2024 summer maximum temperature forecast contest (DCA,IAD,BWI,RIC) _ Sep 13 2024 _ FINAL _ We Jebwalk!!!

[nmyers1204]

DCA - 97

IAD - 99

BWI - 101

RIC - 102

[WEATHER53]

On 5/25/2024 at 11:52 PM, WEATHER53 said:

And the champ says:

DCA 100

IAD: 101

BWI. 101

RIC; 100

 

I’m still satisfied with it. My last year 1 deviation will be hard but that’s what winner will likely need 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Table of forecasts

 

FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ average (rank)

Average of four forecasts shows warm bias and is ranked, data illustrated by graphic format.

 

George BM (12) ___________________ 108 _ 110 _ 110 _ 111 ________________ 109.75 (1)

Jebman (20) ______________________ 105 _ 102 _ 103 _ 101 _________ 102.75 (t3)

Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 103 _ 105 _ 106 _ 107 ___________ 105.25 (2)

Rhino16 (13) _______________________102 _ 104 _ 101 _ 104 _________ 102.75 (t3)

yoda (28) __________________________102 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6)

RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 101.75 (5)

wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9)

Roger Ramjet (18) __________________101 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.0 (t11)

North Balti Zen (4) _________________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.5 (t6)

katabatic (19) ______________________100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6)

Terpeast (10) ______________________ 100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9)

Weather53 (22) ___________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13)

PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.25 (t15)

biodhokie (8) ______________________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 __99 ______ 99.50 (t23)

Palocene (21) ______________________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ______ 100.0 (18)

___ Consensus (median) ___________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 100.75 (12/13)

WxUSAF (9) ________________________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 99.75 (t19)

WxDavis5784 (11) __________________ 99 _ 101 _ 103 _ 101 ______ 101.0 (t11)

LittleVillageWx (17) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13)

MN Transplant (25) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 100 __99 _______ 99.75 (t19)

midAtlanticweather (24) ____________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 100.25 (t15)

Gramax Refugee (15) _______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _____ 100.25 (t15)

nw baltimore wx (3) ________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 99.25 (25)

GATECH (26) _______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 99.0 (t26)

tplbge (23) _________________________ 99 __ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 98.5 (29)

TSG (7) _____________________________ 98 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______ 99.75 (t19)

LongRanger (27) ____________________98 _ 100 _ 102 __ 98 ______ 99.50 (t23)

Jenkins Jinkies (14) _________________98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ______ 99.0 (t26)

Eskimo Joe (16) _____________________98 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _____ 98.75 (28)

nmyers1204 (29) ___________________ 97 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 99.75 (t19)

___ mean (avg) ____________________ 100.1_ 101.1_ 101.1 _101.1 ___100.85

_______________________________

Please note, as you review your entry, order of stations changed during posting period (for a few consecutive entries) near start of second half; a few entries were in order DCA_BWI_IAD_RIC so at first glance you could think your entry is wrong in table, but I was preserving table order that was used by most entrants . 

 

[Miss Pixee]

DCA:  103

IAD:  101

BWI:  102

RIC:  101

[MN Transplant]

I think we’ve already wiped a bunch of the lower set of entries, including mine.

[yoda]

23 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I think we’ve already wiped a bunch of the lower set of entries, including mine.

I believe these are the highs for today 

DCA - 100

IAD - 100

BWI- 101

RIC - 99

[Roger Smith]

First bit of contest news, late entries will not be incorporated as we had a long interval for entries and a deadline up against this heat wave.

Second, here are updated scores after a very hot Saturday.

EDIT _ June 26 RIC 101

 

Actual to date __________________________ 100_100_101_101

Departures ________________________DCA IAD BWI RIC ____ TOTALS (rank) __ departures not reversible

 

PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________0 _ 0 _ 0 _ 1 __________ 1 (1) _____ 1

Gramax Refugee (15) ______________ 1 _ 0 _ 0 _ 0 __________ 1 (2) _____ 1

___ Consensus (median) ___________ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _ 0 __________ 1 (t1) ____ 0

Roger Ramjet (18) _________________ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _ 0 ___________ 2 (3) _____0

Palocene (21) ______________________0 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 ___________ 2 (4) _____ 2

Weather53 (22) ___________________ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 ___________ 2 (5) _____ 1

WxUSAF (9) _______________________ 0 _ 1 _ 1 _ 1 ___________ 3 (6) _____ 3

wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _ 0 __________ 3 (7) _____ 0

Terpeast (10) ______________________ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 0 __________ 3 (8) _____ 0

LittleVillageWx (17) ________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 1 ___________ 4 (9) _____ 2

WxDavis5784 (11) _________________ 1 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 ___________4 (10)_____ 1

katabatic (19) ______________________0 _ 2 _ 1 _ 1 ___________4 (11)_____ 0

yoda (28) __________________________2 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 ___________4  (12)_____ 0

biodhokie (8) ______________________ 0 _ 0 _ 2 _ 2 __________4 (13)_____ 4

North Balti Zen (4) ________________ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _ 0 ___________4 (14)_____ 0

nw baltimore wx (3) _______________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 2 ___________ 5 (15) _____ 5

MN Transplant (25) ________________1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 2 ___________ 5 (16) _____ 4

midAtlanticweather (24) ___________ 1 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 ___________5 (17) _____ 3

RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _ 2 ___________5 (18) _____ 0

TSG (7) ____________________________2 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 ___________5 (19) _____ 4

nmyers1204 (29) __________________ 3 _ 1 _ 0 _ 1 ___________5 (20) _____ 4

GATECH (26) ______________________ 1 _ 1 _ 2 _ 2 ___________6 (21) _____ 6

Jenkins Jinkies (14) _______________ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 ___________6 (22) _____ 6

LongRanger (27) __________________ 2 _ 0 _ 1 _ 3 ___________6 (23) _____ 5

Eskimo Joe (16) ___________________ 2 _ 1 _ 2 _ 2 ___________7 (24) _____ 7

tplbge (23) ________________________ 1 _ 2 _ 2 _ 3 __________ 8 (25) _____ 8

Rhino16 (13) _______________________ 2 _ 4 _ 0 _ 3 __________9 (26) _____ 0

Jebman (20) _______________________ 5 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 __________9 (27) _____ 0

Roger Smith (1) ____________________ 3 _ 5 _ 5 _ 6 _________ 19 (28) _____ 0

George BM (12) ____________________ 8 _10 _  9 _10 ________ 37 (29) _____ 0

 

___ mean (avg) ____________________ 0.1 _ 1.1_ 0.1 _2.1 ______ 3.4

_______________________________

 

(forecasts)

FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ average (rank)

Average of four forecasts shows warm bias and is ranked, data illustrated by graphic format.

George BM (12) ___________________ 108 _ 110 _ 110 _ 111 ________________ 109.75 (1)

Jebman (20) ______________________ 105 _ 102 _ 103 _ 101 _________ 102.75 (t3)

Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 103 _ 105 _ 106 _ 107 ___________ 105.25 (2)

Rhino16 (13) _______________________102 _ 104 _ 101 _ 104 _________ 102.75 (t3)

yoda (28) __________________________102 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6)

RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 101.75 (5)

wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9)

Roger Ramjet (18) __________________101 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.0 (t11)

North Balti Zen (4) _________________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.5 (t6)

katabatic (19) ______________________100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6)

Terpeast (10) ______________________ 100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9)

Weather53 (22) ___________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13)

PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.25 (t15)

biodhokie (8) ______________________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 __99 ______ 99.50 (t23)

Palocene (21) ______________________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ______ 100.0 (18)

___ Consensus (median) ___________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 100.75 (12/13)

WxUSAF (9) ________________________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 99.75 (t19)

WxDavis5784 (11) __________________ 99 _ 101 _ 103 _ 101 ______ 101.0 (t11)

LittleVillageWx (17) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13)

MN Transplant (25) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 100 __99 _______ 99.75 (t19)

midAtlanticweather (24) ____________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 100.25 (t15)

Gramax Refugee (15) _______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _____ 100.25 (t15)

nw baltimore wx (3) ________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 99.25 (25)

GATECH (26) _______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 99.0 (t26)

tplbge (23) _________________________ 99 __ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 98.5 (29)

TSG (7) _____________________________ 98 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______ 99.75 (t19)

LongRanger (27) ____________________98 _ 100 _ 102 __ 98 ______ 99.50 (t23)

Jenkins Jinkies (14) _________________98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ______ 99.0 (t26)

Eskimo Joe (16) _____________________98 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _____ 98.75 (28)

nmyers1204 (29) ___________________ 97 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 99.75 (t19)

___ mean (avg) ____________________ 100.1_ 101.1_ 101.1 _101.1 ___100.85

_______________________________

[Rhino16]

RIC hit 101 today…

[Roger Smith]

Scoring adjusted for RIC 101, PrinceFrederickWx stays in the lead, Gramax Refugee now second. Our consensus is tied for lead, but 75% of summers have their max in July or August, so this early burst of heat could quite easily be broken later. 

[Roger Smith]

Scoring after July 15, 2024 ... Roger Ramjet is our leader, yoda second on later entry (identical errors, different locations)

Update: July 16, 2024 ... We Jebwalk !!!

 

Actual to date __________________________ 104_101_104_101

Departures ________________________DCA IAD BWI RIC ____ TOTALS (rank) __ departures not reversible

 

Jebman (20) _______________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 3 (1) _____ 1

yoda (28) __________________________2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 6 (2) _____ 5

Roger Ramjet (18) _________________3 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 6 (3) _____ 6

WxDavis5784 (11) _________________ 5 _ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 6 (4)_____ 6

wxdude64 (6) _____________________3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (5) _____ 6

Terpeast (10) ______________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 7 (6) _____ 6

___ Consensus (median) ___________4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (6.5)____7

katabatic (19) ______________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (7) _____ 6

North Balti Zen (4) ________________ 4 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 8 (8) _____ 6

Weather53 (22) ___________________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 8 (9) _____ 8

LittleVillageWx (17) ________________ 5 _ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (10)_____ 8

RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _________ 9 (11)_____ 6

PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________4 _ 1 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 9 (12) _____ 9

Gramax Refugee (15) ______________5 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 9 (13) _____ 9

Palocene (21) ______________________4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 0 _________10 (14)____10

Rhino16 (13) _______________________ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _________11 (15) ____ 5

 

WxUSAF (9) _______________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 1 _________ 11 (16)_____11

MN Transplant (25) ________________5 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 11 (17) ____ 11

midAtlanticweather (24) ___________ 5 _ 0 _ 5 _ 1 _________ 11 (18)_____10

TSG (7) ____________________________ 6 _ 0 _ 5 _ 0 _________ 11 (19) _____11

biodhokie (8) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 12 (20)_____12

LongRanger (27) ___________________ 6 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 ________ 12 (21)_____12

nw baltimore wx (3) _______________ 5 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 13 (22)_____13 

Roger Smith (1) ____________________ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6 _________ 13 (23) ____ 1

nmyers1204 (29) ___________________7 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 13 (24)____ 12

GATECH (26) _______________________5 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 14 (25) ____14

Jenkins Jinkies (14) ________________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 1 __________14 (26) ____14

Eskimo Joe (16) ____________________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________15 (27) ____ 10

tplbge (23) _________________________ 5 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _________16 (28) ____ 16

George BM (12) _____________________4 _ 9 _  6 _10 _______ 29 (29) _____ 0

 

___ mean (avg) ____________________ 3.9 _ 0.1_ 2.9 _0.1 _____ 7.0 _______ 6.8 

 

note: increasing surpassed errors in italic, total at end of data row __ ^^

_______________________________

 

(forecasts)

FORECASTER (order of entry) ____ DCA _ IAD _ BWI _ RIC ____ average (rank)

Average of four forecasts shows warm bias and is ranked, data illustrated by graphic format.

George BM (12) ___________________ 108 _ 110 _ 110 _ 111 ________________ 109.75 (1)

Jebman (20) ______________________ 105 _ 102 _ 103 _ 101 _________ 102.75 (t3)

Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 103 _ 105 _ 106 _ 107 ___________ 105.25 (2)

Rhino16 (13) _______________________102 _ 104 _ 101 _ 104 _________ 102.75 (t3)

yoda (28) __________________________102 _ 101 _ 101 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6)

RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 103 _______ 101.75 (5)

wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 101 _ 102 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9)

Roger Ramjet (18) __________________101 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 _______ 101.0 (t11)

North Balti Zen (4) _________________100 _ 103 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.5 (t6)

katabatic (19) ______________________100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 102 _______ 101.5 (t6)

Terpeast (10) ______________________ 100 _ 102 _ 102 _ 101 _______ 101.25 (t9)

Weather53 (22) ___________________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13)

PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________100 _ 100 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 100.25 (t15)

biodhokie (8) ______________________ 100 _ 100 __ 99 __99 ______ 99.50 (t23)

Palocene (21) ______________________ 100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 101 ______ 100.0 (18)

___ Consensus (median) ___________ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 100.75 (12/13)

WxUSAF (9) ________________________100 __ 99 _ 100 _ 100 ______ 99.75 (t19)

WxDavis5784 (11) __________________ 99 _ 101 _ 103 _ 101 ______ 101.0 (t11)

LittleVillageWx (17) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 102 _ 100 ______ 100.5 (t13)

MN Transplant (25) _________________ 99 _ 101 _ 100 __99 _______ 99.75 (t19)

midAtlanticweather (24) ____________ 99 _ 101 __ 99 _ 102 _____ 100.25 (t15)

Gramax Refugee (15) _______________ 99 _ 100 _ 101 _ 101 _____ 100.25 (t15)

nw baltimore wx (3) ________________ 99 __ 99 _ 100 __ 99 ______ 99.25 (25)

GATECH (26) _______________________ 99 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 ______ 99.0 (t26)

tplbge (23) _________________________ 99 __ 98 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 98.5 (29)

TSG (7) _____________________________ 98 _ 101 __ 99 _ 101 ______ 99.75 (t19)

LongRanger (27) ____________________98 _ 100 _ 102 __ 98 ______ 99.50 (t23)

Jenkins Jinkies (14) _________________98 __ 99 __ 99 _ 100 ______ 99.0 (t26)

Eskimo Joe (16) _____________________98 __ 99 __ 99 __ 99 _____ 98.75 (28)

nmyers1204 (29) ___________________ 97 __ 99 _ 101 _ 102 ______ 99.75 (t19)

___ mean (avg) ____________________ 100.1_ 101.1_ 101.1 _101.1 ___100.85

 

(raw differentials for future edits _ increasing surpassed errors in italic)

 

George BM (12) ___________________ 4 _ 9 _ 6 _10 ________________ 109.75 (1)

Jebman (20) ______________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 102.75 (t3)

___ Current actuals ________________ 0 _ 0 _ 0 _ 0 _______ 102.0 (would be 5)

Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6 ___________ 105.25 (2)

Rhino16 (13) _______________________2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _________ 102.75 (t3)

yoda (28) __________________________2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _______ 101.5 (t6)

RickinBaltimore (2) ________________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _______ 101.75 (5)

wxdude64 (6) _____________________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _______ 101.25 (t9)

Roger Ramjet (18) __________________3 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _______ 101.0 (t11)

North Balti Zen (4) _________________4 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _______ 101.5 (t6)

katabatic (19) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _______ 101.5 (t6)

Terpeast (10) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _______ 101.25 (t9)

Weather53 (22) ___________________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 ______ 100.5 (t13)

PrinceFrederickWx (5) _____________4 _ 1 _ 3 _ 1 ______ 100.25 (t15)

biodhokie (8) ______________________ 4 _ 1 _ 5 _ 2 ______ 99.50 (t23)

Palocene (21) ______________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 0 ______ 100.0 (18)

___ Consensus (median) ___________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 ______ 100.75 (12/13)

WxUSAF (9) ________________________4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 1 ______ 99.75 (t19)

WxDavis5784 (11) __________________ 5 _ 0 _ 1 _ 0 ______ 101.0 (t11)

LittleVillageWx (17) _________________ 5 _ 0 _ 2 _ 1 ______ 100.5 (t13)

MN Transplant (25) _________________ 5 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _______ 99.75 (t19)

midAtlanticweather (24) ____________ 5 _ 0 _ 5 _ 1 _____ 100.25 (t15)

Gramax Refugee (15) _______________ 5 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _____ 100.25 (t15)

nw baltimore wx (3) ________________ 5 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 ______ 99.25 (25)

GATECH (26) _______________________ 5 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 ______ 99.0 (t26)

tplbge (23) _________________________ 5 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _____ 98.5 (29)

TSG (7) _____________________________ 6 _ 0 _ 5 _ 0 ______ 99.75 (t19)

LongRanger (27) ____________________6 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 ______ 99.50 (t23)

Jenkins Jinkies (14) _________________6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 1 ______ 99.0 (t26)

Eskimo Joe (16) _____________________6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _____ 98.75 (28)

nmyers1204 (29) ___________________ 7 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 ______ 99.75 (t19)

___ mean (avg) ____________________  3.9 _0.1_ 2.9 _0.1 ___100.85

_______________________________

 

[Roger Smith]

... incoming ... 103F at BWI already. 

Look for table edit by 8 pm, I need RIC to get in on this action. 

[Roger Smith]

WE JEBWALK !!!

new contest leader Jebman _ scroll back two posts, scoring table updated.

... only five of 29 forecasters predicted an average 102 or over, current average is 102.5 for four locations.

... only one forecaster carries no expired forecasts (GeorgeBm)

... only four can now win contest (Jebman, George, RogerS, Rhino16) 

first of all, to overtake Jebman you need unexpired forecasts, of larger value than his differentials ... 1, 1, -1, 0.

If your differentials are same at a given station, you have no advantage. A differential of zero at BWI is no advantage now either. 

This is a list of people with larger differentials than our leader, to use up and gain advantages.

(Figure in brackets is your potential advantage, each degree you "receive" gives you a two-point gain vs Jebman, your max potential gain is twice number in brackets.) Same is true for you vs any forecaster in lists below. For example, at IAD, I have a +1 on Rhino16 for a potential gain of 2, but to realize it IAD has to reach 105F or above. For outcomes between current 101F at IAD and eventual 102 to 104, a smaller differential is no advantage over a larger one. You start gaining advantages over field when their forecasts are surpassed. 

Differentials larger than Jebman at each location

DCA _ George 4 (+3) _ this effectively removes DCA from future relevance to contest unless George can hit other targets below since score differential is 26 and DCA only gives George a potential 6 point gain. Also, Jebman moves 2 points further ahead all other forecasters if DCA goes to 105F or above.

IAD _ George 9 (+8), RogerS 4 (+3), Rhino16 3 (+2), NorthBaltiZen 2 (+1) __ George can recover up to 16 points vs Jebman, and bring total differential to four (before considering two stations below) if DCA worked out also.

BWI _ George 6 (+6), RogerS 2 (+2) 

RIC _ George 10 (+10), RogerS 6 (+6), Rhino16 3 (+3), RickinBaltimore 2 (+2), yoda, katabatic, midAtlwx 1 (+1). Yoda could finish second to Jebman for a RIC 102F outcome. 

Last four in RIC list are too far behind Jebman now to utilize small advantages, but would move up by 2 or 4 points vs field if RIC goes to 102 or 103. NBZ is also too far behind to use a 2 point advantage at IAD but would finish second in contest if IAD hits 103F and no other changes took place. 

Safe zone for Jebman appears to be up to 106 103 106 103

At 106 103 106 103 scores would total

Jebman 7

RogerS 9

Rhino16 10

George 21

If any station goes above 106-103-106-103 and rest hit, at that point RogerS could pass Jebman, and has further one degree (2 pt) advantage on Rhino16 at IAD after 104F, and advantages at BWI and RIC also. So Rhino16 can only win at one outcome (I think) and that is 104 104 104 104. (could be one or two successful outcomes nearby also)

Going above 106-103-106-103 would mean only RogerS or George could win. Going past 106-105-106-107 is point where RogerS no longer enjoys any part of 12 point advantage as per above, so any addition of total of 6 degrees to that set (as an example 107-107-107-109) would create a tie broken by larger differentials, and any total of 7 or greater would result in a George win. Obviously if George makes targets, nobody will be left alive to discuss it anyway. (jk) 

So if current heat is ever surpassed in summer 2024 (many hope not) then those are possible contest results. 

[Roger Smith]

I cannot imagine any of the four locations going above their current seasonal maxima, so I am

ready to declare contest SETTLED ...

 

Actual to date _______________________________ 104_101_104_101

Rank _ Departures ______________________DCA IAD BWI RIC ____ TOTALS (rank) __ portion surpassed by maxima

 

_01 ___ Jebman (20) _____________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 3 (1) _____ 1

_02 ___ yoda (28) ________________________ 2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 6 (2) _____5

_03 ___ Roger Ramjet (18) ________________3 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 6 (3) _____6

_04 ___ WxDavis5784 (11) ________________5 _ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 6 (4)_____ 6

_05 ___ wxdude64 (6) ____________________3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (5) _____ 6

_06 ___ Terpeast (10) _____________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 7 (6) _____ 6

_xx ___ ___ Consensus (median) __________4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (6.5)____7

_07 ___ katabatic (19) _____________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (7) _____ 6

_08 ___ North Balti Zen (4) _______________ 4 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 8 (8) _____6

_09 ___ Weather53 (22) __________________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 8 (9) _____ 8

_10 ___ LittleVillageWx (17) ________________5 _ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (10)_____ 8

_ 11 ___ RickinBaltimore (2) _______________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _________ 9 (11)_____ 6

_12 ___ PrinceFrederickWx (5) ____________4 _ 1 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 9 (12) _____ 9

_13 ___ Gramax Refugee (15) _____________ 5 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 9 (13) _____ 9

_14 ___ Paleocene (21) ___________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 0 ________ 10 (14)____ 10

_15 ___ Rhino16 (13) ______________________ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _________11 (15) ____ 5

_16 ___ WxUSAF (9) ______________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 1 _________ 11 (16)_____11

_17 ___ MN Transplant (25) _______________ 5 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 11 (17) ____ 11

_18 ___ midAtlanticweather (24) __________ 5 _ 0 _ 5 _ 1 _________ 11 (18)_____ 10

_19 ___ TSG (7) ___________________________ 6 _ 0 _ 5 _ 0 _________ 11 (19) _____11

_20 ___ biodhokie (8) _____________________ 4 _ 1 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 12 (20)_____12

_21 ___ LongRanger (27) __________________ 6 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _________ 12 (21)_____ 12

_22 ___ nw baltimore wx (3) ______________ 5 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 13 (22)_____13 

_23 ___ Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6 _________ 13 (23) ____ 1

_24 ___ nmyers1204 (29) __________________7 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 13 (24)____ 12

_25 ___ GATECH (26) ______________________5 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 14 (25) ____14

_26 ___ Jenkins Jinkies (14) _______________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 1 __________14 (26) ____14

_27 ___ Eskimo Joe (16) ___________________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________15 (27) ____ 15

_28 ___ tplbge (23) ________________________ 5 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _________16 (28) ____ 16

_29 ___ George BM (12) ____________________4 _ 9 _ 6 _10 ________ 29 (29) ____ 0

 

_xx ___ ___ mean (avg) ___________________ 3.9 _ 0.1_ 2.9 _0.1 _____ 7.0 _______ 6.8 

Congrats to Jebman who had a clear victory over the field with only three error points; yoda was a solid second (six error points), and Roger Ramjet as well as WxDavis5784 also had six but their error patterns placed them 3rd and 4th.

Three forecasters tied for most correct forecasts (two): Roger Ramjet, WxDavis5784 and TSG. All three nailed IAD and RIC (101). Our consensus was also accurate for them. A few others got one of these locations correct. Nobody was exactly correct for DCA or BWI (104), closest calls being 1F for DCA (Jebman 105, Roger S 103), and also 1F for BWI (Jebman and WxDavis5784 both at 103F).

On to fall and winter contests ... good luck !!!

 

[IronTy]

Congratulations @Jebman!!!  A true clairvoyant.  I want to know his winter forecast now, though I'm pretty sure I know what it calls for...

[nw baltimore wx]

24 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Congratulations @Jebman!!!  A true clairvoyant.  I want to know his winter forecast now, though I'm pretty sure I know what it calls for...

He’d be here accepting the accolades except he’s glued to the live feed out of Palisades waiting for the first flakes of the season. 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

He’d be here accepting the accolades except he’s glued to the live feed out of Palisades waiting for the first flakes of the season. 

...furiously refreshing the mammoth mtn live feed...

[Jebman]

I am SOOOOOOOOOOOO sorry I missed this. I was so busy with outdoor work this spring/summer.

[Jebman]

Wait a cotton pickin minute!

You guys say I WON? That's RIDICULOUS! I am only a weather weenie!

[Jebman]

On 9/14/2024 at 12:37 AM, Roger Smith said:

I cannot imagine any of the four locations going above their current seasonal maxima, so I am

ready to declare contest SETTLED ...

 

Actual to date _______________________________ 104_101_104_101

Rank _ Departures ______________________DCA IAD BWI RIC ____ TOTALS (rank) __ portion surpassed by maxima

 

_01 ___ Jebman (20) _____________________ 1 _ 1 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 3 (1) _____ 1

_02 ___ yoda (28) ________________________ 2 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 6 (2) _____5

_03 ___ Roger Ramjet (18) ________________3 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 6 (3) _____6

_04 ___ WxDavis5784 (11) ________________5 _ 0 _ 1 _ 0 _________ 6 (4)_____ 6

_05 ___ wxdude64 (6) ____________________3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (5) _____ 6

_06 ___ Terpeast (10) _____________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 7 (6) _____ 6

_xx ___ ___ Consensus (median) __________4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 7 (6.5)____7

_07 ___ katabatic (19) _____________________4 _ 1 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (7) _____ 6

_08 ___ North Balti Zen (4) _______________ 4 _ 2 _ 2 _ 0 _________ 8 (8) _____6

_09 ___ Weather53 (22) __________________ 4 _ 0 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 8 (9) _____ 8

_10 ___ LittleVillageWx (17) ________________5 _ 0 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 8 (10)_____ 8

_ 11 ___ RickinBaltimore (2) _______________ 3 _ 1 _ 3 _ 2 _________ 9 (11)_____ 6

_12 ___ PrinceFrederickWx (5) ____________4 _ 1 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 9 (12) _____ 9

_13 ___ Gramax Refugee (15) _____________ 5 _ 1 _ 3 _ 0 _________ 9 (13) _____ 9

_14 ___ Paleocene (21) ___________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 0 ________ 10 (14)____ 10

_15 ___ Rhino16 (13) ______________________ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _ 3 _________11 (15) ____ 5

_16 ___ WxUSAF (9) ______________________ 4 _ 2 _ 4 _ 1 _________ 11 (16)_____11

_17 ___ MN Transplant (25) _______________ 5 _ 0 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 11 (17) ____ 11

_18 ___ midAtlanticweather (24) __________ 5 _ 0 _ 5 _ 1 _________ 11 (18)_____ 10

_19 ___ TSG (7) ___________________________ 6 _ 0 _ 5 _ 0 _________ 11 (19) _____11

_20 ___ biodhokie (8) _____________________ 4 _ 1 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 12 (20)_____12

_21 ___ LongRanger (27) __________________ 6 _ 1 _ 2 _ 3 _________ 12 (21)_____ 12

_22 ___ nw baltimore wx (3) ______________ 5 _ 2 _ 4 _ 2 _________ 13 (22)_____13 

_23 ___ Roger Smith (1) ___________________ 1 _ 4 _ 2 _ 6 _________ 13 (23) ____ 1

_24 ___ nmyers1204 (29) __________________7 _ 2 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 13 (24)____ 12

_25 ___ GATECH (26) ______________________5 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________ 14 (25) ____14

_26 ___ Jenkins Jinkies (14) _______________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 1 __________14 (26) ____14

_27 ___ Eskimo Joe (16) ___________________ 6 _ 2 _ 5 _ 2 _________15 (27) ____ 15

_28 ___ tplbge (23) ________________________ 5 _ 3 _ 5 _ 3 _________16 (28) ____ 16

_29 ___ George BM (12) ____________________4 _ 9 _ 6 _10 ________ 29 (29) ____ 0

 

_xx ___ ___ mean (avg) ___________________ 3.9 _ 0.1_ 2.9 _0.1 _____ 7.0 _______ 6.8 

Congrats to Jebman who had a clear victory over the field with only three error points; yoda was a solid second (six error points), and Roger Ramjet as well as WxDavis5784 also had six but their error patterns placed them 3rd and 4th.

Three forecasters tied for most correct forecasts (two): Roger Ramjet, WxDavis5784 and TSG. All three nailed IAD and RIC (101). Our consensus was also accurate for them. A few others got one of these locations correct. Nobody was exactly correct for DCA or BWI (104), closest calls being 1F for DCA (Jebman 105, Roger S 103), and also 1F for BWI (Jebman and WxDavis5784 both at 103F).

On to fall and winter contests ... good luck !!!

 

Thanks guys but you all are the REAL forecasters! Look, a broken clock is correct twice a day. It was Beginner's Luck, kind of like the time I won 500 dollars playing Sun and Moon at Charles Town back in March 2010.

[Jebman]

Well I think this winter is gonnabe frigid and snowy all up and down the East Coast but especially in the Mid Atlantic.

You can take that to the Bank.

[WEATHER53]

Way to go Jebman 

I pass the torch to thee!

[rclab]

22 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Well I think this winter is gonnabe frigid and snowy all up and down the East Coast but especially in the Mid Atlantic.

You can take that to the Bank.

 

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Way to go Jebman 

I pass the torch to thee!

As always …..

 

[Jebman]

I want you guys to get buried in frigid snow so bad.

I wish I could be correct about THAT for once.

I want some moisture laden low pressure to stall right at what would be the 40/70 Benchmark for the DC Region alongside a frigid airmass, and just snow and snow and snow for days and days and days throughout the Mid Atlantic, piling up to absolutely unprecedented Brobdingnagian depths, and so cold that not a one flake melts, along with a refreshing 33 mph northeasterly breeze blowing the snow all over the entire Washington Metropolitan Region for days and days under very dark somber grey skies with cloud decks set at 100 feet. We'd see the usual deathbands setting up over the usual places and just dumping snow for days, but also dumping snow everywhere else as well! It would utterly make my day to witness the incredible happiness in this sub!!!!!!! And then about 8 days later, another snowstorm does the same thing again!

And we call this the PSU Blizzard of 2025!

 

 

BTW, Buda's average high temperature just fell to 89.