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June 2024 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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  On 6/19/2024 at 1:17 PM, CoastalWx said:

MHT-LWM will be warmest on a SW flow regime in June as SSTs south of New England still cool. But by July, that distinction typically goes away.

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Yea, I remembered you seeming to think its seasonal. Perhaps more pronounced early on, but its not an entirely seasonal phenomenon.

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  On 6/19/2024 at 1:26 PM, CoastalWx said:

850s are warmest there right now. By tomorrow the mid to upper 90s will definitely be further south as 850 max ts move south too.

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I think we all understand the mid levels take precedence, but all else being equal, that region is usually tic or two above the rest.

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  On 6/19/2024 at 1:27 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we all understand the mid levels take precedence, but all else being equal, that region is usually tic or two above the rest.

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Maybe in deep srly flow regimes? But with the typical SW flow regime, that extends well into CT and ern MA IMO by July in Aug. No doubt they are warmer relative to around them. Fryeburg is a classic example too. 

But my point is that MHT itself seems warm. Not disputing it is a "hot spot" if you will.

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  On 6/19/2024 at 1:41 PM, CoastalWx said:

Pike north especially RT 2 to SNH look good for storms late tomorrow.

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Sure does, could see some flash flooding too as storms should train. 

Shear isn't overly strong but looks like there will be a narrow corridor of bulk shear > 30 knots tomorrow within that area. Lapse rates aren't too terrible either. 

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  On 6/19/2024 at 1:32 PM, CoastalWx said:

Maybe in deep srly flow regimes? But with the typical SW flow regime, that extends well into CT and ern MA IMO by July in Aug. No doubt they are warmer relative to around them. Fryeburg is a classic example too. 

But my point is that MHT itself seems warm. Not disputing it is a "hot spot" if you will.

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Yea, fair enough.

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