ice1972 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Is that a 102 over my fanny? Walnut Creek CA says hold my beer lol…… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowedin Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Caught this big guy at the birdbath earlier trying to get some relief from the stein fest that has taken hold round these parts. Any fellow bird watchers want to chime in and enlighten me as to what exactly this is? My gut is telling me it’s either a raven or a blackbird but honestly I’m not totally sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Crow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Looks like the Hi-Res models sped up the front a bit. So maybe a better chance for storms this afternoon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 The end of this euro run has 110/48 for DC. Toss those thermodynamics all day. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam038 Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Caught this big guy at the birdbath earlier trying to get some relief from the stein fest that has taken hold round these parts. Any fellow bird watchers want to chime in and enlighten me as to what exactly this is? My gut is telling me it’s either a raven or a blackbird but honestly I’m not totally sure. Maybe a grackle? . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 No breaks thru day 10. The hottest summer of our lives about to begin. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No breaks thru day 10. The hottest summer of our lives about to begin. Charts!! 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 I will set the O/U for BDL in this stretch at 99.5°. If we were using HFD I’d probably drop that 2°F, but we know how BDL runs torchy MEX is 99°, 96°, 94°, 90° beginning on Tue. That may be more climo working in toward the tail end. But if the model is overmixing a bit (H75) then the 850s may be running a hair too warm as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like the Hi-Res models sped up the front a bit. So maybe a better chance for storms this afternoon. Yeah NWS seems to be more gung-ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 3 hours ago, Snowedin said: Caught this big guy at the birdbath earlier trying to get some relief from the stein fest that has taken hold round these parts. Any fellow bird watchers want to chime in and enlighten me as to what exactly this is? My gut is telling me it’s either a raven or a blackbird but honestly I’m not totally sure. Looks like a raven. They've made it come back in New England. They make a very distinctive noise if you heard it. Almost a gargling. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: No breaks thru day 10. The hottest summer of our lives about to begin. Charts? Lol oh how the mighty have fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Congrats Springfield HFD on the flooding rains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Charts? Lol oh how the mighty have fallen. You post em in the winter.. why not summer? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: No breaks thru day 10. The hottest summer of our lives about to begin. Another fantastic wknd on tap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 GFS: I was shocked to see 4 consecutive 20Z afternoon readings between Tuesday and Friday, in the 98 and 102 range between PWM to NYC. Whether we set daily records or not ... just off the top of the head I believe that would be a record in aggregation. Euro: While similar in length, it only has two days of triple digit heat, Thurs and Friday. The absolutely sick/'synergistic' heat explosion takes place in the mid Atlantic next weekend, two days, back to back with historic highs - a period of time when the GFS is attempting to dismantle the pattern. GGEM: was 91 to 95 (seasonal) heat wave implication. Similar to the GFS, it snaps the heat rather abruptly with a N-door type front. I just would advise ...the onset of this heat excursion is higher confidence wrt the pattern orientation, while just middling confidence as to actual high temperatures within... this latter aspect is too prone to nuance to be certain in best of times. A high cloud patch is the difference by 6 F when it comes to a pattern's cap temperatures being actually achieved or not. The end game is less clear. We are out there beyond 180 hours and that's the unmanned fire hose range. The GFS/GGEM could be right or wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Can picture Tip with a band aid under his eye and Nike head band dancing to this as the Euro rolls in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Can picture Tip with a band aid under his eye and Nike head band dancing to this as the Euro rolls in. it's interesting that the highest heat lags the 500mb amplitude in the Euro. The 596+ dm is gone and it keeps getting hotter for the mid Atlantic. It relieves SNE (NE of HFD) but then again, this thing is long enough that the front of it is high confidence and the end of it is beyond the confidence horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Complete grid failure coming . https://x.com/billkarins/status/1801400584542540072?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Sometimes when the solstice seasons get so extreme early the pattern reverses by high season (January or July). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Complete grid failure coming . https://x.com/billkarins/status/1801400584542540072?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Underrrrrrr 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 Totally unscientific but today has the feel and sound of some good storms on the way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: Underrrrrrr I'm always amazed at how much confidence people have in record temps when the prog is like 5+ days out. In this case...an all time monthly high for BGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 11 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: That’s helpful, thanks. So basically: 1) It’s pretty clear that if this verified or even if we saw heights of 594-597dm we’d have a significant heat wave (while the heights are historic to near historic in their own right) but by itself it’s not enough for a truly historic 3 day 99+ high heat wave because as you said the other day it’d take time for the heights to expand and fill (?). That results in a sort of step ladder increase in daily highs so rather than 99, 99, 101 it’s more 92, 93, 95. This is essentially true when in absence of a synoptic primer air mass, like a 22+C 850 mb charged layer getting into the mixing the bottom of the column. If you have 4 or 5 days of excessive heights, you'll accumulate with each successive nightly lows tending warmer, setting up the next day for a higher launching temperature..etc. 91 ... 93...95...98 then a front type thing. This is more of seasonal heat wave look. 2) For historic potential, we really should see anomalously warm 850mb temperatures eject from the SW to our area. So far, guidance has been lukewarm on balance about it. True... needs to be well mixed. I've seen 24C at 850 under cirrus density and it's "only" 93. As this go of it, the Euro's been 22+ but in packets within a 20C dragon layer. Not quite convincing. Just to note, 21C in a well mixed environment will get 35C just above the 2-m slope on the sounding, so figure 37 or 38C walking across parking lots and urban sprawl. 3) For now some of the guidance ejects the highest 850s to our west, but the euro does try to pull in some higher numbers later in the week. ..yeah, see above. 4) GFS still brings big heat on lower 850s, but that’s more dubious as over mixing could limit true high temperature potential. ...It's sort of like offsetting errors. It may be not warm enough at 850, while also being overly mixed. Bit of an art to that Is that the gist of it? Do we also care about 700 or 925mb temps? The most importance is determining the top of the mixing layer/BL termination into the gradient wind. That level's temperature, provided well mixed, can be dry adiabatically assumed to the surface with higher confidence. If that is 700 ... it's 700. If 925...925. If 850, 925 is intrinsically "mixed out" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 15 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: GFS is an absolute furnace next week. PWM the hottest spot in the Northeast? Not impossible, but from this distance the chance looks indistinguishable from zero. Of course, when CAR tied its all-time hottest day (96) on May 22, 1977, it was tied with Phoenix as the hottest reported temp in the US that day. Edit: 103 is PWM's hottest temp on record, set on "Hot Saturday", 8/2/75. Logan had 102/83 that day, for the tallest daily mean there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm always amazed at how much confidence people have in record temps when the prog is like 5+ days out. In this case...an all time monthly high for BGR. This heat wave ended up a max of 96° at BDL and 98° at BOS. Still hot, but not well into the 100s. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 50 minutes ago, kdxken said: Totally unscientific but today has the feel and sound of some good storms on the way. Looks like a good chance tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Complete grid failure coming . https://x.com/billkarins/status/1801400584542540072?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Stay cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radiator Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Complete grid failure coming . https://x.com/billkarins/status/1801400584542540072?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg I will be doing my part next week by running my new-ish portable air conditioner. BTW, I was not paying close attention to the forecast, thinking that any rain would hold off until later this afternoon, and so I was taken by surprise to hear the heavy rain that moved in a short time ago. Hoping that we still get some thunderstorm activity later on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 14 Share Posted June 14 57 minutes ago, dendrite said: This heat wave ended up a max of 96° at BDL and 98° at BOS. Still hot, but not well into the 100s. Mm ..this isn't ten days away, though. Just sayn' I get what you mean and agree in principle, but we're also getting multi guidance support now for 101's out of a D6 lead. Of course, you said "WELL into the 100s" which qualifying that remark ...hovering around 99.5 falls a bit short. heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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