello Euro with heights closing in on 596 centered over the Del Marva.

First time since we began ferreting out this pattern change have the Euro and GFS been agreeing in principle about magnitude in the E

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