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May Medium/ Long Range Outlook


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I can see a warm Winter easily verifying. We need a major -EPO to break through, and right now there are no signs of that in the global pattern evolution: it's a little more stagnant, allowing things like the -PDO to impact, and that has a slight +epo correlation. 

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20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

No one is paying attention or cares since it is rain, but EURO caved to GFS and is now wet Saturday.WB 12Z EURO compared to yesterday.

IMG_3519.png

IMG_3520.png

Yeah, the Euro was late to the dreary Saturday party.  As of the 00z run it had clouds but still nearing 70.

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2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, the Euro was late to the dreary Saturday party.  As of the 00z run it had clouds but still nearing 70.

Last saturday was cold and wet for softball and looking like the same this saturday. Wish our precip would line up with weekdays!

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Kind of odd that we are getting this cold over the next few days with +EPO

(correlation is opposite). https://ibb.co/TtxMtMj

Fits my theory that we are getting more cold with +NAO's these days than -NAO's. For the upper latitude pattern, cold air seems to be going more N->S, than W->E. This has been the case since 2013, and more so since 2019. 

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3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Fantasy run....WB Long range...

IMG_3530.png

Is it just WB or is the CFS predicting that most of the NH except the pole is gonna go colder than the 1981-2010 normal? :huh:

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While we’re looking far ahead, CFS is projecting a crazy active tropics.

I hope folks from lesser antilles up through VA beach are prepared to board up or have evac plans. If I lived in Florida, I’d be packing a Go bag right about now.

 

IMG_6412.thumb.png.113a3a6c55292cc03b655298a85810f4.png
 

CanSips - YIKES

IMG_6413.thumb.png.5f6878e7f19c78682cbcd391ed3c11ed.png

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  • 2 weeks later...

Models have a cooler start to June with -NAO trying to develop.. 

If the ridge over the Davis Strait ends up verifying, that would be good for my N. Atlantic SST prediction of wintertime NAO state, but still a long ways to go (the index measures through September.)

I also think a ridge is going to try to develop over the West coast through June, then it may work its way to the Midwest by July and August then the east by the end of the Summer.. there is a chance it could come here sooner though, but GEFS looks troughy through Day 15.. 

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9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

-NAO building in June on models. 

This, is as the Pacific turns more -PDO oriented. The correlation is there (-PNA bursts associated with -NAO, +PNA bursts associated with +NAO). 

Looks like -NAO/ +PNA.

gfs-ens_z500aMean_namer_12.png

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks like -NAO/ +PNA.

Models were trying to develop an Aleutian island trough the last few days, now it retreated to mostly Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska. That's what I'm referring to when I say the PNA, the N. Pacific pattern since it correlates most with the actual measurement. -PDO is associated with cooler water in the Gulf of Alaska, so that's why it's retreating to more of a -PDO pattern, while the -NAO trends greater on models. They do try to bring an Aleutian ridge in the late part of the model run after June 10th.. I think +days it's associated with NAO.  I'm just talking about trends and intuitive observations.

Edit: You posted the 12z, I was looking at 6z. It does deepen a +PNA low in the long range when you point out.  I don't think that disqualifies the correlation though, although not 100%. 

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