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May 16 - June 4, 2024 Severe Weather


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4 hours ago, andyhb said:

No rest for the weary. Saturday (Southern Plains) and Sunday further east are looking pretty impressive on the various 00z model runs.

I'm moving back east from Arizona this weekend, and plans are to be in Amarillo Saturday night and central/east Missouri Sunday night.

Am I good, or might I see some action?

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Mean troughing across the Northwest will allow several disturbances to rotate around its base over the next few days. Expecte severe threats to continue into the weekend from the Plains into parts of the Midwest/Mid-South. 

Today:

A sagging cold front, convectively reinforced across Oklahoma and vicinity as of midday, will be the focus for severe thunderstorm activity today. 

Elevated supercells across central Oklahoma earlier this morning will pose the initial severe threat from southeastern Oklahoma into Arkansas. 
IMG-8773.jpg

The environment south of the front, across much of Texas toward the Arklatex, is already strongly to extremely unstable. With forcing ahead of the cold front impinging on rich low level moisture in place, widespread convective initiation is likely by early afternoon. Although deep layer shear is more than sufficient for organized severe convection, wind profiles suggest mixed storm modes with numerous cell interactions. A few initial supercells are probable across central Texas, SW toward the Rio Grande, but even these storms should tend to grow upscale fairly quickly. 

Thursday: 

Moisture recovery may take a while due to convective overturning from today/tonight. The most likely area for widespread convection during the afternoon will be across the Dakotas into Nebraska, as an upper level disturbance ejects out of the Northern Rockies. A more conditional severe risk may evolve near a dryline from Kansas, southward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. Models vary with convective coverage, but at least isolated convective initiation seems possible.

IMG-8769.png

As a cold front surges southeast Thursday night, it should overtake the dryline in Kansas and shunt appreciable low level moisture south across the Southern Plains.

Friday:

A shortwave is progged to eject from the Central Plains toward the Middle Mississippi Valley. This combined with the surging cold front should push the severe threat into parts of the Midwest, southward toward the Arkansas vicinity. Some severe thunderstorms may once again impact parts of Texas, but with several days of convective overturning and moisture getting pushed south, the threat may be limited.

IMG-8772.gif

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The early initiation with the front surging southward faster than expected, as well as the lack of surface heating beforehand (since we were socked in low clouds), kind of did DFW in as far as not realizing the full potential with this setup.

But it does seem there were plenty of low-end severe hail reports in the northern suburbs (quarter to half-dollar size) thanks to ample elevated instability and vertical shear. So while underperforming, not a total bust.

Also, lightning just struck a transformer here and the power was out for about 15 seconds (it's back on now)

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20 hours ago, Toothache said:

We got smacked with the last hailstorms that went through DFW and it is looking like we may have a fair chance of a repeat. 

Screenshot_20240522_153158_RadarScope.jpg

Ended up seeing 1 hailstone with this storm. Was nothing like the battering 2 weeks ago.

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With regards to the Southern Plains severe threat today:

Focus is along the dryline, although there are mixed signals about storm coverage and longevity. Large scale forcing is modest, over the NW Oklahoma/Kansas portion of the region, but height falls will be somewhat more than areas to the south, where deep layer flow will be stronger.
IMG-8916.jpg

Midday convection across North Texas complicates the forecast to some degree. The western flank may be a focus for intense high precipitation supercell development later. 

The middle area, SW Oklahoma into NW Texas may be where the best overlap of ingredients exists. This is where there seems to be the most model agreement, although augmentation of the environment due to downstream convection cannot be overlooked.

Over western Kansas, there may be a relative minimum in convective coverage. CAMs are mostly void of convection, although a few NAM/WRF members and occasional HRRR runs suggest at isolated convective initiation, somewhere near Dodge City, perhaps near where an effective warm front intersects the dryline. 

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large tornado, by Kosse TX, Marlin TX (as mentioned)

Quote

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON...SOUTHEASTERN LIMESTONE AND EAST CENTRAL
FALLS COUNTIES...

At 702 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located 7 miles northwest of Twin Oak Reservoir, or 18 miles east of
Marlin, moving east at 25 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

 

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4 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Storm chasers saw brief cone tornado near East Duke, Oklahoma

PDS warning with that now. Looks beautiful on radar as well. 

 

Surprisingly active day 

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Mesoscale Discussion 0918
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0733 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

   Areas affected...Southwestern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 295...

   Valid 240033Z - 240130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 295 continues.

   SUMMARY...A dangerous, tornadic supercell is expected to continue
   slowly moving ESE across Jackson County, and as far south as the Red
   River over the next hour.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery from KFDR indicates VROT has
   increased to 90-105 kt within an ongoing, confirmed tornado located
   just west of Olustee, OK (southwest of Altus). The extremely
   unstable environment downstream of this strong to violent tornado
   will continue to favor tornadogensis, where SSE sustained surface
   winds around 20 to 25 kt will enhance localized surface vorticity.

   ..Barnes.. 05/24/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34429971 34689979 34889951 34709905 34589867 34469859
               34189856 34069888 33989911 33999941 34169960 34429971 
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vere Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

OKC055-065-075-141-240115-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0127.000000T0000Z-240524T0115Z/
Jackson OK-Kiowa OK-Tillman OK-Greer OK-
757 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
JACKSON...SOUTH CENTRAL KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN
GREER COUNTIES...

At 757 PM CDT, a storm with a history of significant tornadoes was
just southwest of Altus, moving northeast at 20 mph. An additional
tornado was located between Altus and Duke with erratic motion.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and tennis ball size hail.

SOURCE...Broadcast media confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Altus, Olustee, Martha, Headrick, Friendship, Altus Air Force Base,
Humphreys, and Duke.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
storm shelter, safe room, or an interior room on the lowest floor of
a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3455 9954 3467 9957 3474 9953 3477 9908
      3447 9916
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 248DEG 18KT 3462 9937

TORNADO...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.50 IN
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So after having those intense storms stew all day just south of DFW, we now see brand new intense storms blow up just north of DFW. But somehow, DFW itself still manages to dodge any real activity.

What a season...

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