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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Didn’t look strong on radar but was noteworthy when I first saw it. 

 

4 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

I didn’t notice any rotation on radar. Just looked like straight line winds. I’m trying to find a longer radar velocity loop to look back. Anyone know of one? RadarScope only gets me so far back.

The rotation of the feature is certainly evident and noteworthy but it’s also difficult to see if it connects with the cloud base. 
 

Maybe a land spout? Or a gustnado?

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These were the ones that stood out to me. Again, nothing earth shattering but noteworthy by my eye at the moment.

19 minutes ago, WhiteLawns said:

I didn’t notice any rotation on radar. Just looked like straight line winds. I’m trying to find a longer radar velocity loop to look back. Anyone know of one? RadarScope only gets me so far back.

 

14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

The rotation of the feature is certainly evident and noteworthy but it’s also difficult to see if it connects with the cloud base. 
 

Maybe a land spout? Or a gustnado?

ZSXBWWr.png
 

WKrfmxi.png

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6 minutes ago, butterfish55 said:
27 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:
Will it completely dry up before it reaches here. money says yes, like it always does

Getting it pretty good here in Raynham. It looks like it's trying to make it to the Cape

weakening but looks like we might actually get some liquid out of it. it's being Steiny here so I'll take anything

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

why was that swirl off Florida/Georgia designated with moderate probabilities for development?

Because it was a TC (imo) last night and when recon got to it this morning shear killed the organization 92L had. 

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7 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Some thunder and lightning here and some downpours but nothing severe. Longest day of the year but it’s quite dark already!

I dozed off for a few minutes after dinner when I woke up it was dark, thought I slept for a couple hours but it was just the storms, it's actually sunny here now.

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24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Because it was a TC (imo) last night and when recon got to it this morning shear killed the organization 92L had. 

Outside of a nice swirl I thought it always looked like crap and I don’t recall any guidance doing anything with it. Don’t even recall seeing any shower or thunderstorms in GA or FL outside of some widely isolated, afternoon heating driven stuff. 

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Outside of a nice swirl I thought it always looked like crap and I don’t recall any guidance doing anything with it. Don’t even recall seeing any shower or thunderstorms in GA or FL outside of some widely isolated, afternoon heating driven stuff. 

Guidance signaled something about ten days ago, but lost it. Yesterday when recon was in there it had a closed circulation but it was very weak. Overnight it started threading the needle between a lot of dry air by producing consistent deep convection in a low shear environment and it looked like it was organizing, but this morning shear hit and when recon got there even though I think it was a sheared TC the NHC decided against it. 

Pressures were really high too to be fair. Since that flight it’s become exposed and just never got it together. Anyway, there’s a whole thread on the tropical board.

NHC avoids the criticism that they name every swirl—at least this week. :lol: 

 

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17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guidance signaled something about ten days ago, but lost it. Yesterday when recon was in there it had a closed circulation but it was very weak. Overnight it started threading the needle between a lot of dry air by producing consistent deep convection in a low shear environment and it looked like it was organizing, but this morning shear hit and when recon got there even though I think it was a sheared TC the NHC decided against it. 

Pressures were really high too to be fair. Since that flight it’s become exposed and just never got it together. Anyway, there’s a whole thread on the tropical board.

NHC avoids the criticism that they name every swirl—at least this week. :lol: 

 

Yeah I do recall guidance like 7-10 days ago having something. The GFS anyways has done a decent job with some of the last few waves and hinting at them 7+ days out. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What are you guys thinking about tomorrow and Sunday @weatherwiz & @CoastalWx?

Tomorrow looks like some more scattered stuff while Sunday is about if we can get discrete stuff to pop?

Yeah tomorrow looks scattered. May have to watch for some overnight convection too. 
 

it seems like the 18z models have sped up the timing of the front a bit too. But the primary focus for convection may be a pre-frontal trough. The shear is quite impressive, both speed and directional, and instability will be plenty. Lapse rates aren’t the best but they aren’t the worst either. 
 

Right now I would favor eastern NY (up around Albany) through western Mass, southern VT, and southwest NH. There are some indicators we could see a line of supercells from which is very abnormal for around here. 
 

If we don’t see discrete we could see a decent evening/early overnight snow with the approaching shortwave and good height falls. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

Yeah tomorrow looks scattered. May have to watch for some overnight convection too. 
 

it seems like the 18z models have sped up the timing of the front a bit too. But the primary focus for convection may be a pre-frontal trough. The shear is quite impressive, both speed and directional, and instability will be plenty. Lapse rates aren’t the best but they aren’t the worst either. 
 

Right now I would favor eastern NY (up around Albany) through western Mass, southern VT, and southwest NH. There are some indicators we could see a line of supercells from which is very abnormal for around here. 
 

If we don’t see discrete we could see a decent evening/early overnight snow with the approaching shortwave and good height falls. 

That'd be quite impressive 

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