Roger Smith Posted June 29 Author Share Posted June 29 Okay noted in table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted June 29 Share Posted June 29 46 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Okay noted in table. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 7 Author Share Posted August 7 EDIT Aug 18 for Ernesto ... Count is now 5/3/1 ... ... your forecasts were already posted in an earlier table, this will be a "forecast of rest of season" for all entrants. <<< DERIVED FORECASTS for REST of 2024 SEASON >>> FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________storms __ hurr __ major TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 34 _____ 23 ______ 6 CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 28 _____ 12 ______ 7 (will rank, ineligible to win) karmac (7) __________________________________ 28 _____ 11 ______ 6 WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________27 _____ 14 ______ 7 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 27 ______ 9 ______ 3 nvck (8) _____________________________________ 24 _____ 12 ______ 4 Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 24 _____ 10 ______ 6 Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 23 _____ 10 ______ 5 cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 22 _____ 14 ______ 5 Yanksfan (9) _________________________________22 _____ 14 ______ 4 ineedsnow (32) ______________________________22 _____ 11 ______ 7 metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 21 _____ 12 ______ 6 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________21 _____ 10 ______ 5 SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 21 _____ 10 ______ 5 Normandy (14) ______________________________ 20 _____ 14 ______ 9 Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 20 _____ 13 ______ 2 Diggiebot (11) _______________________________ 20 _____ 11 ______ 7 Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 20 ______ 9 ______ 6 ncforecaster89 (38) _________________________20 ______ 9 ______ 5 CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 20 ______ 9 ______ 4 JonClaw (23) ________________________________20 ______ 9 ______ 4 Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 20 ______ 9 ______ 3 wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 20 ______ 5 ______ 4 (will rank, ineligible to win) SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________19 _____ 11 ______ 5 ImleahBradley (19) __________________________ 19 _____ 11 ______ 3 IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________19 _____ 10 ______ 4 Stebo (17) ___________________________________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 4 Eyewall (late) ________________________________19 ______ 9 ______ 4 (will rank, ineligible to win) DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 19 ______ 8 ______ 5 LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________ 19 ______ 8 ______ 4 Roger Smith (20) ____________________________ 19 ______ 8 ______ 3 ___ Contest consensus (Median) ___________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 4 StormchaserChuck1 (4) ______________________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 5 GeorgeBM (37) _______________________________18 _____ 10 ______ 5 FPizz (18) ____________________________________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 3 ___ Expert consensus ________________________ 18 ______ 8 ______ 4 Hotair (28) ___________________________________ 18 ______ 8 ______ 3 Southmdwatcher (42) ________________________ 17 _____ 12 ______ 7 Snowlover2 (15) ______________________________ 17 _____ 11 ______ 5 cardinalland (26) _____________________________ 17 ______ 9 ______ 5 Yoda (30) _____________________________________17 ______ 9 ______ 4 ___ UKMO forecast ___________________________ 17 ______ 9 ______ 3 Seminole (25) ________________________________ 17 ______ 8 ______ 2 Metwatch (NW-1) ____________________________ 17 ______ 7 ______ 3 ldub23 (40) __________________________________ 16 ______ 8 ______ 4 ___ NOAA median forecast ___________________ 16 ______ 7.5 ___ 4.5 Gawx (35) ____________________________________ 16 ______ 7 ______ 4 Pauldry (IE-1) _________________________________ 16 ______ 5 ______ 3 Rhino16 (2) ___________________________________ 15 _______ 9 ______ 4 Torch Tiger (13) ______________________________ 15 _______ 8 ______ 5 vpBob (27) ___________________________________ 15 _______ 6 ______ 4 jlauderdal (36) ________________________________14 _______ 6 ______ 4 dancerwithwings (NW-2) _____________________14 _______ 5 ______ 2 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ___________________ 13 _______ 8 ______ 4 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) ________________ 13 _______ 7 ______ 3 wkd (29) ______________________________________ 10 ______ 6 ______ 3 tae laidir (IE-4) ________________________________ 10 ______ 6 ______ 3 Retrobuc (12) __________________________________ 8 ______ 7 _______ 1 Consensus is median of on-time forecasts, late forecasts are not used. ============================== (original forecasts) TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 39 _____ 26 ______ 7 CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 33 _____ 15 ______ 8 (will rank, ineligible to win) karmac (7) __________________________________ 33 _____ 14 ______ 7 WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________32 _____ 17 ______ 8 LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 32 _____ 12 ______ 4 nvck (8) _____________________________________ 29 _____ 15 ______ 5 Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 29 _____ 13 ______ 7 Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________28 _____ 16 ______ 7 WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 28 _____ 13 ______ 6 cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 27 _____ 17 ______ 6 Yanksfan (9) _________________________________27 _____ 17 ______ 5 ineedsnow (32) ______________________________27 _____ 14 ______ 8 metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 26 _____ 15 ______ 7 LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________26 _____ 13 ______ 6 SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 26 _____ 13 ______ 6 Normandy (14) ______________________________ 25 _____ 17 _____ 10 Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 25 _____ 16 ______ 3 Diggiebot (11) _______________________________25 _____ 14 ______ 8 Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 7 ncforecaster89 (38) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 6 CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 5 JonClaw (23) ________________________________25 _____ 12 ______ 5 Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 4 wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 25 ______ 8 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________24 _____ 14 ______ 6 ImleahBradley (19) __________________________24 _____ 14 ______ 4 IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________24 _____ 13 ______ 5 Stebo (17) ___________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 Eyewall (late) ________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win) DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 24 _____ 11 ______ 6 LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________24 _____ 11 ______ 5 Roger Smith (20) ____________________________24 _____ 11 ______ 4 ___ Contest consensus (Median) __________24 _____ 12 _____ 5 StormchaserChuck1 (4) _____________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 GeorgeBM (37) ______________________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6 FPizz (18) ___________________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 4 ___ Expert consensus _______________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 5 Hotair (28) __________________________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 4 Southmdwatcher (42) _______________________22 _____ 15 ______ 8 Snowlover2 (15) _____________________________22 _____ 14 ______ 6 cardinalland (26) ____________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 6 Yoda (30) ____________________________________22 _____ 12 ______ 5 ___ UKMO forecast __________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 4 Seminole (25) _______________________________ 22 _____ 11 ______ 3 Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 22 _____ 10 ______ 4 ldub23 (40) __________________________________21 _____ 11 ______ 5 ___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 21 _____ 10.5 ___ 5.5 Gawx (35) ___________________________________21 _____ 10 ______ 5 Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________21 ______ 8 ______ 4 Rhino16 (2) __________________________________20 _____ 12 ______ 5 Torch Tiger (13) _____________________________ 20 _____ 11 ______ 6 vpBob (27) __________________________________ 20 ______ 9 ______ 5 jlauderdal (36) ______________________________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 5 dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________19 ______ 8 ______ 3 Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ___________________18 _____ 11 ______ 5 Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _______________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 4 wkd (29) _____________________________________15 ______ 9 ______ 4 tae laidir (IE-4) ______________________________ 15 ______ 9 ______ 4 Retrobuc (12) ________________________________ 13 ______ 8 ______ 2 -------------------------- If season is 25% done and stays on current intensity, end result is 20 12 4 Our consensus says season is 1/5 done. All forecasts are still "valid" (do not involve unattainable values e.g. 9 _ 3 _ 4) Table is updated for every new storm once its full development is confirmed. Don't expect Ernesto to recover to cat-3 but would adjust (-1 on all last column entries) if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 18 Author Share Posted August 18 "Rest of season" forecasts look like a typical full season forecast list. Our consensus (and expert consensus not a lot lower) now needs a very robust Sep-Oct to verify. Rest of season values can be seen in previous post above original forecast table. Count is 5/3/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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