June 2024 Obs/Disco

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I don’t think people know what it’ll feel like if we actually get a -3 type month.  Ice age stuff.

And these are on the recent normals too, the 1980-2010 set would be even more.

That may never happen again…

[powderfreak]

52 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That may never happen again…

Not right now.  An entire month of -3F seems absolutely unfathomable.

86F here in the valley today.  Average high is 71F.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Might be white pine blister rust, though the lower pic looks odd, with browning branches all around below a green top.

With the rust does the whole tree discolor at the same time usually? And thanks

[Ginx snewx]

Was in SWRI today Holy heck on the white winter moth Damage to Beeches 

[Chrisrotary12]

Where do I need to move to have a summer of today? Naples, ME? Further up and in?

[Typhoon Tip]

Getting increasingly concerned for significant heat mid month. 

Wholesale telecon collapse in all major ensemble systems wrt +PNA ….possible even a mode reversal.  Mode flipping PNA to negative PNA is the eastern North America loading pattern for big heat.  Meanwhile the distant “probability Horizon” of the operational runs are starting to pick up on the scaffolding for southwest heat release timing well with that numerical suggestion above.  

A week of +PNA first though… Which I’m not even sure how much it’s gonna cool off because it looks like the vortex stretches and elongates north of us really and that’s going to block the cold from actually getting around and underneath. Maybe more seasonal with thunderstorm risks
 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Was in SWRI today Holy heck on the white winter moth Damage to Beeches 

It's likely this. If it was winter moths they would have eaten the maples as well. 

"Beech leaf disease (BLD) affects and kills both native and ornamental beech tree species"

[kdxken]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting increasingly concerned for significant heat mid month. 

Wholesale telecon collapse in all major ensemble systems wrt +PNA ….possible even a mode reversal.  Mode flipping PNA to negative PNA is the eastern North America loading pattern for big heat.  Meanwhile the distant “probability Horizon” of the operational runs are starting to pick up on the scaffolding for southwest heat release timing well with that numerical suggestion above.  

A week of +PNA first though… Which I’m not even sure how much it’s gonna cool off because it looks like the vortex stretches and elongates north of us really and that’s going to block the cold from actually getting around and underneath. Maybe more seasonal with thunderstorm risks
 

I think folks will be ready for it. After tomorrow it looks pretty crappy for a while. 

"

Our weather pattern then changes to a cloudy
and more unsettled outlook by Thursday and continuing into
early next week. Widespread rain showers and embedded
thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage for Friday into Monday then becomes more scattered with
some dry periods at times. Temperatures trend slightly cooler
than normal.

[HoarfrostHubb]

 Bring on the heat after June 17

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

It's likely this. If it was winter moths they would have eaten the maples as well. 

"Beech leaf disease (BLD) affects and kills both native and ornamental beech tree species"

No it was maples too. But beaches were wiped out

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting increasingly concerned for significant heat mid month. 

Wholesale telecon collapse in all major ensemble systems wrt +PNA ….possible even a mode reversal.  Mode flipping PNA to negative PNA is the eastern North America loading pattern for big heat.  Meanwhile the distant “probability Horizon” of the operational runs are starting to pick up on the scaffolding for southwest heat release timing well with that numerical suggestion above.  

A week of +PNA first though… Which I’m not even sure how much it’s gonna cool off because it looks like the vortex stretches and elongates north of us really and that’s going to block the cold from actually getting around and underneath. Maybe more seasonal with thunderstorm risks
 

This post in the winter discussing a possible mid-month favorable snow and cold set-up… I’m like nahh not gonna happen and look at it skeptically.

Here in the summer, I read it and I’m like yeah it’ll probably absolutely torch at least excuse possible… totally happening. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

34 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

 Bring on the heat after June 17

Maybe

[rimetree]

So now when there's a favorable model run and say, "I ran that out of my basement", it'll actually be true...

https://arstechnica.com/ai/2024/06/as-a-potentially-historic-hurricane-season-looms-can-ai-forecast-models-help/

 

[Torch Tiger]

Mid-summer vibe early June.  Take

[kdxken]

Hopefully we get lucky during the upcoming unsettled period. Always a crap shoot this time of year.

 

[CoastalWx]

59 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Hopefully we get lucky during the upcoming unsettled period. Always a crap shoot this time of year.

 

Doesn’t look too bad in SNE outside of tomorrow. More shitty in NNE.

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn’t look too bad in SNE outside of tomorrow. More shitty in NNE.

Glad we he not thee 

[dendrite]

16 hours ago, kdxken said:

Seeing this quite a bit on smallish pines ( 5 to 10 in in diameter) . Any thoughts? Thanks in advance.

I’m seeing a lot of this as well. This one on the edge of my woods has gone all brown. Maybe it’s just shedding. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Shower with big drops coming through ... Satellite suggests this is a cluster of elevated/nocturnally driven convection .. which in theory it dissolves as the sun pummels the cloud tops and kills the radiative -related cooling mechanics... [ blah blah enter popsicle headache here ]

I was watching some local forecasters on the TV at the gym at 5 yesterday and they had 86-88 F for highs today.  Three towns away I'm sure one would say sure... but here right now, it may as well be a bad camping trip feel out there.

The same sat loop, combined with what typically happens when these nocturnal convective decays ... both would argue we're partly sunny by 10 and this is a memory, but... we are putting some theta-e into the boundary layer.  SPC has eastern NE in Marginal ...

Just some morning obs -

[Typhoon Tip]

Looking at the stream lines ... NW flow at mid levels with this sort modest but increasingly wet SW flow taking over the region underneath does look interesting for some organization of updrafts.   Hail?

[forkyfork]

when i visit my sister in nw nj i notice sick trees everywhere 

[metagraphica]

Currently dark and dank under a very low layer of clouds (not quite ground fog) with satellite showing mid-level clouds from the SW converging with mid-level clouds from the NE overhead.  65/60.  Not gonna warm up much until this mank goes away.

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, kdxken said:

With the rust does the whole tree discolor at the same time usually? And thanks

BR usually starts on limbs and travels to the trunk, where it kills the cambium layer.  The fungus travels down much more slowly - if you see a sizable white pine with a dead top but many live limbs beneath, likely the top was killed by BR.   If the BR girdling occurs below the live crown, the tree dies. 
There's also been considerable needle drop fungi (3 species IIRC) over the past dozen years that take out the overwintered needles while the new growth is extending, with the old needles usually falling in June.  That weakens the tree, as the established "factory" is destroyed while the tree is building the new one.  The public lot on at Topsham Maine has had considerable pine mortality from this.  A wet spring helps foster those fungi.

[Typhoon Tip]

17 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This post in the winter discussing a possible mid-month favorable snow and cold set-up… I’m like nahh not gonna happen and look at it skeptically.

Here in the summer, I read it and I’m like yeah it’ll probably absolutely torch at least excuse possible… totally happening. 

Kidding aside, there's some suggestion there.   "Increasingly concerned," that may actually be a little too strong for current indicators, but this/may be yet evolving.  There is rising NAO (of uncertain ending magnitude) with falling PNA ( also with uncertain destiny), both occurring on the aft side of +PNA that has a much higher confidence of collapsing to at least neutral  That's close to the leading signal for a warming ejection E over the eastern mid latitude continent.

In concept, the antecedent +PNA traps Sonora-NM-AZ-SW TX region under a sun that by virtue of those environment(s) the air mass is very highly proficient in energy absorption.  Plus, the regional sigma ( elevation in pressure coordinates) places that air mass at a particularly useful altitude for mixing with the lower thickness during diurnal expansion once that air mass is displaced and/or expanse E (evil foreshadow).  That's the prep work...  but then... as the mode of the +PNA relaxes, releases the trap ...and synoptically ejects that highly kinetically charged air mass out of the SW. 

If/when the circulation mode of the +PNA --> -PNA is well-expressed ( the non-hydrostatic heights balloons over the eastern middle latitude continent), as said kinetically charge air mass is injected into it.  The higher non-hydrostratic heights, being symptomatic of DVM at mid levels, lower clouds and adds a compressional aspect ... high solstice or near equivalent high insolation... this/these combined metrics are climatologically shown to produce extremes of temperature ( + ).   

Lately across the globe, where there are other recognizable heat transport routes ( for example, the Saharan air layer injection over the Gibraltar straight/western Mediterranean gets caught up in a western European mid and u/a ridge expansion.  That is how the British Isles down to France and Spain can cook ), these have been over performing.  Modeling may signal a much above normal few days of temperature, but what results is both longer in duration, but maximizing above the guidance suggestion.   These so called 'synergistic heat waves'  ( papered ) are recognizably increasing in frequency.  There have been heat waves across the U.S. every year ... but only 1995 and 2012 are rank-able among these types, and these predate some of the recent hyper extremes that have been occurring.  Are we do ?  

As far as our local region, we have not experienced this here in New England since perhaps 1975 on a single day, but given to the shortness of duration as provided by a brief/transient synoptic circumstance, it seems that was a 'spike' outlier that may not fit the above compendium.  The next time one of these sets up across the Nation, there is probability that it will be unique

 

[eekuasepinniW]

I remember the white pine needlecast from a few years ago following a wet year.

https://extension.unh.edu/sites/default/files/migrated_unmanaged_files/Resource007498_Rep10836.pdf

Sadly it did not kill any of the view obstructing pines near me, just the privacy providing ones. 

[weatherwiz]

Looks like another year my friend and I will get zilch to chase. We've been doing the last week of May and first week of June since 2009 but starting last year we moved it to the first two weeks of June. Hoping for at least some thunder tomorrow. May have stuff over the weekend. At this point just looking for storms, severe isn't happening. 

[NW_of_GYX]

17 hours ago, tamarack said:

Might be white pine blister rust, though the lower pic looks odd, with browning branches all around below a green top.

I think it’s a big shedding event. Seeing it all over southern Maine and eastern New Hampshire. It’s too widespread and sudden to be pest related imo. If it’s needlecast that’s a big deal given how widespread. Most trees will recover 

[BrianW]

14 hours ago, kdxken said:

It's likely this. If it was winter moths they would have eaten the maples as well. 

"Beech leaf disease (BLD) affects and kills both native and ornamental beech tree species"

BLD is decimating the beech's here.

All the beach trees here are either completely dead and the small ones just have leaves that come out then turn brown and die. 

[BrianW]

[Typhoon Tip]

Remember that little sci fi thriller by M. Knight Shiama romma lomma ding dong whatever is name was spelled, called the "Happening" ? 

Basically, the plant fora somehow gets a collective consciousness, one that's had enough of human bullshit and decides its time to eradicate them.  So one fateful afternoon they begin releasing some sort of unknown or undetectable toxin that drives people immediately to kill them selves upon inhalation. 

I like the concept in principle but it didn't really translate very well to the cinema - at least that version of it.  But because I like dystopian themes as an accomplished sci fi author, that sort of biased my grading and I gave the film a pass. 

Anyway, this years choking pollen issue was reminding me of that.  heh. I was all psyched to pull the cycle out of the shed, tune up the chain and air the tires... and hit the bike paths... but earned 3 migraine head episodes and irritable attitude syndrome, along with prickly madness attacking my upper trachea for 2 or 3 days for my trouble.  Pollen can be f'n toxic man.