CheeselandSkies Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 I'll spark the kindling again. Tomorrow snuck up with a 5% contour right over southern Wisconsin, as well as far eastern Iowa and northern IL on the SWODY2 update. CAM solutions vary though; if the HRRR were to verify it looks like the 5% would end up being too far north, with WI mostly getting mid-morning MCS activity (which goes against the forecast from the NWS, which calls for morning sun followed by PM storms). Saturday the focus looks to be mainly west of the sub over in the Plains (Central/Western); but Sunday as mentioned in the general severe thread looks quite interesting and potentially significant; further east and south of the parts of the sub that were impacted on Tuesday although the NAM solution suggests northern IL and even southern WI could be in play again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 23 Author Share Posted May 23 Meanwhile, 18Z 3K NAM wants a Tuesday redux for Wisconsin, with UH tracks extending way north of where SPC has the slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 I think tomorrow looks like a typical slight risk, unless the MCV is stronger and boosts otherwise middling deep layer shear. That definitely can't be ruled out, and interested to see the 00z guidance trends. I suspect the 18z NAMs slowed too much. Sunday has a pretty high ceiling, including within the LOT CWA. Both NAM runs today were scary bad, but outer ranges of the NAM caveats apply. Even on the Euro solution, the morning convection does limit destabilization and probably the magnitude of the threat farther north, likely not enough to preclude brief tornadoes near the sfc low and warm front, though. Farther south, forecast soundings and hodograph shape support an all hazards threat, including potentially strong tornadoes. Given the dynamics at play and time of year, better air mass recovery farther north and a higher end threat are firmly within the realm of plausibility, considering the northward trend of the surface low track. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted May 23 Share Posted May 23 16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I think tomorrow looks like a typical slight risk, unless the MCV is stronger and boosts otherwise middling deep layer shear. That definitely can't be ruled out, and interested to see the 00z guidance trends. I suspect the 18z NAMs slowed too much. Sunday has a pretty high ceiling, including within the LOT CWA. Both NAM runs today were scary bad, but outer ranges of the NAM caveats apply. Even on the Euro solution, the morning convection does limit destabilization and probably the magnitude of the threat farther north, likely not enough to preclude brief tornadoes near the sfc low and warm front, though. Farther south, forecast soundings and hodograph shape support an all hazards threat, including potentially strong tornadoes. Given the dynamics at play and time of year, better air mass recovery farther north and a higher end threat are firmly within the realm of plausibility, considering the northward trend of the surface low track. If I Venmo you $20, can I get at least some thunder this time? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 6 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Meanwhile, 18Z 3K NAM wants a Tuesday redux for Wisconsin, with UH tracks extending way north of where SPC has the slight. Yeah can we not do a repeat of that? It's going to take at least another week to get fully cleaned up here from Tuesday, and with the Crawfish still quite high we are prone rn to any major rainfall. That's honestly my biggest concern atm out of this stretch, as essentially the corridor from Lodi to Doylestown to Fox Lake to Waupun can't take a whole lot more rain after Monday/Tuesday. As well as points west along the Baraboo, although they are still coming off the drought there so its not as bad. If we get unlucky with either total rain amounts or rainfall rates we could be talking some potential issues along the drainages along that corridor come Monday. We have the potential for the biggest flooding event in the area since the Wild Card flooding in October 2019 in my opinion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 idk about severe here today, seems unlikely by feel alone, but hrrr at least tries to get some garden variety into the area with the remnant mcv as apposed to last weeks dry fropa just happy to be involved and staying active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: idk about severe here today, seems unlikely by feel alone, but hrrr at least tries to get some garden variety into the area with the remnant mcv as apposed to last weeks dry fropa just happy to be involved and staying active They got that watch up real early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Garden variety here this morning. Time to flex the rain gear at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 22 minutes ago, King James said: They got that watch up real early it's a nice lil vort, wish it were juicier and/or sunnier but not going to complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Despite all the warnings the NWS is issuing around here this morning, it has been a garden-variety storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: idk about severe here today, seems unlikely by feel alone, but hrrr at least tries to get some garden variety into the area with the remnant mcv as apposed to last weeks dry fropa just happy to be involved and staying active Models are doing abysmally with this morning QLCS. If this one continues packing, it will roll right through the metro before noon. Either way, happy to get the rain. After a couple near misses recently, we have actually turned a bit dry out this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Kind of in contrast to ALEK up north of the city, south by me is pretty warm, humid, and hazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: idk about severe here today, seems unlikely by feel alone, but hrrr at least tries to get some garden variety into the area with the remnant mcv as apposed to last weeks dry fropa just happy to be involved and staying active Looks like HRRR was right yesterday per SPC's 13Z update, ongoing complex and its cold pool will bollox afternoon supercell chances north of IL/WI line. NWS, and the mets at my work were way off predicting a sunny morning with storms holding off till mid/late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 20 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Models are doing abysmally with this morning QLCS. If this one continues packing, it will roll right through the metro before noon. Either way, happy to get the rain. After a couple near misses recently, we have actually turned a bit dry out this way. Rains always come just in time, blessed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Just got the upgrade to enhanced a bit west of Chicagoland. Fully expecting the 60% hatched tor next update, high risk next update 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 70/65 with full sun. Would be disappointed if we don’t get some bangers today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 DVN broad brushing the tornado warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Im expecting the classic NE IL special today: QLCS weakens just before reaching here and also ruins chances for severe later in the day lol SPC seems pretty optimistic regarding this line per MD #927, I wouldn't mind being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Excited for some showers and a cold pool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 39 minutes ago, homedis said: Im expecting the classic NE IL special today: QLCS weakens just before reaching here and also ruins chances for severe later in the day lol SPC seems pretty optimistic regarding this line per MD #927, I wouldn't mind being wrong. Decaying QLCS incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 maybe we wake low if we're lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 1-2 dick punch incoming. Looks like I am less and less likely to see some boomers as this falls apart, and it will hang around long enough to f up my 1pm tee time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Today Northern Illinois into Chicagoland Atmo might be too overturned from the midday MCS. Models that have a robust round 2 later handle the morning MCS poorly, and one simply didn't even initialize it. Back along the Mississippi River could be a different story. As for Chicago, I'm looking forward to midday shelfies with the skyline. Sunday is my main interest. Could start out with a raging MCS too. Difference is that Sunday is a stronger system. After the MCS a second short-wave is progged by most models coming in toward 00Z. Early MCS should leave outflow boundaries. Some will drift south of the synoptic WF and such OFBs would be my main interest to a point. South of I-64 will get away from the best upper support and into questionable terrain. SPC also favors such outflow boundaries for their Sunday Enhanced risk corridor, which I interpret from the WF down to the OFBs. Could also be the most wind reports later. Lincoln, IL mentions the outflow boundaries kind of in passing before getting to the red meat part of the forecast discussion for Sunday. Lincoln, IL discussion looks good for Sunday. ..Forecast soundings (NAM/SREF) Sunday show long, cyclonically curved hodographs along with very steep (>8.5-9.0 C/km) mid level lapse rates supportive of supercells and large hail. 0-1 km bulk shear of 15-25 kt and high SRH (>200 m2/s2) are supportive of supercell tornadoes. Storms should become linear with time with wind then becoming the primary hazard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 line shriveled up like i did swimming in the lake last weekend 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 perked up just enough to give the city a good soak 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Looks like a miss here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Snagged a quick .2” and dried up in time for me to tee off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 24 Author Share Posted May 24 Surprisingly, HRRR is rather insistent over multiple runs that we will get enough destabilization for a renewed severe threat this evening here in southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 36 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Snagged a quick .2” and dried up in time for me to tee off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 24 Share Posted May 24 Flash flood warning prompted for 1-2” of rainfall with ongoing very heavy rain currently. Getting absolutely dumped on. EDIT:almost feels like some training occurring in southern Champaign county, another storm just blew up, with torrential rainfall occurring. What an afternoon to ring in your 35th birthday. rain gauge has 2.5” already 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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