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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Back to shitty lapse rates for Sunday. Lots of questions with that right now, particularly with the timing. Also, looks like the best forcing will be lagging the front a bit and there will be a bit of a disconnect between the greatest shear/forcing and highest instability. Highest instability = south, greatest shear/forcing = north. 

Anyways, looks like we could remain convectively active moving through the first at least week of July. You just hope we can sneak in a few EMLs in here. It's not a terrible look for EML advection, but one thing I think we're missing is more of a trough at H7 digging into the west. 

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45 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Didn't you get multiple thunderstorms the other day? We don't even get those. They avoid this area.

yeah but not a lot of rain. <2" on the month

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sunday looks messy. Not really enthused. Frontal timing seems suspect.

Agreed. At least with timing though there is still some room to improve upon but it at least seems to me a bit of a disconnect between best forcing and instability. Regardless, lapse rate look pretty bad so anything would probably be isolated and pretty localized. 

I am a bit more worried for FF potential.

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1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Last night was entertaining but nothing crazy around here like what some other areas saw. We briefly lost power but it came back on right away. Maybe a couple of brief 40-45 mph gusts. The 8/4/2015 macroburst was much more impressive in RI/SEMA.

Wind core was north of you on radar.

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Per @amarshall Destructionbury is back

Never get alexa controlled lights in your bedroom. When the power goes out all of the lights in your bedroom turn on at 100% scaring the shit out of you. 

Tons of trees down. Power out still. 

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At least for the present hour, flawless.  

78/58 with about the purest, most serene blue this planet has to offer, with very gentle zephyrs caressing Kevin's napes.

( He loves that - )

Looking at indexes/ ens means, I'd suggest the next sig severe synoptics would be D3/4 ( probably bias the earlier).  

Then later on toward the 2nd week of July there is another heat signal that the operational runs are hesitant if at all showing much reflection.   But the base-line hemisphere is very coherently in -PNA and I don't see any demonstrative version of any ens means that early-suggest any summer variant of blocking.  That's like playing with matches and the operational versions may just be doing what they did prior to the last heat wave when its signal was also in the extended.   We'll see

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