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Severe Weather 5-6 through 5-9-24


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Looks like a nasty night out there, but perhaps not as insane as some earlier forecasts, thankfully. (I'm just guessing that because my social media feed is going insane with cope threads when earlier it was chasers sayings things like "memories of Joplin 2011".

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3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know most discussion has been OK and KS but three Tor warnings up north of Sioux Falls as well along the convective line.

I didn’t expect a TOR warning fro Minnesota tonight but here we are 

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3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said:

Again…come back and scream bust at 4am-5am. Bulk of this threat was forecasted to be nocturnal, around midnight. Some people need to learn basic reading skills and comprehension before posting.

That's not what we do here..

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Up until this point, there's been nothing to force convective development south of I-40

That said, I would still keep an eye out on the Lawton and Wichita Falls area for more discrete development over the next couple of hours, especially with the actual jet streak moving in.

NWS Norman seems to be on a similar wavelength, because they're now thinking the best timing for severe weather in OKC and southward is between 11pm and 1am.

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Not calling bust on the nocturnal threat, but it’s safe to say the couple discrete supercells earlier that were very similar to what the CAMS depicted underperformed the lofty expectations. There were def some brief most likely heavily rain wrapped tornadoes but overall the first part was tempered. Curious to hear from experienced Mets why they mostly failed to take advantage of the wild parameter space.

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14 minutes ago, Normandy said:

I’d watch the tail end Charlie heading just north of OKC metro.  Low level jet will start cranking more so not ready to say bust yet

That cell seems to be coming together now

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3 minutes ago, vman722 said:

Not calling bust on the nocturnal threat, but it’s safe to say the couple discrete supercells earlier that were very similar to what the CAMS depicted underperformed the lofty expectations. There were def some brief most likely heavily rain wrapped tornadoes but overall the first part was tempered. Curious to hear from experienced Mets why they mostly failed to take advantage of the wild parameter space.

First wave initiated early, before LLJ cranked and helicity values peaked. Those things are happening as I type this….reason why I will say, yet again, the forecast was for 9pm-4am. Midnight is the sweet spot in the timing.

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