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Tennessee Valley Severe May22-27


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Mesoscale Discussion 0984
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...portions of Middle into eastern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 262042Z - 262145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of middle into
   eastern Tennessee. Large hail is becoming the main concern as storms
   become more supercellular through the afternoon. A couple of
   tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. Either a new WW issuance or
   local expansions of existing watches are needed.

   DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has gradually transitioned to a
   more supercellular mode over the past couple of hours, with a
   dominant supercell recently producing severe hail. Other supercells
   are beginning to form in the warm sector as well, including in spots
   where the airmass remains pristine. Given ample buoyancy/shear and
   the more cellular mode, severe hail will become the main threat over
   Middle into eastern TN over the next few hours, though a couple of
   tornadoes and damaging gusts are still possible. As such, either a
   new WW issuance or expansion of existing watches is needed to
   address the present severe weather scenario.
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   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 320
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   400 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern Arkansas
     Southern Illinois
     Western Kentucky
     East-Central and Southeast Missouri
     Northwest Tennessee

   * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely

   SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms will continue to develop
   across the watch area through this evening. Several tornadoes are
   likely, some of which are expected to be intense. Very large hail is
   also likely, along with the risk for potentially significant
   damaging wind gusts.
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NWS Paducah Forecast Office itself reported the rotating wall cloud associated with the storm

Quote

National Weather Service Paducah KY 651 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 KYC083-145-270015- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0081.000000T0000Z-240527T0015Z/ McCracken KY-Graves KY- 651 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCCRACKEN AND NORTH CENTRAL GRAVES COUNTIES... At 650 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Lone Oak, moving northeast at 30 mph. A rotating wall cloud was observed from the National Weather Service Office in Paducah. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Reidland around 655 PM CDT. This includes Interstate 24 in Kentucky between Mile Markers 11 and 17. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3695 8873 3698 8872 3702 8859 3703 8852 3702 8848 3700 8849 3697 8848 3694 8849 3693 8871 TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 245DEG 27KT 3696 8868 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ CN

 

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24 minutes ago, mob1 said:

This is potentially a violent tornado, hopefully the showers to its south cut off the inflow before it moves into a more populated area. 

Screenshot_20240526-212804.png

This is the same supercell that Paducah NWS Forecast Office had observed with a funnel cloud over an hour ago.

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2 minutes ago, kayman said:

This is the same supercell that Paducah NWS Forecast Office had observed with a funnel cloud over an hour ago.

Yep. I don't know what it is about this part of Kentucky as it has seen its share of long-track, violent tornadoes in recent years. 

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 326
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   940 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Much of Tennessee

   * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 940 PM
     until 500 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A severe squall line will likely move into Tennessee
   tonight.  Embedded supercells and line-embedded mesovortices will
   potentially be capable of tornadoes and severe gusts.  The
   environment will potentially support the risk for strong tornadoes,
   in addition to swaths of severe gusts.
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
956 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

KYC177-270315-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0108.000000T0000Z-240527T0315Z/
Muhlenberg KY-
956 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MUHLENBERG COUNTY...

At 955 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Dunmor, or 12
miles southeast of Central City, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Drakesboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 8691 3709 8690 3708 8693 3712 8712
      3724 8710 3725 8695 3724 8694 3724 8692
      3723 8691 3723 8692 3721 8690 3719 8691
      3718 8689 3718 8692 3714 8693 3711 8689
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 274DEG 45KT 3718 8696

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

JGG
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