radiator Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 And thunder in Litchfield County, CT. Not a lot of it, though (unlike the Boston area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 12z Euro not backing down. Hundy -Hundy03 at BDL next week . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 I did back down in the total list or synoptic metrics, though. The GFS did too. Could be a beginning of the 'deamplification' game when extended gets into mid range. Have to watch for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12z Euro not backing down. Hundy -Hundy03 at BDL next week . When the hundies go up, the undies go down? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: When the hundies go up, the undies go down? Lol take em up and take em down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Setting up training along the western end of the Pike ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 storms look like a dud here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 3 hours ago, dendrite said: Only over Newark. It only seems that way - least favorite US major AP for the umpteenth year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Cute little cell to my W-SW. rumbling thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 I'll have to catch up on their reasoning but this appears axial too far NW aligned to me from what I've been seeing in the guidance, as well ... a-priori with how heat of this type will tend to effect the I-95 corridor given the total manifold of synoptics. Otherwise, I think this is experimental not ready for use. But I did have a conversation with an NWS director at the conference last June, whence I brought the synergistic heat phenomenon needs to be recognized as specific risk to civility..etc. She was in complete agreement and said that heat was an aspect they were working on improving. I think this product below is a great step (example). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Looks like round two is about to blow through..thank goodness as round one was hardly worth a mention earlier. Let’s get those streams of pollen splashed on angry dog walkers baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 11 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: You post em in the winter.. why not summer? Charts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Big deal a little bit of heat is coming. Just trade in the jeans for some shorts and drink water. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 This is bananas for Stowe. 94F, 95F, 94F. Lows near 70F. Tuesday Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 94. South wind 3 to 6 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Calm wind. Juneteenth Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 95. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Calm wind. Thursday A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 94. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Big deal a little bit of heat is coming. Just trade in the jeans for some shorts and drink water. Take's 95-100 for you to wear shorts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Take's 95-100 for you to wear shorts? It used to but I’ll wear shorts now if it’s 85-90 but it also depends. If I have to be stuck mostly inside I’ll wear long pants. It drives me nuts how establishments (or at home) just crank the AC. I do like the AC at night because it’s miserable to sleep when it’s warm but if you’re just sitting behind a desk or out somewhere there is zero need to have the AC cranked so low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sled Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12z Euro not backing down. Hundy -Hundy03 at BDL next week . That's too hot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Rest my case … in my own inimitable way I was describing that bold as the potential is increasing here for the dreaded “ synergistic feedback” response and this thing being a bigger deal than these 2 m temperatures. It could be one of these scenarios where if anything the GFS 2-m are behind the ball meanwhile, we’re trying to argue why the others are too hot. But this being outside of model climatology …that’s another way of suggesting a situation that transcends/the same thing as the synergistic event. Interesting test Big story for next week continues to be likelihood of dangerous heat and humidity starting Tue and peaking Wed-Fri. Ensembles are in very good agreement on building strong upper ridge over eastern U.S. through most of next week which lends increasing confidence. In fact, 500 mb heights nearing 600 dm is something rarely seen in the Northeast and is a very strong signal for record heat. This aligns with EPS and NAEFS Situational Awareness Tables which show several parameters outside of model climatology relating to temperature, signaling potential for a highly unusual event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Rest my case … in my own inimitable way I was describing that bold as the potential is increasing here for the dreaded “ synergistic feedback” response and this thing being a bigger deal than these 2 m temperatures. It could be one of these scenarios where if anything the GFS 2-m are behind the ball meanwhile, we’re trying to argue why the others are too hot. But this being outside of model climatology …that’s another way of suggesting a situation that transcends/the same thing as the synergistic event. Interesting test Big story for next week continues to be likelihood of dangerous heat and humidity starting Tue and peaking Wed-Fri. Ensembles are in very good agreement on building strong upper ridge over eastern U.S. through most of next week which lends increasing confidence. In fact, 500 mb heights nearing 600 dm is something rarely seen in the Northeast and is a very strong signal for record heat. This aligns with EPS and NAEFS Situational Awareness Tables which show several parameters outside of model climatology relating to temperature, signaling potential for a highly unusual event. Hopefully it backs off. Wasn't today and yesterday supposed to be hot? Even the BDL heated tarmac didn't reach 90 either day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 18 minutes ago, kdxken said: Hopefully it backs off. Wasn't today and yesterday supposed to be hot? Even the BDL heated tarmac didn't reach 90 either day. Yeah, but unfortunately, today’s synoptics and what’s going on next week are unrelated. there’s a collateral index exchange going on all over the hemisphere, concurrently -whatever led to today and what’s going on today is prior to any of that taking place. The impending change appears to be harmonic. The result is a Rwave nadir situated around California and that’s sending a signal over Eastern North America, which is then being augmented further by a very positive NAO - 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 That’s said. There’s still time for this to modulate. The GFS last two runs are showing a lot of continuity issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'll have to catch up on their reasoning but this appears axial too far NW aligned to me from what I've been seeing in the guidance, as well ... a-priori with how heat of this type will tend to effect the I-95 corridor given the total manifold of synoptics. Otherwise, I think this is experimental not ready for use. But I did have a conversation with an NWS director at the conference last June, whence I brought the synergistic heat phenomenon needs to be recognized as specific risk to civility..etc. She was in complete agreement and said that heat was an aspect they were working on improving. I think this product below is a great step (example). I think it factors in climo. Point-click centered on Bradford Regional Airport in north central Pennsylvania has 92, 95, 95, 93 and 91 next week. Since records began in 1957, there have only been 2 June days there in the 90s: 90 on 6/16/2022, and 93 on 6/22/2022. The all-time record is 97F on 7/16/1988 and 7/21/2011. And only one year saw more than 4 90+ readings: 1988, with 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That’s sad. There’s still time for this to modulate. The GFS last two runs are showing a lot of continuity issues though. Yeah unfortunately it seems like this is what usually happens with these heat waves. When was the last time this area had a real synergistic heat event? Hot Saturday maybe? Would be fun to break some records. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 59 minutes ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: Yeah unfortunately it seems like this is what usually happens with these heat waves. When was the last time this area had a real synergistic heat event? Hot Saturday maybe? Would be fun to break some records. Jul 2011. Jul 1995. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 Nice soaking stratiform rain now. COC weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Rest my case … in my own inimitable way I was describing that bold as the potential is increasing here for the dreaded “ synergistic feedback” response and this thing being a bigger deal than these 2 m temperatures. It could be one of these scenarios where if anything the GFS 2-m are behind the ball meanwhile, we’re trying to argue why the others are too hot. But this being outside of model climatology …that’s another way of suggesting a situation that transcends/the same thing as the synergistic event. Interesting test Big story for next week continues to be likelihood of dangerous heat and humidity starting Tue and peaking Wed-Fri. Ensembles are in very good agreement on building strong upper ridge over eastern U.S. through most of next week which lends increasing confidence. In fact, 500 mb heights nearing 600 dm is something rarely seen in the Northeast and is a very strong signal for record heat. This aligns with EPS and NAEFS Situational Awareness Tables which show several parameters outside of model climatology relating to temperature, signaling potential for a highly unusual event. If it’s going to get hot, let’s go for high-end and records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 15 Author Share Posted June 15 No turning back now, let's get after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 56 minutes ago, dendrite said: Jul 2011. Jul 1995. Yeah July 2011, 1995 and 1991 were definitely pretty hot, but not as extreme as August 1975 and July 1911, which were all timers in a league of their own. It's very rare to get a synergistic event of that caliber. The departures for the April 1976 heat wave were pretty wild. 98F on April 19th at PVD. If those anomalies had occurred in July it would've beat out 1975 and 1911. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 15 Author Share Posted June 15 I don't care for high-end heat personally. Similar to frigid cold, equally as bad. Morning/evening are terrific but from my experience (outside NE), the 100/70 etc. 12-3pm is rough. Prefer 90/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 1 minute ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: Yeah July 2011, 1995 and 1991 were definitely pretty hot, but not as extreme as August 1975 and July 1911, which were all timers in a league of their own. It's very rare to get a synergistic event of that caliber. Depends where you were. They were just as extreme in S NH. 1977 was a torrid stretch too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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