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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weekend shaping to be a classic HHH with lots of sun in SNE and a PM storm Sunday. One slight mild down early week and then it’s HHH the rest of next week and beyond . 

There will be breaks in the beyond time frame just like there have been last couple of weeks. Models haven’t been great at picking up the shortwaves and fronts pushing through until a few days before. It doesn’t look like things truly change until mid July, when heights rise in Canada again.

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48 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yesterday and today are a beauty. We had our annual company outing this week and the folks from Georgia were enjoying the coc yesterday while being defeated they never have summer days and nights like this…

Judging by today's posts everyone loves this weather with the exception of a couple kooks.

Impossibly blue...

 

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12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Deer flies are definitely worse than last year by a ton

Wife and I did a virtual 5k this morning and could have gone twice that (albeit slowly) it was so awesome out. 

No doubt.  Worst year for deer flies in quite a while.

Been catching 20- 30 flies on my 'tanglefoot hat' every day when I take the doggo for his 30 minute walk in the woods.

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15 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

My wife always wanted to take the fam to Acadia for summer vacation. And I would not do it. I don’t want to go a cold summer climate to vacation . It’s a beautiful area . But I’m not vacationing somewhere that requires hoodies and likely won’t get above 72.  I’ll go there in the fall sure . When I’m not in summer mode . 

Has Pittsburg ever hit 90?

They've reached 93 several times at 1st CT Lake, elev 1660.

The only time I've gone swimming in truly warm salt water in Maine was adjacent to the Acadia Loop Road just south of Otter Cliffs.  Of course, that was on Hot Saturday when BHB reached 100.  :D

45 here this morning.  Saw 37 at HIE along with the 27 on MWN.

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Awful lapse rates for Sunday but if we can recover after morning stuff there could be a few nasty storms. Dynamics are very strong and the instability would be there should we recover given dews into the 70's. Best forcing is displaced too. Would be looking at some very localized severe potential with potential for a tornado

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25 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Awful lapse rates for Sunday but if we can recover after morning stuff there could be a few nasty storms. Dynamics are very strong and the instability would be there should we recover given dews into the 70's. Best forcing is displaced too. Would be looking at some very localized severe potential with potential for a tornado

This is kinda bush -league buuut, my experience with this kind of annotation outta SPC is we get some dark bases and a couple nickle blat rain drops, then ... that line moves E-S and we end up looking at a back lit CB wall over far SE zones with DPs crashing over western sections.  It seems like we're more apt to realize when the SLGT region is slightly west of us, and then we cash -in on the progressive correction

 

day3otlk_0730.gif

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is kinda bush -league buuut, my experience with this kind of annotation outta SPC is we get some dark bases and a couple nickle blats, then ... that line moves E-S and we end up looking at a back lit CB wall over far SE zones with DPs crashing over western sections

 

day3otlk_0730.gif

Certainly plausible depending on the timing. 

But the way the setup looks, I think updrafts will really struggle to become mature. I was looking at a few soundings and the thermal profile is rather wonky. We'll see a line of heavy rain with thunder but cells within the line will be of the pulse variety. Certainly enough shear though, both speed and directionally, that any cell that is able to become mature enough could rotate and produce a tornado. 

In terms of timing though, I think we end up seeing this slow down a bit (which would increase potential). Front looks to become nearly parallel to the upper flow, an indicator it will slow. Meanwhile, this will increase the potential for flash flooding. This should be the #1 concern. 

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