canderson Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 I’m real worried about Norman to OKC, including Moore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 10 minutes ago, canderson said: I’m real worried about Norman to OKC, including Moore. Me too. There's nothing too concerning on that storm around Gracemont and Binger just yet, but it wouldn't take much at all for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 That is a terrifying image. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 The OKC supercell turned into a line instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Just got home to Moore… but a very quick chase recap: Had a late departure from OKC at 4pm, but made it to NW Oklahoma as supercells were beginning to mature. I chased the northern OK supercell west of Enid for a while, but it just couldn’t wrap up. I then went south for a more intense supercell. It went tornado warned and produced a lot of lightning. It had a donut whole presentation on radar at one point, but I kept a distance due to the extreme chaser convergence and traffic. I watched the storm in a field near Marshall. Once it passed by, I had to call the chase off. There was gridlock eastbound toward I-35. I made it all the way to El Reno for the tail and supercell. It briefly looked like it might produce, but once I felt cool outflow surging, I bailed back to Moore. There’s a supercell approaching from the west, but I’m not particularly concerned, based on radar presentation. I haven’t read this thread since midday, but I’m assuming there was talk about the setup “underperforming.” I have to give the 3km NAM credit for having a pretty solid handle on convective evolution. It suggested that storms would tend to go linear. It also appeared that upper level winds were slightly more southerly than westerly, leading to storm mergers and linear transition. The more westerly flow is impinging on the unstable environment now, it was, perhaps, just a tiny bit too late to contribute to more discrete supercells. Also, the low level lapse rates from OUN seemed to verify closer to the lower NAM progs, which were probably a limiting factor. They heavily contributed to the underperforming nature of the last central Oklahoma high risk. Even 00z only “recovered” to 6.2 C/km. Marginally favorable at best. Anyway, I’m not saying the setup was a bust, but there are reasons why the highest ceiling wasn’t met. A few rogue supercells did evolve and embedded supercells continue to sustain a tornado threat, at least for the next couple of hours. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 5 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: The OKC supercell turned into a line instead And actually weakening a bit as it moves east. I’m out (but glad it did this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 7 minutes ago, canderson said: And actually weakening a bit as it moves east. I’m out (but glad it did this) It just escalated. Severe thunderstorm warning with a destructive damage threat tag now out for the Moore area, with 80 MPH wind gusts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 PDS severe thunderstorm warning for the cell near Norman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: PDS severe thunderstorm warning for the cell near Norman? Right over my house. I’ll report back if we see anything noteworthy. Looks outflow dominant. Update: Saw several power flashes to the west (from Moore), strong wind gusts, maybe to 50 mph, small hail and lots of lightning, but that’s about it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 TOR for OKC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Well shit. That exploded at the exact wrong spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 A number of tornado warnings in Missouri right now as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 OKC ASOS gusted to 69mph. Just outside of the PDS severe warning. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=Kokc# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Taken from 34,000 feet this afternoon 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: PDS severe thunderstorm warning for the cell near Norman? 80 mph wind gusts would be the reason if so when I read that warning. Which is considered destructive thunderstorm damage. I don’t remember if I’ve ever seen a PDS severe thunderstorm warning. But do remember seeing a PDS severe thunderstorm watch on SPC a few years ago (which I also never thought existed and is rare). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 3 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said: 80 mph wind gusts would be the reason if so when I read that warning. Which is considered destructive thunderstorm damage. I don’t remember if I’ve ever seen a PDS thunderstorm warning. But do remember seeing a PDS thunderstorm watch on SPC a few years ago (which I also never thought existed and is rare). It is rather rare. Only used when an abnormally significant derecho (such as 8/10/20) appears imminent and the tornado threat is relatively low enough to not warrant a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 11 hours ago, ineedsnow said: high risk bust? not seeing any damage that is more than Ef-1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 bust for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 It appears the door is through the tree, not behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It appears the door is through the tree, not behind it. I would like to see a side angle of that. That view is not conclusive, very possible it’s propped up behind the tree. TWC and major news outlets have been caught in the past staging/propping up debris to make the scene appear for catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That's the east side of the river, including 2nd St @ Wrangler Heights. Both these houses were leveled: https://www.google.com/maps/@36.5601045,-96.1527161,3a,75y,282.23h,83.21t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sP4I7JOdB3pNlXvzdOtlO6A!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?coh=205409&entry=ttu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 To address the point of whether yesterday was a bust, per the SPC, the expectation would be for 20+ more tornado reports *AND/OR* a derecho with widespread winds of 80+ MPH. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/prob_cat_mar22.html So technically, once all of the reports are confirmed (there's only 7 so far), this event will likelly end up falling short. But the pedantry of whether yesterday was a bust aside, from a real world standpoint, it doesn't matter. Possibly multiple lives have been lost and at least one town has been destroyed. Plus, there were over 300 severe weather reports in total yesterday, which is impressive in any setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Glad it busted. That coulda been so bad for a lot more people and areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 20 minutes ago, Powerball said: To address the point of whether yesterday was a bust, per the SPC, the expectation would be for 20+ more tornado reports *AND/OR* a derecho with widespread winds of 80+ MPH. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/prob_cat_mar22.html So technically, once all of the reports are confirmed (there's only 7 so far), this event will likelly end up falling short. But the pedantry of whether yesterday was a bust aside, from a real world standpoint, it doesn't matter. Possibly multiple lives have been lost and at least one town has been destroyed. Plus, there were over 300 severe weather reports in total yesterday, which is impressive in any setup. I'm glad someone brought this up. I can't hate on the High risk because it was a very small area that had it. Moderate would have been fine but we did get a truly violent tornado that was long tracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 28 minutes ago, Powerball said: To address the point of whether yesterday was a bust, per the SPC, the expectation would be for 20+ more tornado reports *AND/OR* a derecho with widespread winds of 80+ MPH. Source: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/prob_cat_mar22.html So technically, once all of the reports are confirmed (there's only 7 so far), this event will likelly end up falling short. But the pedantry of whether yesterday was a bust aside, from a real world standpoint, it doesn't matter. Possibly multiple lives have been lost and at least one town has been destroyed. Plus, there were over 300 severe weather reports in total yesterday, which is impressive in any setup. We do this every time. The damage assessment, debris management, and storm assessments will take days. Give it a week before calling bust. As a reference, the April 27, 2011 outbreak only had 5 confirmed tornadoes the next day. It took a month to compile the information and enter the reports. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: We do this every time. The damage assessment, debris management, and storm assessments will take days. Give it a week before calling bust. As a reference, the April 27, 2011 outbreak only had 5 confirmed tornadoes the next day. It took a month to compile the information and enter the reports. Cmon dude this wasn’t like 4/27/11 so no need to enter that into the conversation. the qlcs regime overperformed in Missouri and Iowa and the barnsdell cell obviously went ham. But the main high risk had problems performing all day. A moderate woulda been fine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 13 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said: my “bust “ call is looking good nailed it again 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 hour ago, Tezeta said: Cmon dude this wasn’t like 4/27/11 so no need to enter that into the conversation. the qlcs regime overperformed in Missouri and Iowa and the barnsdell cell obviously went ham. But the main high risk had problems performing all day. A moderate woulda been fine. Right. We can bring up edge/extreme cases as a comparison until we're blue in the face if it just to be pedantic. But while anything is possible, as of now I'm not seeing evidence to suggest we're going to have 13+ more confirmed reports of tornadoes incoming. And that's a good thing IMO. Regardless, it was still quite the active day to top off what's been a fairly acfive season for much of the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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