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May Discobs 2024


George BM
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5 minutes ago, Interstate said:

When is this pattern going to break. Looks the same for the next 7 days 

Never? I feel like ever since that epic Feb forecast bust we've been living in this bad pattern. Other than that week or so of toasty weather we've been mostly wet and chilly. 

Bring on the drought and heat! I'm ready for wildfire smoke and 80+ dews.

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2 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

Started out so nice but back to our familiar cloudy, breezy and cool :fulltilt:  Tomorrow does look good but I guess we'll pay for it with two rain days.  Might repeat with a good Thursday, then two rain days

That's an impressive thunderstorm east of Baltimore

I'm finding our climate to be more like PA than Southern VA/NC.  Those GL lows impact us with clouds at the tail end of those vort spokes while areas further south end up with sunshine and milder conditions.  What gets a little frustrating during the winter is that we miss out on the actual precip more often than not.

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3 hours ago, mdhokie said:

Never? I feel like ever since that epic Feb forecast bust we've been living in this bad pattern. Other than that week or so of toasty weather we've been mostly wet and chilly. 

Bring on the drought and heat! I'm ready for wildfire smoke and 80+ dews.

It has been above normal every month.  There have been a number of murky, chilly days, but it has been warm overall.

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3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It has been above normal every month.  There have been a number of murky, chilly days, but it has been warm overall.

Told my family this today and they were completely disbelieving. Frogs in the water pot, frogs in the water pot…

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

It has been above normal every month.  There have been a number of murky, chilly days, but it has been warm overall.

You are correct. I guess the cooler periods stand out more because of the effect on outdoor activities. I think it was wxusaf who said we are either torch or cold, not getting the actual "average" of the month. 

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Hi res models handled things well today. Anyone along and east of 83 and 95 in MD has been in and out of showers since mid morning. Things are slowly pulling to the E as the day progresses. 
 

I don’t recommend looking at the euro for next weekend. 

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29 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Hi res models handled things well today. Anyone along and east of 83 and 95 in MD has been in and out of showers since mid morning. Things are slowly pulling to the E as the day progresses. 
 

I don’t recommend looking at the euro for next weekend. 

I really need a nice day next Saturday…

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1 hour ago, mdhokie said:

You are correct. I guess the cooler periods stand out more because of the effect on outdoor activities. I think it was wxusaf who said we are either torch or cold, not getting the actual "average" of the month. 

It's the weekend problem.  The longwave pattern has sent troughs through us on so many weekends this Spring.

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1 hour ago, snowfan said:

Hi res models handled things well today. Anyone along and east of 83 and 95 in MD has been in and out of showers since mid morning. Things are slowly pulling to the E as the day progresses. 
 

I don’t recommend looking at the euro for next weekend. 

To be honest the GFS has been doing better this spring. But all three global models have a rain storm on Saturday. 

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2 hours ago, mdhokie said:

You are correct. I guess the cooler periods stand out more because of the effect on outdoor activities. I think it was wxusaf who said we are either torch or cold, not getting the actual "average" of the month. 

Worth noting that the magnitude of warm anomalies, however short-lived they may be, have been becoming more extreme and are skewing most months AN. 

If we have a month with 3 weeks of -2 departures, then 1 week of +15, that month is going to end up at least +3 AN or even higher. (You can play with the math and see how it works out)

For example, remember that 80 degree day in this January? Take that day away, and Jan 2024 actually ends up just around normal temp wise. 

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5 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

It has been above normal every month.  There have been a number of murky, chilly days, but it has been warm overall.

Bit of an understatement. It's the second hottest spring on record to date in the Washington, DC threaded record, and hottest at IAD. A little cooler at Baltimore, I guess. Sixth highest in the threaded record, although the second hottest at the airport. The old Customs House records should have an asterisk attached to them. It was so hot there the NWS stopped taking readings at that site after 1998.

DC Threaded

image.png.9de6d8382fd138a543a4cd94475fb0cb.png

IAD

image.png.5ac77bb3e6f3df6b652c498d71ac94b0.png

Baltimore Thread

image.png.503d54ba59cbd6d2f6e0cb7cc741d2f3.png

 

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Impressive (at least for our area) hail storm early this morning in Grest Falls. Even got to break out the snow shovel to clear off our deck so that it would dry before family came over for Mother’s Day. 

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9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Bit of an understatement. It's the second hottest spring on record to date in the Washington, DC threaded record, and hottest at IAD. A little cooler at Baltimore, I guess. Sixth highest in the threaded record, although the second hottest at the airport. The old Customs House records should have an asterisk attached to them. It was so hot there the NWS stopped taking readings at that site after 1998.

DC Threaded

image.png.9de6d8382fd138a543a4cd94475fb0cb.png

IAD

image.png.5ac77bb3e6f3df6b652c498d71ac94b0.png

Baltimore Thread

image.png.503d54ba59cbd6d2f6e0cb7cc741d2f3.png

 

Yeah but these numbers are also skewed by the week of 90+°

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