metagraphica Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 3:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Dews up temps down Expand Do the dews!! Let's go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 3:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Dews up temps down Expand 100/50 would be more fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 the rainfall totals in southern Florida are absolutely insane. High risk for FF today too. Scary wording 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 13, 2024 Author Share Posted June 13, 2024 Coc in Eastham 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 4:45 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: 100/50 would be more fun. Expand Will you need to cut ponytail to stay cool? Get it up off back? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 4:47 PM, weatherwiz said: the rainfall totals in southern Florida are absolutely insane. High risk for FF today too. Scary wording Expand I have a friend that lives near KFLL and they say the flooding is insane. Even with the breaks there is nowhere for the water to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 4:52 PM, Torch Tiger said: Coc in Eastham Expand Right near First Encounter Beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 12z gfs is back in the big heat sweepstakes . 6 day major heat wave peaking next Wednesday through Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 3:54 PM, CoastalWx said: Might mix out dews at times next week. Expand I hear ya and it’s more likely with the over the top NW flow, but I’ll believe the intensity of that heat plume with that amount of mixing if we can get it to d3 with few changes. But we’re arguing semantics. It’s going to be hot either way barring modeling failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 5:28 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: 12z gfs is back in the big heat sweepstakes . 6 day major heat wave peaking next Wednesday through Friday. Expand I'm late on everything ( had to actually go into the office today which sucks up all my model time for traffic - ) ... but from what I saw over lunch re the last 18 hours-worth of guidance, this was still trending straight through to what I've seen so far of this 12z run cycle. The 00z EPS was just damn mean looking. The Euro operational likely has company among it's various members. The mean is over 597 ... I did get a statement in earlier re the 00z Euro's 850 mb layer being more evidenced of an actual SW Heat Release injecting into the ridge - that's the red flag for taking a seasonal heat wave and sending it... how far? There's still time to back off, but I suspect the baseline is just that... at minimum a seasonal heat wave ( 91 ... 93 )/70 ... I suspect the DPs are not handled entirely right, particularly in the Euro - unless there's been some improvement, the model tends to over mix. What's also interesting about the overmix aspect is that it doesn't really calculate a 2-meter temperature - if one looks at the sounding as it terminates into the boundary layer, it clearly stops the extrapolations at 1000mb ( or equiv sigma ) level. So one has to juggle a bit... Assume 3 F than 102 at Beford Ma become 105, which is a better match for 850 mb/23.5C, but then inject more DP... and we get 98/72 or so... Which is dangerous if things ceiling that high in this thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 Widespread black and brownouts next week with record energy demand? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 4:47 PM, weatherwiz said: the rainfall totals in southern Florida are absolutely insane. High risk for FF today too. Scary wording Expand Tornado in my old town of Stuart (Hobe Sound) yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 5:30 PM, dendrite said: I hear ya and it’s more likely with the over the top NW flow, but I’ll believe the intensity of that heat plume with that amount of mixing if we can get it to d3 with few changes. But we’re arguing semantics. It’s going to be hot either way barring modeling failure. Expand Yeah I'm not buying like 101 in BOS yet...but maybe U90s if we mix out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 5:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Widespread black and brownouts next week with record energy demand? Expand 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 Please think about the potted plants during this time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 BDL will put up a 90 today. HFD at 84 currently and my house is 83.2° after a high of 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 8:20 PM, WxWatcher007 said: BDL will put up a 90 today. HFD at 84 currently and my house is 83.2° after a high of 85. Expand BD(HEL)L 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 13, 2024 Author Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 5:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Right near First Encounter Beach? Expand Not sure honestly, that view was facing west towards CC bay though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 13, 2024 Author Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 5:39 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Widespread black and brownouts next week with record energy demand? Expand Yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 8:27 PM, dendrite said: BD(HEL)L Expand Seems a little hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 Winter storm watches in Montana 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 The heat is perfectly timed! Schools out, pools in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted June 13, 2024 Author Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 9:22 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: The heat is perfectly timed! Schools out, pools in! Expand congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 9:41 PM, Torch Tiger said: congrats! Expand Still need to be there until the 18th but then, let the pigeons loose! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 GFS is an absolute furnace next week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 10:28 PM, WxWatcher007 said: GFS is an absolute furnace next week. Expand Higher end potential verbatim .. keeps low lvl flow more out of the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 10:31 PM, ma blizzard said: Higher end potential verbatim .. keeps low lvl flow more out of the west Expand Definitely. The panels for next Friday are just absurd lol. Good luck with three consecutive June days here over 100. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 Just seeing both ensembles with a mean 597 overhead in June is incredible. How likely would it be that the ridge is significantly weaker in amplitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 10:35 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Definitely. The panels for next Friday are just absurd lol. Good luck with three consecutive June days here over 100. Expand Thursday looks particularly brutal. Gets to 91 by noon. By the end of the day heat index tops 110. Hopefully it won't come about. I put down the saws whenever the heat index gets over a hundred. No need for a stroke... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2024 Share Posted June 13, 2024 On 6/13/2024 at 9:01 PM, Torch Tiger said: Yes! Expand You can see it coming even this far out. A lot of posters here will lose power for a few day period during hottest period of lives. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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