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Severe Weather 5-6 through 5-9-24


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15 minutes ago, Akeem the African Dream said:

radar clear in Oklahoma 

Please stop. Your posts aren't helpful and on a day like today your trolling isn't needed. The SPC has already mentioned several times that a delay in initiation doesn't mean bust. Please read forecasts before commenting.

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2 minutes ago, *IndyMeso* said:

Please stop. Your posts aren't helpful and on a day like today your trolling isn't needed. The SPC has already mentioned several times that a delay in initiation doesn't mean bust. Please read forecasts before commenting.

It's not even a delay in initiation either (storms are developing right now, if anything a bit ahead of schedule). 

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19 minutes ago, Toothache said:

Anyone ever see STP values of 25 before?

Screenshot_20240506_154957_Chrome.jpg

I am seeing forecast soundings of STP (effective) of 14.7 to 15.7 on the most recent HRRR valid for 03z (same as shown).  I think that's maybe about 1 or 2 more than I've ever seen on a model sounding.

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The area between I-70 in Kansas and I-40 in Oklahoma has really lit up with supercells now. It's only a matter of time before we start seeing this tornado outbreak begin in earnest.

We have two tornado-warned cells in northwest Oklahoma now, one by Waynoka and now the cell east of Mutual.

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Just now, Akeem the African Dream said:

0e65f0634790b7a43ee63dae477920ce.gif


.

It's definitely too early to call this a bust. Let's not forget what happened in southern Oklahoma on April 27th; that outbreak didn't really get underway until after dark.

The deeper, richer moisture is further east, and the News 9 livestream just mentioned this.

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27 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Southern extent of the supercells looks a little less than expected rn maybe

No, it does not. There’s 2 waves of supercells. First wave blows through, second wave overnight is what this whole forecast entices. This High Risk is for overnight/nocturnal activity. Scream bust if there’s no tornadoes in central OK by 5am. Really, the timeframe is looking to be 9pm-4am.

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From the new MD

 

 In addition, VWP data from KOUN and KVNX depict a notable increase
   in low-level flow over the last hour, with some modest backing of
   surface winds noted in recent Oklahoma Mesonet data. 0-1 km SRH of
   around 200 m2/s2 was noted in the 21Z OUN sounding, with values
   expected to increase above 300 m2/s2 into this evening. The
   combination of strengthening low-level shear and strong to extreme
   instability will support a rapid increase in potential for strong
   and possibly long-tracked tornadoes as storms spread
   east-northeastward this evening. 

 

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