June 2024 Obs/Disco

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's funny ( perhaps in a not so ha-ha way ...) how if anything, I've noted the 2-meter temperature renditions for all operational models in the D4+ range, are almost always NOT representing the actual 2-meter temperature. They seem to stop the extrapolations short of the real surface, stranding the high temperatures as much as 4-6 below what the synoptic metrics would arguable support.  < D4 this is less obviously so, but they are always too cold at the surface in winter cold loading events, and too cold in the summer during heat loading for time periods beyond.  Not sure why...

The Euro has 23.5C over NYC D9 or around then, with WSW wind coming from Pheonix AZ, under a 850 mb Sonoran thermal shock ...   97     That's like a 810 mb to surface BL mixing depth and probably a 104 if all that other juggernaut sets up like that.   It does put up a 102 on D10.  

Obviously, we're talking about a prediction from this time range - we're just running over the parametric gunk.

I think the warmer levels make it to NYC and maybe SW CT and gets damped the further NE you go. We will see how it pans out; models were showing mid 90’s for this coming weekend and now seem to be back off of those temps

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

We've been hearing these tales of unrelenting heat since the beginning of March. Maybe it'll actually happen this time lolz...

It’s coming 

[Typhoon Tip]

Did anyone else notice this sneaky oddity ?

576 nodal heights over the North Pole -

[Typhoon Tip]

[forkyfork]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

We've been hearing these tales of unrelenting heat since the beginning of March. Maybe it'll actually happen this time lolz...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Shocking. It’s going to be hot around the Solstice, who would’ve guessed?

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

I think the warmer levels make it to NYC and maybe SW CT and gets damped the further NE you go. We will see how it pans out; models were showing mid 90’s for this coming weekend and now seem to be back off of those temps

Too early for me to 'think' or suspect one way or the other.  This is maxing out on D9 or 10 in the guidance that don't show a transitive heat suppression, like the GFS ( which always does come shit or shine, anyway...).  Which D9 or 10 is inherently less reliable - though that can be offset some by heavy signal suggestions... Still, 10 days away isn't really helpful to determinism. 

The idea here at this range is only that we have a robust signal for warmer than normal pattern evolution over the eastern mid latitudes.  I will add that the heat in the foreground ( this weekend...) I had not been paying much attention to.  The pattern didn't draw my attention to being very important in that regard, all along, as it looks like seasonal maintenance oscillation with a warm thrust head of a cool front.   Convection?  why not.  If it got a bit touchy with heat and humidity for transient time of it, it's not worth tracking error as far as how much - welcome to June.  

The thing later next week has multi source telecon and multi source synoptic cinema backing.  But we've seen this in the past end up just being a warm sector.  We have to keep in mind as fellow nerds and dorks ( haha ...) no one cares so why are we talking about this?  But beyond that ... the models tend to exaggerate everything in that range.   It's an interesting adaptation by the technology, et al, because big events, hot cold wet or white, tend to also materialize at longer time leads than said maintenance or garden variety departures.   The upshot being ... the models will seldom miss big dawgs that way. It's just that they cry wolf, too

[CoastalWx]

Thursday and especially Friday look hot. 

[forkyfork]

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Shocking. It’s going to be hot around the Solstice, who would’ve guessed?

you average 90s around the solstice? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Shocking. It’s going to be hot around the Solstice, who would’ve guessed?

90's is hot any time of year, but definitely in June....that is more likely in July/August.

[Typhoon Tip]

40 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Shocking. It’s going to be hot around the Solstice, who would’ve guessed?

It's a trivial symbolism, really.  To actually have a big heat signal land on the most intense solar week of the solar calendar year. I mentioned it for the sardonic value.

There's nothing particularly qualifying beyond that. 

Although ... hm, as an afterthought, there's a reason why our big dawg numbers tend to happen post July 10.  I bet if we graphed all the heat waves ( regardless of their notoriety or extremeness in the scalar sense) we'd find that the inter quartile density is probably between July 20 and August 10 or something like that.  I may not be wrong - heh...admittedly anecdotal.  But I've experienced too many busted heat wave forecasts and or unintended butt bang intrusions from the Maritimes due to poorly modeled circulation modes in Mays through early July's to believe that higher sun angles actually coincide with big heat around here ( our version of what big heat is...). By the time the mid summer arrives, those weird last minute ghosts of the previous cold season all but completely vanquish from the hemisphere, allowing the fragility of heat to succeed.

 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

90's is hot any time of year, but definitely in June....that is more likely in July/August.

We’ve seen the monthly departures at ORH and BDL cool off to only +5 to +6… need to get them back up to the baseline of +8 or so.

It’s just absolutely wild how warm it’s been for so long back to last November.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

We’ve seen the monthly departures at ORH and BDL cool off to only +5 to +6… need to get them back up to the baseline of +8 or so.

It’s just absolutely wild how warm it’s been for so long back to last November.

and it has nothing to do with climate change, either.      ...amazing

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

and it has nothing to do with climate change, either.      ...amazing

This trough produced two +1 days at BDL.  It’s wild to me that we needed that trough just to get near what temperatures should be at this time of year.

I do hope we can see a legit like 5 day period averaging like -5 departures again sometime to see the reactions.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This trough produced two +1 days at BDL.  It’s wild to me that we needed that trough just to get near what temperatures should be at this time of year.

I do hope we can see a legit like 5 day period averaging like -5 departures again sometime to see the reactions.

Boom!

You may recall, you and I lamented this probability about 9 days ago.  I distinctly remember writing one of my patented tl;dr to make what is actually just a small point ... how  '..It probably won't be as cold as that looks when it verifies' - or phrase to that affect.  I think you replied, '...yeah I doubt it actually gets as cold as that looks and we'll find a way to somehow be above normal anyway'

Not sure what the significance about the above paragraphs is  oh yeah, I was going say, it seems this is more dependable now than folks are aware?   Even the cold snaps in winter get shirked by 4 to 7 worth... and the nominal "between pattern temperature" seems to always just base around 1C above normal

[Damage In Tolland]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thursday and especially Friday look hot. 

Phone app forecasts and their users FTL

[kdxken]

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thursday and especially Friday look hot. 

Worry about it if it ever happens. Until that time...

 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

We're in the +2.5 to +3.5 color, close to the Over +3.5.  That's significant for a 3-month period, but it's been more lack of cold than any big heat.  Temps have been mostly meh.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1800132969404743803?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

We're in the +2.5 to +3.5 color, close to the Over +3.5.  That's significant for a 3-month period, but it's been more lack of cold than any big heat.  Temps have been mostly meh.

Like the boiling frog myth… just a slow steady rise but nothing earth-shattering.  Just the most mundane way to get ridiculous departures.

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Like the boiling frog myth… just a slow steady rise but nothing earth-shattering.  Just the most mundane way to get ridiculous departures.

It's how Gaia gets rid of the problem     I've written that in the past, my self, to muse and ponder how humanity cannot seem to see the wild fire through the weeds - but since they created the blaze, it's apropos, perhaps karmic that we "toad" ourselves off the planet.  Wouldn't it be interesting if it was all just another way among many in which the planet seems to have a self-correcting mechanism...   and we are about to be                          corrected     Only in our conceits we seem to carry on with this quasi notion as though we're not a part of the natural order of this world; we are spectators making interesting observations along the way.  We've only created this illusion of proxy over nature, yet are still inexorably connected to its various correcting schemes-   It's almost funny

...I like the metaphor of turning up the heat cycle on the oven to 'clean it' too as a different take

"Can't see the field through weeds"  ... Humans, like all other life on this planet, really respond most proportionately to that which is directly sensible through the five:  sight, sound, hearing, touch and taste.   If advice does not immediately appeal to at least one of thase, to wit climate change does not appeal to any of them spanning daily existential life, the "risk" isn't perceivable. Thus, designated for philosophy rather than action.  That is the metaphor to the toad's oblivion. 

What's fascinating about that ... humans are the most intellectually capable of predicting the future as a series of related consequences - it seems there's a war being waged between that evolutionary advantage, and the evolutionary advantage of innovation - which got us macro profligate 'entitlement' to resource using Industrial mechanized piggery.  haha

[tamarack]

On 6/9/2024 at 8:43 AM, kdxken said:

You put the bug in my ear to measure some of my trees. Can you please repost your measurements. Biggest / oldest seems to be a white oak at around 12 ft in circumference. Using the growth rate charts I found puts it at around 190 years. Although I couldn't find the growth rate for black locust. Have one a little over 12 ft. 

 

I've posted enough measurements that I'm not sure which ones that interest you, so I'll toss out some thoughts.  I'm wary of formula aging, as site/competition have huge effects.  The hemlock cookie in our toolshed is 21" diameter with over 400 rings and was taken 10-12 feet above the stump (tree was horizontal when sampled) as decay had eaten the center closer to the ground.  It came from the Scraggly Lake Public Land, just northeast from Baxter Park.  In contrast, some years back I took a core from a 16" dbh living hemlock in southern Maine and was shocked to count only 44 rings, as the tree was in the intermediate level with closed canopy white pines 30 feet taller.  When I worked up north, I cored a 17" dbh red spruce in a dense stand in T15R13 WELS, over 200 sq.ft. basal area, and found 57 rings, less than half of what I expected.  The only "formula" I've found that seemed to work was on the 80 acres of old growth mixedwood (primarily hemlock, sugar maple and red spruce) a quarter mile north of where I cut that cookie.  The hemlock in that stand all seemed to have about 11 rings per diameter inch.  (I suspect the biggest ones - 30-40" dbh) wouldn't fit that ratio as well as the 20-30" ones.)  In the timber-managed stands adjacent to the old growth, I cut cookies of 200-year-old-plus hemlock and spruce stumps 35 years ago, providing them to a U. Maine silviculture professor who was looking for evidence of past spruce budworm outbreaks.

Other old stumps I've measured include 412 years on a northern white cedar on 17-12 (just west of Allagash) and a 400+ white pine, I think on the same township.  Also, I sampled a black spruce on 18-11 (NW from Allagash) in an old oxbow of the Little Black River.  It was only 3" diameter where I cut it about knee high, and I had to make the axe cut on the bias to count the rings, all 180 of them.  Of course, the oxbow had become a spruce-tamarack bog with few nutrients.

Biggest tree I've actually measured (in 1991) was a 96" dbh silver maple in the flood plain of the Penobscot East Branck just south of where Wassataquiok Stream enters.  It was kind of an ugly but massive thing, dividing into 5 separate 20-35" stems about 9 feet above the ground, and far from round - about 10 feet by 6 feet.  It was about 100 feet tall with crown spread at least that great and was measured at 98" in 1996.  The above noted professor and his forestry professor looked for the tree, unsuccessfully, last winter.  The flood plain is extensive, and I may have given an erroneous guess as to the tree's location.  Also, I think that the tree might be vulnerable to a heavy wet snow.

Apologies for writing a book.  If you were looking for other measurements, please let me know.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I've posted enough measurements that I'm not sure which ones that interest you, so I'll toss out some thoughts.  I'm wary of formula aging, as site/competition have huge effects.  The hemlock cookie in our toolshed is 21" diameter with over 400 rings and was taken 10-12 feet above the stump (tree was horizontal when sampled) as decay had eaten the center closer to the ground.  It came from the Scraggly Lake Public Land, just northeast from Baxter Park.  In contrast, some years back I took a core from a 16" dbh living hemlock in southern Maine and was shocked to count only 44 rings, as the tree was in the intermediate level with closed canopy white pines 30 feet taller.  When I worked up north, I cored a 17" dbh red spruce in a dense stand in T15R13 WELS, over 200 sq.ft. basal area, and found 57 rings, less than half of what I expected.  The only "formula" I've found that seemed to work was on the 80 acres of old growth mixedwood (primarily hemlock, sugar maple and red spruce) a quarter mile north of where I cut that cookie.  The hemlock in that stand all seemed to have about 11 rings per diameter inch.  (I suspect the biggest ones - 30-40" dbh) wouldn't fit that ratio as well as the 20-30" ones.)  In the timber-managed stands adjacent to the old growth, I cut cookies of 200-year-old-plus hemlock and spruce stumps 35 years ago, providing them to a U. Maine silviculture professor who was looking for evidence of past spruce budworm outbreaks.

Other old stumps I've measured include 412 years on a northern white cedar on 17-12 (just west of Allagash) and a 400+ white pine, I think on the same township.  Also, I sampled a black spruce on 18-11 (NW from Allagash) in an old oxbow of the Little Black River.  It was only 3" diameter where I cut it about knee high, and I had to make the axe cut on the bias to count the rings, all 180 of them.  Of course, the oxbow had become a spruce-tamarack bog with few nutrients.

Biggest tree I've actually measured (in 1991) was a 96" dbh silver maple in the flood plain of the Penobscot East Branck just south of where Wassataquiok Stream enters.  It was kind of an ugly but massive thing, dividing into 5 separate 20-35" stems about 9 feet above the ground, and far from round - about 10 feet by 6 feet.  It was about 100 feet tall with crown spread at least that great and was measured at 98" in 1996.  The above noted professor and his forestry professor looked for the tree, unsuccessfully, last winter.  The flood plain is extensive, and I may have given an erroneous guess as to the tree's location.  Also, I think that the tree might be vulnerable to a heavy wet snow.

Apologies for writing a book.  If you were looking for other measurements, please let me know.

How did you get into this field? Was it always an interest for you?

[Cyclone-68]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Did anyone else notice this sneaky oddity ?

576 nodal heights over the North Pole -

 

Even Santa is trying to steal our severe. Incredible

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

I've posted enough measurements that I'm not sure which ones that interest you, so I'll toss out some thoughts.  I'm wary of formula aging, as site/competition have huge effects.  The hemlock cookie in our toolshed is 21" diameter with over 400 rings and was taken 10-12 feet above the stump (tree was horizontal when sampled) as decay had eaten the center closer to the ground.  It came from the Scraggly Lake Public Land, just northeast from Baxter Park.  In contrast, some years back I took a core from a 16" dbh living hemlock in southern Maine and was shocked to count only 44 rings, as the tree was in the intermediate level with closed canopy white pines 30 feet taller.  When I worked up north, I cored a 17" dbh red spruce in a dense stand in T15R13 WELS, over 200 sq.ft. basal area, and found 57 rings, less than half of what I expected.  The only "formula" I've found that seemed to work was on the 80 acres of old growth mixedwood (primarily hemlock, sugar maple and red spruce) a quarter mile north of where I cut that cookie.  The hemlock in that stand all seemed to have about 11 rings per diameter inch.  (I suspect the biggest ones - 30-40" dbh) wouldn't fit that ratio as well as the 20-30" ones.)  In the timber-managed stands adjacent to the old growth, I cut cookies of 200-year-old-plus hemlock and spruce stumps 35 years ago, providing them to a U. Maine silviculture professor who was looking for evidence of past spruce budworm outbreaks.

Other old stumps I've measured include 412 years on a northern white cedar on 17-12 (just west of Allagash) and a 400+ white pine, I think on the same township.  Also, I sampled a black spruce on 18-11 (NW from Allagash) in an old oxbow of the Little Black River.  It was only 3" diameter where I cut it about knee high, and I had to make the axe cut on the bias to count the rings, all 180 of them.  Of course, the oxbow had become a spruce-tamarack bog with few nutrients.

Biggest tree I've actually measured (in 1991) was a 96" dbh silver maple in the flood plain of the Penobscot East Branck just south of where Wassataquiok Stream enters.  It was kind of an ugly but massive thing, dividing into 5 separate 20-35" stems about 9 feet above the ground, and far from round - about 10 feet by 6 feet.  It was about 100 feet tall with crown spread at least that great and was measured at 98" in 1996.  The above noted professor and his forestry professor looked for the tree, unsuccessfully, last winter.  The flood plain is extensive, and I may have given an erroneous guess as to the tree's location.  Also, I think that the tree might be vulnerable to a heavy wet snow.

Apologies for writing a book.  If you were looking for other measurements, please let me know.

Did a couple more today. The other species aren't that big although I haven't hunted too much. 

 

River Birch about 7 ft in circumference and black birch about the same.

[tamarack]

41 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

How did you get into this field? Was it always an interest for you?

My interest in trees, and weather, began when I was in first grade.  The hills west and north of NYC had a major ice storm on Jan. 8-9, 1953 that cut our power for 6 days, and I was utterly fascinated, a fascination that continues today.  We lived in NNJ and our place abutted the protected watershed for a nearby reservoir, such that we had a half mile of unbroken forest to play in.  The dream of a met diploma crashed on the rocks of advanced math and the forestry became my vocation, getting a BS in forest management in Dec. 1975 then started with Seven islands Land Company (managing a major family forest) in Jan. 1976, working in the NW tip of Maine.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

This trough produced two +1 days at BDL.  It’s wild to me that we needed that trough just to get near what temperatures should be at this time of year.

I do hope we can see a legit like 5 day period averaging like -5 departures again sometime to see the reactions.

and yet there's still some out there who don't believe we are warming or that it's no big thing

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

90's is hot any time of year, but definitely in June....that is more likely in July/August.

Of course. We’ll see what plays out.  
95 would be anomalous but a few days of 90-91 wouldn’t be out of the ordinary 3rd week of June.  That’s all I was inferring with my sarcasm.

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

and yet there's still some out there who don't believe we are warming or that it's no big thing

Somewhere in western CT a winter predator howls in anger…

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This trough produced two +1 days at BDL.  It’s wild to me that we needed that trough just to get near what temperatures should be at this time of year.

I do hope we can see a legit like 5 day period averaging like -5 departures again sometime to see the reactions.

Last 3 days had little sun, averaged 64/55, and produced a mere 0.64" as the juicy stuff missed here.  However, it was near perfect for all the garden planting done on Tues/Wed last week.