June 2024 Obs/Disco

[klw]

Curious to see if the mesoscale remnants coming through NYS hit me later.  It went through the midwest and Lakes and is still alive this morning.  It may just miss home to the north.  Free watering for the yard would be appreciated.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, klw said:

Did you redo the whole yard or just a section?

About  half to 3/4. . The entire side yard on one side, the entire back yard and a portion of other side and portion of front . One was a massive white pine and other was a 125 year old Oak both close to house. In order to get to them they had to drive all over the lawn with Kaboda and chippers . Their truck got stuck in mud at one point. It was excruciating for someone like me to watch unfold to their lawn . And then it never snowed so I had to look at it from Feb - early May . 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

MOS doesn’t even have a heat wave for HFD. lol

KHFD   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   6/18/2024  0000 UTC
FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192
TUE  18| WED 19| THU 20| FRI 21| SAT 22| SUN 23| MON 24| TUE 25 CLIMO
X/N  89| 68  91| 69  93| 69  88| 69  82| 69  86| 69  85| 63  86 59 81
TMP  82| 73  83| 74  85| 74  77| 73  75| 74  78| 74  76| 68  78
DPT  65| 66  65| 68  68| 69  68| 67  68| 68  69| 67  63| 58  62
CLD  PC| PC  CL| PC  PC| PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  PC
WND   9|  9  10|  9   9|  7   8|  5   6|  5   8|  8  14| 13   9
P12   4| 18   6| 14  26| 36  53| 49  48| 50  40| 55  30| 23  17999999
P24    |     20|     35|     69|     68|     60|     65|     36   999
Q12   0|  0   0|  0   0|  0   3|  1   2|  2   2|  4    |
Q24    |      0|      0|      3|      3|      3|       |
T12  13| 15  15| 14  29| 24  52| 25  33| 26  30| 22  26| 11  13
T24    | 20    | 21    | 46    | 54    | 50    | 49    | 26

It'd be an epic model failure if anything close to that occurred imo. Epic. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Does anyone have stats showing how euro AI is faring against the other globals?

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

About  half to 3/4. . The entire side yard on one side, the entire back yard and a portion of other side and portion of front . One was a massive white pine and other was a 125 year old Oak both close to house. In order to get to them they had to drive all over the lawn with Kaboda and chippers . Their truck got stuck in mud at one point. It was excruciating for someone like me to watch unfold to their lawn . And then it never snowed so I had to look at it from Feb - early May . 

you need an irrigation system desperately. you don't even have to think about watering your lawn, just set it and forget it.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Clouds and thunderstorm chances should lessen the higher end potential for many.. GFS now just one day over 90 for southern CT.. Hope to get some rain this week.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Clouds and thunderstorm chances should lessen the higher end potential for many.. GFS now just one day over 90 for southern CT.. Hope to get some rain this week.. 

Maybe by Saturday or Sunday we see a few pop up storms 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

you need an irrigation system desperately. you don't even have to think about watering your lawn, just set it and forget it.

I may look into that for next year. Can only do so much each year with 2 now in college 

[Typhoon Tip]

59 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It'd be an epic model failure if anything close to that occurred imo. Epic. 

It's as though the models are uncoupling the low levels from the mid level synoptics. 

Not just the temperatures inside the range of this "heat wave" ... in all three, Euro GFS GGEM, there is a cool front ending matters by Thursday afternoon at this point.  Thing is, there's very little or no 700 to 500 mb construct that suggests a front should be there that early in the game.  They're moving a weak front with a ton of temperature modulation capacity, into and under those towering heights.  It's a little odd.

One aspect (sort of intangible ..) about this thing is interesting is that the operational models have been fighting the teleconnectors from the get go.  Even if the telecon's are losing correlative value do to seasonal skewing etc ...  the spatial synoptic layouts of the ensemble means have also been very impressive.  The two support(ed) one another.

[CoastalWx]

Meh heat wave 

[WxWatcher007]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Clouds and thunderstorm chances should lessen the higher end potential for many.. GFS now just one day over 90 for southern CT.. Hope to get some rain this week.. 

I originally had Thursday-Friday in the 90s at the coast with Saturday possible but least likely. It will be interesting to see how much, if at all, the modeled heat cut back does translate in reality.

I’m at .44” of rain on the month. Very dry all of a sudden but I don’t expect that to continue in July and August when we’re most convectively active. 

[JustinRP37]

While still hot and much above average, the Euro completely failed with temps this week. Even the "over the top" warming looks less impressive. Most of the city will struggle to get 3+ days in the 90s. The shore will be 'cooler'. Thankfully my nephew is at a sailing camp this week with no ac, so that will be good for him at least. Looking forward though it looks like the cool mornings are over and we are in the Florida like dew period we have become accustomed too. 

[Modfan2]

31 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's as though the models are uncoupling from the low levels from the mid level synoptics. 

Not just the temperatures inside the range of this "heat wave" ... in all three, Euro GFS GGEM, there is a cool front ending matters by Thursday afternoon at this point.  Thing is, there's very little or no 700 to 500 mb construct that suggests a front should be there that early in the game.  They're moving a weak front with a ton of temperature modulation capacity, into and under those towering heights.  It's a little odd.

One aspect (sort of intangible ..) about this thing is interesting is that the operational models have been fighting the teleconnectors from the get go.  Even if the telecon's are losing correlative value do to seasonal skewing etc ...  the spatial synoptic layouts of the ensemble means have also been very impressive.  The two support(ed) one another.

I mentioned to you last week that there is zero confidence in and long range model output until they start having some consistency. End of last week into last weekend was supposed be into the low 90’s and we saw how that turned out. Local Mets need BDL * temps to verify each day to justify the hype. 

[CoastalWx]

When did 850 temps support those stupid surface temps from models? I saw a lot of 20-21 with a few dabs of 22. I suppose 22C could support 100F if well mixed but it looked like a lot of 94-97 with maybe a 98-99 thrown in. 
 

Debris clouds here for the time being.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

While still hot and much above average, the Euro completely failed with temps this week. Even the "over the top" warming looks less impressive. Most of the city will struggle to get 3+ days in the 90s. The shore will be 'cooler'. Thankfully my nephew is at a sailing camp this week with no ac, so that will be good for him at least. Looking forward though it looks like the cool mornings are over and we are in the Florida like dew period we have become accustomed too. 

Mmm what's happening is more than just labeling the Euro.   

The Euro was a 1-3 F warmer than other guidance, ... not a huge margin firstly.  Should this actually become more of a  pedestrian heat anomaly they are all guilty by association as they all spent many run cycles in the high 90s. 

Just op ed: something unusual is happening with this pattern.  It seems the ridging in the mid and upper levels are quasi uncoupled from the surface - somehow...  The models are placing fronts under 590 heights, with very little or no trough inflection at mid level.  This is not typically happening like this

 

[Damage In Tolland]

If anyone actually thought there’s be 5 days of 100 .. or even 3.. that’s their fault. This always looked like a 95-98 or 99 4-5 day deal and intercepted come with high dews. That’s how this has looked, so nothing has changed. Even Saturday should be 90 ish and high dews and 80’s Sunday 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

When did 850 temps support those stupid surface temps from models? I saw a lot of 20-21 with a few dabs of 22. I suppose 22C could support 100F if well mixed but it looked like a lot of 94-97 with maybe a 98-99 thrown in. 
 

Debris clouds here for the time being.

I don’t think the failure would be in the Euro way overshooting the 103-105 for Thursday-Friday it once had. Anyone with any knowledge knew that was likely bogus. The SW advection never looked right. Ridge placement a little far north, etc..

But if the guidance which was honking legitimate mid-upper 90s late week and a 5-6 day heat wave trends to a reality of only upper 80s all week—as the week is literally underway—lol that’s a bust. 

At any rate this is all probably cart before the horse. We’ll just see how this plays out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

49 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I mentioned to you last week that there is zero confidence in and long range model output until they start having some consistency. End of last week into last weekend was supposed be into the low 90’s and we saw how that turned out. Local Mets need BDL * temps to verify each day to justify the hype. 

The bold isn't really true, though ... not mathematically nor in practicum ( I figure you're just being hyperbolic, granted - )

Confidence may not be very high - it depends on the leading circumstantial indicators.

If it makes anyone feel any better,  ...we pointed out that this amplitude/+anomaly was lacking the 850 mb thermal injection/release from the typical source geographies - that might have been a clue that the models were overstating the heat?   - just a suggestion.  

For whatever reason they had, Brian and Scott were also mentioning that the numbers appeared too lofty.  

I mean, we pick and choose what "data" we want to use.   If these constraining ideas were incorporated, that might move the confidence arrow up or down.  And there's some concept relativity there, too.  Like, we could say we are "higher confidence in the models being too amplified with temperature results" say -

Op ed:  part of the problem ( not you per se - ) is that society has developed a kind of lust for dystopian headline-able events - it's really a kind of 'soft addictive' preoccupation.  It sort of began in the latter 1990s whence telecom art of dissemination went through a tech advancement boon  ...  "doom scrolling" as it were, has become an entertaining pass-time and even trigger for some.  People have access enough to data that they could formulate their own impressions but that is rife with problems.  The shimmering sophisticate nature of the populous is definitely going to synthesize reality with the utmost unbiased usage of various data inputs  LOL   The models sending their triggers big numbers    heh

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If anyone actually thought there’s be 5 days of 100 .. or even 3.. that’s their fault. This always looked like a 95-98 or 99 4-5 day deal and intercepted come with high dews. That’s how this has looked, so nothing has changed. Even Saturday should be 90 ish and high dews and 80’s Sunday 

Very exciting times.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think the failure would be in the Euro way overshooting the 103-105 for Thursday-Friday it once had. Anyone with any knowledge knew that was likely bogus. The SW advection never looked right. Ridge placement a little far north, etc..

But if the guidance which was honking legitimate mid-upper 90s late week and a 5-6 day heat wave trends to a reality of only upper 80s all week—as the week is literally underway—lol that’s a bust. 

At any rate this is all probably cart before the horse. We’ll just see how this plays out. 

I expect CT valley into metro BOS and north to be pretty darn warm. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Any time I get 3 90's in a row at my house it is noteworthy.  That doesn't happen every year.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any time I get 3 90's in a row at my house it is noteworthy.  That doesn't happen every year.

I don’t think you will. I guess we’ll see.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Any time I get 3 90's in a row at my house it is noteworthy.  That doesn't happen every year.

No one will call out the GFS when it busts on no 90’s . I mean that is worse than what the Euro did . 3-5 days of mid -upper 90’s is very impressive so early in the season . Gfs not even having 90 is laughable 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I expect CT valley into metro BOS and north to be pretty darn warm. 

The MOS post set me off this morning  

I’m not home, but my station in East Hartford usually tracks very closely with HFD to the SW. Usually within a degree or two. It’s the coolest station in the area even though a few others are also high quality. I’m about two hours ahead of yesterday’s pace. 

[Cyclone-68]

Our inside air is giving us issues so I’d be happy this once to see temps underachieve a little 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The MOS post set me off this morning  

I’m not home, but my station in East Hartford usually tracks very closely with HFD to the SW. Usually within a degree or two. It’s the coolest station in the area even though a few others are also high quality. I’m about two hours ahead of yesterday’s pace. 

Can’t wait to see BDL 99 and HFD 89.

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When did 850 temps support those stupid surface temps from models? I saw a lot of 20-21 with a few dabs of 22. I suppose 22C could support 100F if well mixed but it looked like a lot of 94-97 with maybe a 98-99 thrown in. 
 

Debris clouds here for the time being.

GYX had 26C in their AFD and 103 in the grids at d6 at one point and I was bewildered at what they were looking at. 
 

But yeah…tough to break all time records when the 850s can’t even make top 10. 

[weatherwiz]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When did 850 temps support those stupid surface temps from models? I saw a lot of 20-21 with a few dabs of 22. I suppose 22C could support 100F if well mixed but it looked like a lot of 94-97 with maybe a 98-99 thrown in. 
 

Debris clouds here for the time being.

Maybe we should add modeled 2M temp maps to the garbage list with the snow maps

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe we should add modeled 2M temp maps to the garbage list with the snow maps

they've always been less useful

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can’t wait to see BDL 99 and HFD 89.

*