2024 Hurricane season forecast contest -- entries now closed

Roger Smith · June 29

Okay noted in table.

CurlyHeadBarrett · June 29

46 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Okay noted in table.

Thanks!

Roger Smith · August 7

EDIT Sep 27 for Helene, and H Isaac and TS Joyce

EDIT Oct 3 for Kirk and Leslie

Count is now (set at) 12/8/3 (if Leslie becomes a 'cane, it is 12/7/3 now) ... "rest of season" forecasts are based on that probability.

... your forecasts were already posted in an earlier table (and are repeated below table), this will be a "forecast of rest of season" for all entrants.

NOTE: Post no longer being edited, a later post is being edited ...

<<< DERIVED FORECASTS for REST of 2024 SEASON >>>

FORECASTER (order of entry) _____________storms _ hurr _ major

TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 27 ____ 18 _____ 4

CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 21 _____ 7 _____ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win)

karmac (7) __________________________________ 21 _____ 6 _____ 4

WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________20 _____ 9 _____ 5

LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 20 _____ 4 _____ 1

nvck (8) _____________________________________ 17 _____ 7 _____ 2

Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 17 _____ 5 _____ 4

Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 4

WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 16 _____ 5 _____ 3

cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 15 _____ 9 _____ 3

Yanksfan (9) _________________________________15 _____ 9 _____ 2

ineedsnow (32) ______________________________15 _____ 6 _____ 5

metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 14 _____ 7 _____ 4

LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________ 14 _____ 5 _____ 3

SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 14 _____ 5 _____ 3

Normandy (14) ______________________________ 13 _____ 9 _____ 7

Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 13 _____ 8______ 0

Diggiebot (11) _______________________________ 13 _____ 6 _____ 5

Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 4

ncforecaster89 (38) _________________________13 _____ 4 _____ 3

CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 2

JonClaw (23) ________________________________13 _____ 4 _____ 2

Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 1

wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 13 _____ 0 _____ 2 (will rank, ineligible to win)

SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________12 _____ 6 _____ 3

ImleahBradley (19) __________________________ 12 _____ 6 _____ 1

IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________12 _____ 5 _____ 2

Stebo (17) ___________________________________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2

Eyewall (late) ________________________________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2 (will rank, ineligible to win)

DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 12 _____ 3 _____ 3

LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________ 12 _____ 3 _____ 2

Roger Smith (20) ____________________________ 12 _____ 3 _____ 1

___ Contest consensus (Median) ___________ 12 _____ 4 _____ 2

StormchaserChuck1 (4) ______________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 3

GeorgeBM (37) _______________________________11 _____ 5 _____ 3

FPizz (18) ____________________________________ 11 _____ 5 _____ 1

___ Expert consensus ________________________ 11 _____ 3 _____ 2

Hotair (28) ___________________________________ 11 _____ 3 _____ 1

Southmdwatcher (42) ________________________ 10 _____ 7 _____ 5

Snowlover2 (15) ______________________________ 10 _____ 6 _____ 3

cardinalland (26) _____________________________ 10 _____ 4 _____ 3

Yoda (30) _____________________________________10______ 4 _____ 2

___ UKMO forecast ___________________________ 10 _____ 4 _____ 1

Seminole (25) ________________________________ 10 _____ 3 _____ 0

Metwatch (NW-1) ____________________________ 10 _____ 2 _____ 1

ldub23 (40) ___________________________________ 9 _____ 3 _____ 2

___ NOAA median forecast ____________________ 9_____ 2.5 __ 2.5

Gawx (35) _____________________________________ 9 _____ 2 _____ 2

Pauldry (IE-1) __________________________________ 9 _____ 0 _____ 1

Rhino16 (2) ____________________________________ 8______ 4 _____ 2

Torch Tiger (13) _______________________________ 8 ______ 3 _____ 3

vpBob (27) ____________________________________ 8 ______ 1 _____ 2

jlauderdal (36) _________________________________ 7______ 1 _____ 2

dancerwithwings (NW-2) ______________________ 7______ 0 _____ 0

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) _____________________ 6 ______3 _____ 2

Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) __________________ 6 ______2 _____ 1

wkd (29) ________________________________________3 _____ 1 _____ 1

tae laidir (IE-4) _________________________________ 3 _____ 1 _____ 1

Retrobuc (12) ___________________________________ 1 ______ 0 ____(-1)

Consensus is median of on-time forecasts, late forecasts are not used.

Sep _ Now as Isaac reached h'cane, wxdude64 is first contest entrant to reach a position where numbers are not attainable (more majors than 'canes in this case). A number of others now have equal numbers of canes and majors required to complete forecast.

Oct _ A few additional forecasts are now out of sequence, or need Leslie to reach major status.

==============================

(original forecasts)

TomCosgrave (IE-3) ________________________ 39 _____ 26 ______ 7

CurlyHeadBarrett (late) _____________________ 33 _____ 15 ______ 8 (will rank, ineligible to win)

karmac (7) __________________________________ 33 _____ 14 ______ 7

WYorksWeather (NW-5) _____________________32 _____ 17 ______ 8

LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ___________________ 32 _____ 12 ______ 4

nvck (8) _____________________________________ 29 _____ 15 ______ 5

Tezeta (16) __________________________________ 29 _____ 13 ______ 7

Jtm12180 (33) _______________________________28 _____ 16 ______ 7

WxWatcher007 (1) __________________________ 28 _____ 13 ______ 6

cnimbus (3) _________________________________ 27 _____ 17 ______ 6

Yanksfan (9) _________________________________27 _____ 17 ______ 5

ineedsnow (32) ______________________________27 _____ 14 ______ 8

metalicwx367 (34) __________________________ 26 _____ 15 ______ 7

LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ______________________26 _____ 13 ______ 6

SnowLover22 (43) __________________________ 26 _____ 13 ______ 6

Normandy (14) ______________________________ 25 _____ 17 _____ 10

Brian5671 (22) ______________________________ 25 _____ 16 ______ 3

Diggiebot (11) _______________________________ 25 _____ 14 ______ 8

Matty40s (NW-3) ___________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 7

ncforecaster89 (38) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 6

CHSVol (5) __________________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 5

JonClaw (23) ________________________________25 _____ 12 ______ 5

Big Jims Videos (21) ________________________ 25 _____ 12 ______ 4

wxdude64 (late) ____________________________ 25 ______ 8 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win)

SnowenOutThere (39) _______________________24 _____ 14 ______ 6

ImleahBradley (19) __________________________ 24 _____ 14 ______ 4

IntenseWind002 (24) ________________________24 _____ 13 ______ 5

Stebo (17) ___________________________________ 24 _____ 12 ______ 5

Eyewall (late) ________________________________24 _____ 12 ______ 5 (will rank, ineligible to win)

DOCARCH (IE-2) ____________________________ 24 _____ 11 ______ 6

LakeNormanStormin (41) ____________________24 _____ 11 ______ 5

Roger Smith (20) ____________________________24 _____ 11 ______ 4

___ Contest consensus (Median) __________ 24 _____ 12 _____ 5

StormchaserChuck1 (4) _____________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6

GeorgeBM (37) ______________________________23 _____ 13 ______ 6

FPizz (18) ___________________________________ 23 _____ 13 ______ 4

___ Expert consensus _______________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 5

Hotair (28) __________________________________ 23 _____ 11 ______ 4

Southmdwatcher (42) _______________________22 _____ 15 ______ 8

Snowlover2 (15) _____________________________22 _____ 14 ______ 6

cardinalland (26) ____________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 6

Yoda (30) ____________________________________22 _____ 12 ______ 5

___ UKMO forecast __________________________ 22 _____ 12 ______ 4

Seminole (25) _______________________________ 22 _____ 11 ______ 3

Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 22 _____ 10 ______ 4

ldub23 (40) __________________________________21 _____ 11 ______ 5

___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 21 _____ 10.5 ___ 5.5

Gawx (35) ___________________________________21 _____ 10 ______ 5

Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________21 ______ 8 ______ 4

Rhino16 (2) __________________________________20 _____ 12 ______ 5

Torch Tiger (13) _____________________________20 _____ 11 ______ 6

vpBob (27) __________________________________20 ______ 9 ______ 5

jlauderdal (36) ______________________________ 19 ______ 9 ______ 5

dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________19 ______ 8 ______ 3

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ___________________18 _____ 11 ______ 5

Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) _______________ 18 _____ 10 ______ 4

wkd (29) _____________________________________15 ______ 9 ______ 4

tae laidir (IE-4) ______________________________ 15 ______ 9 ______ 4

Retrobuc (12) ________________________________ 13 ______ 8 ______ 2

--------------------------

(previous notes)

If season is 50% done and stays on current intensity, end result is 12 8 2

Our consensus says season is 1/4 done.

All forecasts (were) still "valid" (do not involve unattainable values e.g. 9 _ 3 _ 4) (since updated)

Table is updated for every new storm once its full development is confirmed.

Roger Smith · August 18

"Rest of season" forecasts look like a typical full season forecast list. Our consensus (and expert consensus not a lot lower) now needs a very robust Sep-Oct to verify.

Rest of season values can be seen in previous post above original forecast table.

Count is 5/3/1.

Roger Smith · September 13

Count is 6/4/1. Will probably be 7/4/1 soon if TD Seven is a named storm (later edit, TS Gordon).

For now, table of "storms needed to verify" is based on 6/4/1, will re-edit if we are at 7/4/1.

(table is two posts back now) ...

Gordon's fate is not clear, may eventually become a weak 'cane. Table is now edited for 7/4/1 for now.

Roger Smith · September 25

Table of storms (two posts back) still needed to verify forecasts is updated for likely events taking Helene to major next day or so. Also Isaac now a TS (edit _ and now a 'cane, not progged to be very strong). Also we now welcome Joyce, predicted to remain a TS.

At 10/6/2 season if 70% done will end at 13/9/3 so almost all forecasts need a strong OCT-NOV to stand any real possibility of contest success now. A 5/4/2 Oct brings it to 15/10/4 and a 2/1/0 NOV to 17/11/4, so even stronger actual results would be needed by most of us.

Roger Smith · October 3

Kirk brought count to 11/7/3 and Leslie to 12/7/3, very likely to go (edit now is) 12/8/3 (and probably not 12/8/4) so will edit "rest of season forecast" table several posts back now, based on 12/8/3. Next edit will also go forward to latest post.

Edit is now added to post ...

Oct 6 _ new edit for Milton (1/1/1 is being added now) ... count will be 13/9/4

Oct 19 _ Nadine, Oscar boost count to 15/10/4.

Nov 3 _ Patty to 16/10/4 and edit for PTC 18 being at least a TS, potential count 17/10/4.

Nov 6 _ Rafael now brings count to 17/11/5

As a scoring post contains following info, it will now be deleted, see Nov 4 post as edited for updates.

Roger Smith · October 5

Milton brings count to 13/8/3 and I edited table above for 13/9/3 as per guidance.

(Oct 6 _ count is now 13/9/3 and table is now based on 13/9/4 as guidance strongly suggests further intensification).

If season ended 13/9/3 scores would be Retrobuc 98.0 and wkd, tae laidir 97.5.

Currently next in scoring is Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan at 90.5; KWx is 86.5 and dww is 88.5.

If season ended 13/9/4 scores would be wkd, tae laidir 98.5, and Retrobuc 96.0

13/9/4 _ (Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan at 91.5; KWx is 87.5 and dww is 87.5)

Top half of table need more storms to start scoring ... 24 (error 11) storms gives an error deduction of 66 (net score 34) so basically if your forecast was 25 or less and you have a reasonable forecast of H and M, your score is positive.

(storm errors count 50% relative to H and M errors)

Will get into scoring details later in OCT ... looks like 16/10/4 could be a target, if so, contest winner would be Ed.

Roger Smith · October 19

Nadine boosts count to 14/9/4. Table edited.

wncsnow · October 19

Better edit again

Roger Smith · October 19

Oscar brings count to 15/10/4, edit in progress.

SnowLover22 · October 21

On 10/19/2024 at 12:20 PM, Roger Smith said:

Oscar brings count to 15/10/4, edit in progress.

Do you consider post-season upgrades? Unlikely event Oscar gets upgraded to cat 3 months later

Roger Smith · October 28

I would certainly note it and discuss alternate scoring result but contest will be "settled" as of Jan 1st count report.

Roger Smith · November 3

Patty brough the count to 16/10/4 and PTC 18 will bring it to 17/10/4 if a TS is declared (and to 17/11/4 if a 'cane is result). Table edited to reflect likely 17/10/4 count soon.

Roger Smith · November 4

Scoring for contest possible results

(note Nov 15, 18/11/5 is now basis of table errors, and 18/12/5, 18/12/6 will be added to potential scores. As 18 is confirmed, 17/11/5 scores were removed

reminder, error point deductions from 100 are scored by formula (E + E^2) / 2, except that storm errors are (E + E^2) / 4. A total score below zero is adjusted to zero. (E = category error).

Residual errors for 18/11/5

FORECASTER (order of entry) _________storms_hurr_major __ 18 11 5 _ 18 12 5 _ 18 12 6

TomCosgrave (IE-3) _____________________ 21 ___ 15 ____ 2 _____ 0.0 ____ 0.0 ___ 0.0

(for context, 21 0 0 scores -15.5, 21 15 2 scores -138.5)

CurlyHeadBarrett (late) __________________ 15 ____ 4 ____ 3 _____18.0 ___ 22.0 __ 25.0

karmac (7) ________________________________15 ____ 3 ____ 2 _____31.0 ___ 34.0 __ 36.0

WYorksWeather (NW-5) __________________14 ____ 6 ____ 3 _____20.5 ___ 26.5 __ 29.5

LongBeachSurfFreak (10) ________________ 14 ____ 1 ____(-1)____45.5 ___ 46.5 __ 44.5

nvck (8) __________________________________ 11 ____ 4 ____ 0 _____57.0 ___ 61.0 __ 60.0

Tezeta (16) _______________________________ 11 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____61.0 ___ 63.0 __ 65.0

Jtm12180 (33) ____________________________ 10 ____ 5 ____ 2 _____54.5 ___ 59.5 __ 61.5

WxWatcher007 (1) ________________________10 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 68.5 ___ 70.5 __ 71.5

cnimbus (3) _______________________________ 9____ 6 ____ 1 _____ 55.5 ___ 61.5 __ 62.5

Yanksfan (9) ______________________________ 9____ 6 ____ 0 _____ 56.5 ___ 62.5 __ 61.5

ineedsnow (32) ___________________________ 9 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____65.5 ___ 68.5 __ 71.5

metalicwx367 (34) ________________________ 8 ____ 4 ____ 2 _____69.0 ___ 73.0 __ 75.0

LovintheWhiteFluff (31) ____________________8 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 78.0 ___ 80.0 __ 81.0

SnowLover22 (43) ________________________ 8 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 78.0 ___ 80.0 __ 81.0

Normandy (14) ____________________________ 7 ____ 6 ____ 5 _____50.0 ___ 56.0 __ 61.0

Brian5671 (22) ____________________________ 7 ____ 5 ____(-2) ____67.0 ___ 72.0 __ 69.0

Diggiebot (11) ______________________________7 ____ 3 ____ 3 _____74.0 ___ 77.0 __ 80.0

Matty40s (NW-3) _________________________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 2 _____ 82.0 ___ 83.0 __ 85.0

ncforecaster89 (38) _______________________7 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 84.0 ___ 85.0 __ 86.0

CHSVol (5) ________________________________ 7 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____85.0 ___ 86.0 __ 85.0

JonClaw (23) ______________________________7 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____85.0 ___ 86.0 __ 85.0

Big Jims Videos (21) ______________________ 7 ____ 1 ____(-1)_____84.0 ___ 85.0 __ 83.0

wxdude64 (late) ___________________________7 ___(-3) ___ 0 _____80.0 ___ 76.0 __ 75.0

SnowenOutThere (39) ____________________ 6 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 82.5 ___ 85.5 __ 86.5

ImleahBradley (19) ________________________ 6 ____ 3 ____(-1)____82.5 ___ 85.5 __ 83.5

IntenseWind002 (24) ______________________6 ____ 2 ____ 0 _____86.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5

Stebo (17) _________________________________ 6 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____88.5 ___ 89.5 __ 88.5

Eyewall (late) ______________________________ 6 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____88.5 ___ 89.5 __ 88.5

DOCARCH (IE-2) ___________________________6 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____88.5 ___ 87.5 __ 88.5

LakeNormanStormin (41) ___________________6 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____89.5 ___ 88.5 __ 87.5

Roger Smith (20) ___________________________6 ____ 0 ____(-1)____88.5 ___ 87.5 __ 85.5

___ Contest consensus (Median) _________ 6 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 88.5 ___ 89.5 __ 88.5

StormchaserChuck1 (4) ____________________5 ____ 2 ____ 1 _____ 88.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5

GeorgeBM (37) _____________________________5 ____ 2 ____1 _____ 88.5 ___ 90.5 __ 91.5

FPizz (18) __________________________________ 5 ____ 2 ____(-1)___ 88.5 ___ 90.5 __ 88.5

___ Expert consensus ______________________ 5 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____92.5 ___ 91.5 __ 90.5

Hotair (28) _________________________________ 5 ____ 0 ____(-1)____ 91.5 ___ 90.5 __ 88.5

Southmdwatcher (42) ______________________ 4 ____ 4 ____ 3 ____ 79.0 ___ 83.0 __ 86.0

Snowlover2 (15) ____________________________ 4 ____ 3 ____ 1 _____ 88.0 ___ 91.0 __ 92.0

cardinalland (26) ___________________________ 4 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 93.0 ___ 94.0 __ 95.0

Yoda (30) ___________________________________4 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 94.0 ___ 95.0 __ 94.0

___ UKMO forecast _________________________ 4 ____ 1 ____(-1)____ 93.0 ___ 94.0 __ 92.0

Seminole (25) _______________________________4 ____ 0 ___(-2) ____ 92.0 ___ 91.0 __ 88.0

Metwatch (NW-1) ___________________________ 4 ____(-1)___(-1)____ 93.0 ___ 91.0 __ 89.0

ldub23 (40) _________________________________ 3 ____ 0 ____ 0 _____ 95.0 ___ 94.0 __ 93.0

___ NOAA median forecast __________________ 3 ___-0.5 __0.5 ____ 96.2 ___ 94.7 __ 94.7

Gawx (35) ___________________________________ 3 ____(-1)____ 0 ____ 96.0 ___ 94.0 __ 93.0

Pauldry (IE-1) ________________________________ 3 ____(-3)___(-1) ___ 90.0 ___ 86.0 __ 84.0

Rhino16 (2) ___________________________________2 ____ 1 ____ 0 _____ 97.5 ___ 98.5 __ 97.5

Torch Tiger (13) ______________________________2 ____ 0 ____ 1 _____ 97.5 ___ 96.5 __ 97.5

vpBob (27) ___________________________________2 ____(-2)___0 _____ 95.5 ___ 92.5 __ 91.5

jlauderdal (36) _______________________________ 1 ____(-2)___ 0 _____96.5 ___ 94.5 __ 93.5

dancerwithwings (NW-2) ____________________ 1 ___ (-3) __(-2)____ 90.5 ___ 86.5 __ 83.5

Kirkcaldy Weather (NW-4) ____________________0 _____ 0 ____ 0 ___100.0 ___99.0 __ 98.0

Ed Snow and Hurricane Fan (6) ______________ 0_____(-1) ___(-1)____98.0 ___ 96.0 __ 94.0

wkd (29) _____________________________________(-3) ___(-2) __(-1)____93.0 ___ 90.0 __ 88.0

tae laidir (IE-4) _______________________________(-3)___ (-2) __(-1)____93.0 ___ 90.0 __ 88.0

Retrobuc (12) _________________________________(-5)___(-3)__(-3)____80.5 ___ 76.5 __ 72.5

______________________________

Kirkcaldy Weather (Net-wx) (KW below) wins at 18/11/5 and also 18/12/5 and even 18/12/6.

Various American Weather entrants are just 0.5 to 1.0 behind at various storm 18 possible results and could overtake KW if some later 19th named storm appears (KW as well as Ed lose 0.5 fro their storm 18 scoring, more if 19 is stronger than TS, and high-scoring entrants above in table can gain 0.5 to 2.0 (S fcst 19 gains 0.5, fcst 20 gains 1.0, fcst 21 gains 1.5, fcst 22 gains 2.0 etc -- all if count increases 18 to 19.) Since table is now based on 18, fcst 19 = E of 1 in table. etc.

We're not going to know the results for several weeks at least.

<<< Table will be re-ordered closer to end of contest to include ranks)

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