Torch Tiger Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Summer has arrived and June is (often) NE's best climo month for storms/severe, esp. WNE. With surging heat and dews, hopefully plenty of storms to track! Also the beginning of hurricane season!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 I just really hope the extended GFS is out of whack. It's been doing some funky stuff in the medium-to-long range lately. Not sure if its just behind with the seasonal transition or just struggling to handle (putting too much weight) on some of the teleconnectors which should be losing weight on the overall pattern, structure, and evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Wiz’s NW flow due to a large storm to our northeast is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 5 hours ago, weatherwiz said: I just really hope the extended GFS is out of whack. It's been doing some funky stuff in the medium-to-long range lately. Not sure if its just behind with the seasonal transition or just struggling to handle (putting too much weight) on some of the teleconnectors which should be losing weight on the overall pattern, structure, and evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 Torch!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 25 Share Posted May 25 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Torch!! Probably not to start the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 26 Share Posted May 26 23 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Probably not to start the month. Yea coc kicks off the month. Eventually we’ll pump the dews… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 27 Author Share Posted May 27 EPS/GEFS look unsettled week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 27 Share Posted May 27 2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: EPS/GEFS look unsettled week 2 Yeah, probably no real heat until around the solstice. Which would be climo anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 23 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah, probably no real heat until around the solstice. Which would be climo anyway. Beginning of next week does look warm now. Probably a mile down after that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 28 Share Posted May 28 GFS has a “ring of fire “ set up for is as we head into first part of June. Could be very active 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29 Share Posted May 29 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 @MJO812AWT . Those silly blues faded away to torch https://x.com/jason61987/status/1796080638099063000?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 On 5/24/2024 at 8:24 AM, weatherwiz said: I just really hope the extended GFS is out of whack. It's been doing some funky stuff in the medium-to-long range lately. Not sure if its just behind with the seasonal transition or just struggling to handle (putting too much weight) on some of the teleconnectors which should be losing weight on the overall pattern, structure, and evolution. Yeah it's been rough on summer enthusiasts with these models and the longer ranges. Not really ever yet have we gotten a sense there's real heat lurking out there. And what I've noticed is that it's been different on every run - as though no matter how it gets done, 'must not allow heat'. LOL. I mean it's not like there's a coherent recognizable pattern type that's re-emerging every run. The models are spraying out different reasons. Here's the 12z GFS's latest summer cancellation.... Unfortunately, the +PNA/-NAO in the telecon is also attempting to accelerate to October 15, too. Hell, maybe this summer's doomed before it gets going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah it's been rough on summer enthusiasts with these models and the longer ranges. Not really ever yet have we gotten a sense there there's real heat lurking out there. And what I've noticed is that it's been different on every run - as though no matter how it gets done, 'must not allow heat'. LOL. I mean it's not like there's a coherent recognizable pattern type that's re-emerging every run. The models are spraying out different reasons. Here's the 12z GFS's latest summer cancellation.... Unfortunately, the +PNA/-NAO in the telecon is also attempting to accelerate to October 15, too. Hell, maybe this summer's doomed before it gets going. Is this a staple of transitioning from a stronger Nino episode to a Nina? It just seems very bizarre how there is such little model-to-model and run-to-run agreement or consistency. I know this can happen during the warmer months due to convection which can throw things out of whack but I can't recall seeing it this head scratching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Is this a staple of transitioning from a stronger Nino episode to a Nina? It just seems very bizarre how there is such little model-to-model and run-to-run agreement or consistency. I know this can happen during the warmer months due to convection which can throw things out of whack but I can't recall seeing it this head scratching. Anecdotally it seems there has been an unusual amount of variability even in the D5-D7 range lately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 Warmer look on the EURO next Mon-Wed compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 7 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: Warmer look on the EURO next Mon-Wed compared to the GFS yeah. it's hard to get interested or very enthused though when repeatedly the cinemas keep ending up looking like this out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 it probably wouldn't be as bad as that sort of impressions though. This time of year, the lower troposphere ambience is pretty normalized in all directions ... weak baroclinicity and lacking much gradient below ~ 700 mb, probably lends to much of that just being mid and upper level. Prevents 'big heat' but ... noticing the 2-meter are still 80 or better even when that trough at 500 mb is landing into a negative L/W axis ... To bad there's no early TC off the SE coast, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 30 Share Posted May 30 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: it probably wouldn't be as bad as that sort of impressions though. This time of year, the lower troposphere ambience is pretty normalized in all directions ... weak baroclinicity and lacking much gradient below ~ 700 mb, probably lends to much of that just being mid and upper level. Prevents 'big heat' but ... noticing the 2-meter are still 80 or better even when that trough at 500 mb is landing into a negative L/W axis ... To bad there's no early TC off the SE coast, huh We saw the same thing.. We’ll see if homebrew season will start by mid/late June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 31 Author Share Posted May 31 how about a 38/19/11 type year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: yeah. it's hard to get interested or very enthused though when repeatedly the cinemas keep ending up looking like this out there Ring of fire look though, right? That type of pattern has a persistent deep upper low in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted May 31 Author Share Posted May 31 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 8 hours ago, powderfreak said: Ring of fire look though, right? That type of pattern has a persistent deep low in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys? He had his map of ‘Merika flipped upside down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Hmmmm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 11 hours ago, powderfreak said: Ring of fire look though, right? That type of pattern has a persistent deep upper low in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys? Right. heh And it seems every morning the models are even more aggressively anomalous with creating a butt plugged hemisphere the likes of which would make February's envious ... That said ( "sarcasted" ), I do think there's some possibility that A, the models are over doing it, and B, the lower troposphere may not really really be very well coupled/integrating vertically into those trough meanders - a typical aspect of the sun's enormous normalizing power. It bakes lower Canada almost as much now so it's not like the mechanics are translating abusive fronts anymore. The 2-meter temperatures are still 80 or so in some of these products ... etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right. heh And it seems every morning the models are even more aggressively anomalous with creating a butt plugged hemisphere the likes of which would make February's envious ... That said ( "sarcasted" ), I do think there's some possibility that A, the models are over doing it, and B, the lower troposphere may not really really be very well coupled/integrating vertically into those trough meanders - a typical aspect of the sun's enormous normalizing power. It bakes lower Canada almost as much now so it's not like the mechanics are translating abusive fronts anymore. The 2-meter temperatures are still 80 or so in some of these products ... etc. Yeah I doubt its truly below normal temps. Always take the over these days. This time of year seems to max out the disconnect from upper level trough to surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I doubt its truly below normal temps. Always take the over these days. This time of year seems to max out the disconnect from upper level trough to surface temperatures. At the end of the 12z GGEM it parks a -2 or -3 SD mid/ua low over or just N of Lake Superior with a highly curved flow running underneath that subtends clear to ST Louis yet ... 570 dm thickness to NYC ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31 Share Posted May 31 Torch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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