5/6-5/9 Severe Threats

[Malacka11]

[A-L-E-K]

Quality garden variety, held it's own for us to get a good soak

[nwohweather]

If the lunchtime line can put a nice boundary down, it may get pretty dicey this evening. Van Wert to Findlay would be an outstanding place from a chase perspective to scout out.

[SolidIcewx]

9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

If the lunchtime line can put a nice boundary down, it may get pretty dicey this evening. Van Wert to Findlay would be an outstanding place from a chase perspective to scout out.

This is one of the moments I wish I was working out by Lima and Dunkirk again lol

[A-L-E-K]

visible doesn't look totally hopeless here later

[WestMichigan]

Pretty good soaker and a great light show going in here over lunch.  A little better than I expected.  GRR mentioned weaking as they came on shore and moved east so I wasn't expecting too much.

[King James]

And then…

[Chicago Storm]

The environment around here won’t be bad this afternoon, right under the head of the jet streak and with a small plume of better ML lapse rates.

Could have a sneaky decent last minute severe threat across the area for a brief window this afternoon, before things quickly slide into MI/IN.

[pen_artist]

Mesoscale disco out highlighting tornado watch incoming for NE & E IL, N IN, and extreme SW MI. 

 

[andyhb]

Today and tomorrow look pretty volatile across a fairly large expanse of real estate. Indiana today seems like the best bet for chasing, good recovery going on in behind the earlier line of storms plus winds are staying more backed than the RAP was indicating.

[King James]

Sitting right on the IL/IN, like my spot 

[nrgjeff]

Yeah I agree with Andy on Indiana above. Illinois boundary right now enjoys more instability. However Indiana convergence zone will have a ton of SRH. Plus it'll destabilize too. I have always preferred the eastern of two surface troughs when chasing east of the Mississippi River. Midwest, Mid-South, Deep South. 

Then more upper level support is over Indiana. Need to catch the right entrance/rear of the upper jet, which is somewhat departing Illinois. Now there's a Plains short-wave coming out, but that is the overnight stuff. Daytime I think Indiana. LLJ also hangs in better Indiana vs Illinois. 

[Powerball]

Nasty-looking hail core moving through Joliet right now. Easily Golfball to Baseball-Sized Hail with that.

And it would be making a B-Line through Chicago proper if it maintains intensity.

[Powerball]

9 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Nasty-looking hail core moving through Joliet right now. Easily Golfball to Baseball-Sized Hail with that.

And it would be making a B-Line through Chicago proper if it maintains intensity.

The cell has weakened a bit, but it was pushing over 80 DBZs for a good minute.

[sbnwx85]

Following this one closely in the newsroom. It's also Primary Election Day in Indiana, so we're going to be busy to say the least.

[Indystorm]

Two tor warnings around the Rockford area at present....2:15 central

[Indystorm]

Increasing svr risk for central and northern IN as cells approach from the sw.  Helicity not all that high yet but will slowly increase thru the afternoon and evening.  High tor parameters are focused for the southern parts but we all know what happened north of Tulsa yesterday.

[olafminesaw]

Quite a notch but no tor warning 

[andyhb]

Pretty nasty environment near the warm front in N IN right now.

[andyhb]

85 kts of 0-6 km shear on the Fort Wayne VAD right now.

[andyhb]

Also that Terre Haute cell is heading on a line for Indianapolis later and already has a strong meso.

[Chinook]

new tornado warning at Terre Haute

[SolidIcewx]

Starting to get a hook

[Floydbuster]

 

Looks like the action should weaken by central and eastern Ohio by 2-3am, thankfully. The most high quality stuff should be impacting Indiana currently and the next couple hours.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Berrien County storm looks spicy

[frostfern]

That tornado warned circulation heading towards Dowagiac MI is getting stronger.  Hint of CC drop in last scan.  

[SolidIcewx]

Definitely one of the funkier shaped tornado watches I’ve seen

[andyhb]

TDS on the supercell near Dowagiac MI, heading up in the direction of K'zoo and Portage.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Looking real spicy just south of Decatur MI

[buckeye]

29 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

Looks like the action should weaken by central and eastern Ohio by 2-3am, thankfully. The most high quality stuff should be impacting Indiana currently and the next couple hours.

2am is 8 hours away.  Who cares what’s happening at 2am, we need to worry about what’s happening in 3 hrs(central Ohio).  Hard to imagine much weakening is going to happen in that time…probably the opposite.