kayman Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 Quote SPC AC 081645 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS EASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear likely from parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Plains. All severe hazards, including tornadoes, very large to giant hail, and potentially significant damaging winds are possible. Some tornadoes may be strong. ...Ozarks to Mid Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A complex, partially mesoscale-driven forecast is apparent for the Ozarks eastward into the lower OH/TN Valleys. A morning thunderstorm complex over TN has draped an outflow boundary --western portion of it advancing northward-- across the lower TN/OH Valleys. A very moist/unstable airmass is located along and south of the boundary across the MS Valley, with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s contributing to a very unstable airmass (2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). A strong belt of southwesterly 500-mb flow extending through the base of a mid-upper level low over the north-central High Plains, will remain overhead from the southern Great Plains east-northeast into the Mid South/OH Valley. Ongoing severe storm cluster late this morning will likely expand in convective coverage over eastern MO into western TN/KY through the mid afternoon. Supercells potentially capable of tornadoes, a few of which may be strong, and large to very large hail and significant severe gusts are possible with this activity. Have adjusted (lowered) severe probabilities on the northern periphery of the risk area given expected concentration of thunderstorms and associated severe to favor the corridor in the vicinity of the boundary. Eventual upscale growth is expected later today into tonight as this activity moves east-southeast with an accompanying swath of wind damage. ...Eastern OK to AR, Mid-South and central TX... Thunderstorms should develop by mid-late afternoon near the front and dryline, as a combination of lift along those boundaries and strong surface heating combine with very rich low-level moisture to erode the cap. Once storms initiate, rapid evolution to supercells is expected. Forecast soundings in the OK/AR/MO border area show very large CAPE and elongated hodographs. Large to giant hail and tornadoes will be the primary hazards early in the convective life cycle. Have extended the 10-percent significant tornado probabilities into far southwest MO, northwest AR, and far eastern OK. There is some signal for upscale growth to occur this evening across AR with an MCS moving east across the Mid South. Have adjusted severe-wind probabilities farther south to account for this potential scenario. Farther southwest, lower storm coverage is expected across the TX/Arklatex. However, steep lapse rates and 70s dewpoints will contribute to extreme MLCAPE. Although near-surface flow generally will be 10 kt or less, limiting lowest-km hodographs/shear, effective-shear magnitudes in the 40-55-kt range indicate supercells will be possible. These will be capable of very large/destructive hail exceeding 3 inches in diameter. Clusters or upscale mergers of convection also may offer deep, precip-loaded, hail-cooled downdrafts with locally severe gusts. Cell mergers and interactions with boundaries will factor into tornado potential on the storm scale, since the environmental low-level shear appears on the margins. ...Southern Appalachians/Cumberland Plateau into Carolinas... Ongoing strong to severe thunderstorm cluster over the eastern TN will likely continue to develop to the east-southeast during the afternoon. The airmass will continue to destabilize downstream across the western Carolinas. Scattered strong to severe gusts (55-70 mph) will be capable of wind damage. A few of the stronger cells may also pose a large hail threat. Additional storms are possible east over the Piedmont and into portions of the coastal plain this afternoon into the early evening. An attendant severe risk may accompany the stronger storms. Later tonight, an MCS or several smaller-scale bows are forecast to move east-southeast along the instability gradient forecast to remain draped across the Mid South. Moist/unstable conditions will support a continued risk for damaging gusts moving into northern AL/southern Middle TN into northern GA late tonight. ...Northeastern CONUS... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over parts of eastern NY and New England. A diurnally destabilizing airmass will become weakly unstable (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of a prefrontal surface trough. Ample deep-layer shear attendant to a Northeast U.S. shortwave trough, will act to organize updrafts. A mix of multicell and modest supercell characteristics are forecast before activity moves over more-stable air and/or offshore, and weakens by early evening. Isolated hail/damaging gusts are the primary expected hazards. ...Eastern SD to eastern IA and vicinity... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are possible from early afternoon in western parts to evening closer to the Mississippi River, with isolated damaging gusts, large hail and possibly a tornado or two. Activity should form in an area of deep-layer lift (including low-level convergence/mass response) related to a vorticity lobe in the southeastern part of the mid/upper-level cyclone. Associated cooling aloft will combine with residual low-level moisture (dewpoints mid 40s to mid 50s F) to yield pockets of around 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Backed low-level winds will aid convergence and storm-relative low-level flow, and may contribute to locally enlarged hodographs. ..Smith/Jewell.. 05/08/2024 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1708Z (1:08PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME It might be easier to start up a thread to cover today (May 8th) Moderate risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 Quote Mesoscale Discussion 0698 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...Southeast MO...southern IL...and far western KY Concerning...Tornado Watch 204... Valid 081635Z - 081800Z CORRECTED FOR WATCH NUMBER The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 204 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing across southeast Missouri, into southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky. This will include potential for cyclical tornadogenesis and a strong (EF2-EF3) tornado. DISCUSSION...Long-lived/tracked supercell centered on northern Crawford/southern Franklin counties in MO as of 1620Z has fully transitioned from earlier elevated character to surface-based. Measured severe gusts up to 58 kt have been reported in the past hour at the Vichy ASOS. It will likely persist along the composite outflow that extends southeastward, where additional supercells are maturing in far southern IL. The strongest low-level flow across the region remains in southern MO per SGF VWP data, with somewhat weaker but more veering with height over the MS/OH Valley confluence per the PAH VWP data. This will yield an STP environment of 1-3 across the region, supportive of a strong tornado. Overall convective mode will probably become increasingly complex with time as considerable storm-scale consolidation occurs through the afternoon, but occasional attempts at tornadogenesis should occur with multiple embedded supercells. ..Grams.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38429142 38489045 38198884 37858812 37308770 36898792 36738829 36798878 37269021 37899159 38429142 Mesoscale Discussion 0698 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024 Areas affected...Southeast MO...southern IL...and far western KY Concerning...Tornado Watch 204... Valid 081635Z - 081800Z CORRECTED FOR WATCH NUMBER The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 204 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat is increasing across southeast Missouri, into southern Illinois, and far western Kentucky. This will include potential for cyclical tornadogenesis and a strong (EF2-EF3) tornado. DISCUSSION...Long-lived/tracked supercell centered on northern Crawford/southern Franklin counties in MO as of 1620Z has fully transitioned from earlier elevated character to surface-based. Measured severe gusts up to 58 kt have been reported in the past hour at the Vichy ASOS. It will likely persist along the composite outflow that extends southeastward, where additional supercells are maturing in far southern IL. The strongest low-level flow across the region remains in southern MO per SGF VWP data, with somewhat weaker but more veering with height over the MS/OH Valley confluence per the PAH VWP data. This will yield an STP environment of 1-3 across the region, supportive of a strong tornado. Overall convective mode will probably become increasingly complex with time as considerable storm-scale consolidation occurs through the afternoon, but occasional attempts at tornadogenesis should occur with multiple embedded supercells. ..Grams.. 05/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 38429142 38489045 38198884 37858812 37308770 36898792 36738829 36798878 37269021 37899159 38429142 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 Quote SEL4 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 204 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southeastern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1025 AM until 500 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...A supercell cluster in Missouri will likely persist through the afternoon while spreading east-southeastward toward southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri and western Kentucky, with some potential for additional storm development this afternoon. The environment will become more favorable for surface-based storms capable of producing tornadoes (a couple of which could be strong/EF2+), severe wind swaths up to 80 mph, and very large hail of 2-3 inches in diameter. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles south of Vichy MO to 40 miles east of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 202...WW 203... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Paducah KY 1256 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 KYC219-081815- /O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0034.000000T0000Z-240508T1815Z/ Todd KY- 1256 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN TODD COUNTY... At 1255 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles northeast of Elkton, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Public reported a funnel cloud at 1252 pm. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Clifty and Allegre. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3684 8706 3684 8718 3690 8722 3698 8721 3703 8715 3706 8706 TIME...MOT...LOC 1755Z 239DEG 27KT 3691 8710 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ JGG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 Quote Tornado Warning KYC141-081830- /O.NEW.KLMK.TO.W.0028.240508T1800Z-240508T1830Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Louisville KY 100 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Logan County in south central Kentucky... * Until 130 PM CDT. * At 1259 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles northeast of Elkton, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported funnel cloud. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Logan County, including the following locations... Cooperstown, Insco, Edwards, and Epleys. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3699 8686 3692 8682 3688 8705 3692 8706 3692 8705 TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 255DEG 32KT 3689 8707 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$ CG I've been following this storm on the Nashville NWS radar reflectivity, and this is one could spin up a tornado on the ground at any moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 Sun is trying to come out in Oak Ridge. Edit: Sun is fully out now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 Quote URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 206 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Central Kentucky Middle Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Supercells are forecast to continue to develop and intensify across the Watch area as the airmass recovers in wake of an earlier thunderstorm complex. Large to very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging gusts are possible. A strong tornado is possible with any mature and intense supercell. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest of Fort Campbell KY to 55 miles north of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 202...WW 203...WW 204...WW 205... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Nashville TN 349 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 TNC147-165-082100- /O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-240508T2100Z/ Sumner TN-Robertson TN- 349 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN SUMNER AND NORTHEASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTIES... At 349 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Portland, or 14 miles northwest of Gallatin, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This dangerous storm will be near... Portland around 355 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mitchellville and Orlinda. This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 111 and 120. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3649 8637 3649 8666 3660 8671 3665 8645 3665 8641 TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 244DEG 28KT 3657 8656 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 String of pearls shows little sign of congealing into a line. Oh yeah, we're in the South. We do our tornadoes at night! Normally that doesn't make it over the Plateau. Tonight unfortunately we have Great Plains parameters in place, so.. Remember southeast Tennessee tornado watch until Midnight Eastern. The cell just south of Murfreesboro caused the damaging tornado earlier. From just issued Mesoscale Discussion #716. Parameters are for the vicinity of the line of pearls. New watch will be Western and Middle Tenn. The airmass across this region remains very unstable, with mixed-layer CAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. This should be more than sufficient to sustain vigorous updrafts, support CAM runs which increase convective coverage over the next several hours. Strong deep-layer winds will support organized convection, with an all-hazards severe risk likely to continue through the evening and into the overnight hours -- warranting new tornado watch issuance across this region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 The South is so much fun after dark, but not the weather. Seems like it's escalating juuust a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 Yeah, it is getting wild now. There are multiple rotating thunderstorms in Northern Alabama all the way through eastern part of Middle Tennessee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 I was dealing with severe weather here in Charlotte. I noticed that there have been numerous reports of tornadoes across Middle Tennessee. The conga line of discrete supercells look like what most were expecting last night across the IL-IN-OH-KY portion of yesterday's moderate risk event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 Confirmed tornado on the ground near Ardmore, AL on the AL-TN stateline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 TDS with the Athen, AL storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 Nearly every county with very few exceptions in the Huntsville DMA are under some type of severe or tornado warning right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Just now, kayman said: Nearly every county with very few exceptions in the Huntsville DMA are under some type of severe or tornado warning right now. Looks like a dog's breakfast on radarscope, wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 HTX radar is pretty terrifying. Gonna be a long night here. The air has “the feel”. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 Now Madison County including Huntsville and Madison are under the tornado warning for the Athens storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 4 minutes ago, dwagner88 said: HTX radar is pretty terrifying. Gonna be a long night here. The air has “the feel”. I haven't seen a tornado outbreak like this in a minute. It does seem like the LLJ has caught up to the showers across North Alabama and southern Tennessee to yield these to becoming supercells instantaneously with low-level rotation. The storm now in northern Jackson County, AL developed right over the Hytop NWS radar site and started rotating within a few miles of passage of this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Central/Northern valley convection seems to be going quasi linear coming off the plateau. Buckling up for some wind here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 The Lincoln County, TN storm east of Belleview headed towards Flintville is a monster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 The Huntsville storm has an interesting configuration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 This is insane for it to 9PM CDT/10PM EDT... those in Chattanooga and Hamilton County, TN need to be prepared for this mess in the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 This is old but still relevant. About that time the finally went 15% tornado probs. Southeast Tenn. Goodie at night! Then at 10:12 pm Eastern Time. Everything is kidney bean or hook. Just wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Energy Jeff right now: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 The supercell is cycling over the west side of Huntsville near the Bridge Street and Mid-City developments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 This looks very ominous on the KHTX radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 New Tornado Warning for eastern Madison County including Monte Santo, Ryland, and Gurley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayman Posted May 9 Author Share Posted May 9 I think this is about to be a TOG as it heads towards Ryland and Gurley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Uh oh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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