Damage In Tolland Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Big boy night ahead pike south. Give up at own risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: HRRR rips from NYC to pike region into ern MA. The HRRR does have some impressive instability as far north as the Pike. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 I'm more interested in the first long track storm potential of the year.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The HRRR does have some impressive instability as far north as the Pike. As skeptical as I am on instability and the northward extent of an MCS, this does feel like a nowcast to me. The SPC is hesitant to upgrade probs, but at least for areas like Philly and NJ I think it’s warranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: I'm more interested in the first long track storm potential of the year.. SAL in place. Not sure about that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: As skeptical as I am on instability and the northward extent of an MCS, this does feel like a nowcast to me. The SPC is hesitant to upgrade probs, but at least for areas like Philly and NJ I think it’s warranted. Yeah agree. Nowcast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: As skeptical as I am on instability and the northward extent of an MCS, this does feel like a nowcast to me. The SPC is hesitant to upgrade probs, but at least for areas like Philly and NJ I think it’s warranted. I can see an enhanced risk coming later on which the details become clearer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah agree. Nowcast for sure. Will have to watch how convection evolves through the day across IN/OH/PA. This could give a good clue as to how far north instability surges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: SAL in place. Not sure about that. Added the Eps that could be fun somewhere. SAL doesn't seem terrible but it is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Thinking there could be a localized FF threat somewhere between HFD - PVD / I-84 to the Pike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Just now, ineedsnow said: Added the Eps that could be fun somewhere. SAL doesn't seem terrible but it is there How do you find these things lol. I haven't looked at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: I'm more interested in the first long track storm potential of the year.. Too soon if you’re talking about high end stuff. Climo rules even in the most favorable of years. An Elsa (not track, just development case) would be a best case imo. This is an anomalously favorable window though for something in the MDR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: How do you find these things lol. I haven't looked at all. I'm always looking for something exciting lol . Leaving for mount Greylock for the day hoping the views are good 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Just give me some nocturnal fireworks and I’ll be happy. I just don’t want it to slide 10 miles south of me like my last 15 thunderstorms have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 8 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Just give me some nocturnal fireworks and I’ll be happy. I just don’t want it to slide 10 miles south of me like my last 15 thunderstorms have I’ve missed a microburst in Albany and two supercells over my house in the last week. I’ve cornered the market on pain. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 10 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Just give me some nocturnal fireworks and I’ll be happy. I just don’t want it to slide 10 miles south of me like my last 15 thunderstorms have It might be lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 if we see anything pop earlier (19z-22z), thinking it shifts the main show to a south coast special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It might be lol. Wouldn’t surprise me if Taunton to Brockton enjoy the bulk of this again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Wouldn’t surprise me if Taunton to Brockton enjoy the bulk of this again This setup would support that I think. But it's a nowcast. Might not be much, or could be further south. We also have a shot at late aftn activity prior to this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 I really feel bad for WPC/NCEP. Having hardcore issues these past several months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 sunday looks like it's heading for the crapper 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: sunday looks like it's heading for the crapper hoping the front is about 12 hours faster than currently advertised, which would allow us to salvage some of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: sunday looks like it's heading for the crapper Saturday evening looks wet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Slight risk expanded into SNE. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Slight risk expanded into SNE. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. It’s coming. Strobe light show tonight with big gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Slight risk expanded into SNE. ...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI. This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into the northeast states tonight. Ahead of the system, strong heating is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic region and southern New England. A diffuse surface boundary extends from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to rise into the 80s/90s to the south. This will result in an environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Current indications are that storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread eastward through the day. Damaging winds appear to be the main concern. Storms may track across southern New England and to the NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat. They put the 2% tor risk back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 HREF is a widespread soaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 Definitely not an expert like Scott but gotta figure in lieu of recent developments that our chances tonight are better than the faux tornado watch from the other day for thunderstorms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 HRRR is insistent on firing cells along a boundary near the CT/RI/MA border around 00z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 41 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Definitely not an expert like Scott but gotta figure in lieu of recent developments that our chances tonight are better than the faux tornado watch from the other day for thunderstorms This is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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